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The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

Red said:

As tragic events unfold in Ukraine, take a moment to consider that the foreign policy goals of defeated former president Donald Trump and his MAGA movement bear a striking resemblance to those of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What does Putin want? His aims go well beyond Ukraine. As the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum summarizes: He “wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail.”

Trump’s foreign policy sought to do much of what Putin wants to achieve, including intimidating Ukraine by withholding vital defensive weapons. Trump, like his role model in Moscow, favored weakening NATO, elevating dictators (from China to Turkey to North Korea to Hungary to Russia), undermining democratic elections, demonizing the media (the best check against power-hungry politicians) and finding common ground with kleptocratic-style government.

None of this was based on America’s interest, but it was in the interest of wannabe authoritarians and illiberal regimes. As Fiona Hill, a former Trump adviser and brave witness in the former president’s first impeachment hearings, put it: "There’s no Team America for Trump. Not once did I see him do anything to put America first. Not once. Not for a single second.”…..

……It seems that contempt for democracy domestically often goes hand in hand with contempt for democratic allies abroad — and hence, sympathy for authoritarian regimes. By contrast, defenders of American democracy are generally on the side of other democratic countries. It’s one more reason we dare not let the MAGA-infused GOP back in power.
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Much of this is factually wrong. Putin has bad taste in his alliances with very desperate failing Marxist countries, for sure. Trump would have made deals with them that would have brought them into possible development according to their abilities to produce stuff. Putin generally just gives out payola and calls it a day. Trump was a capitalist. Putin is a power manipulator. Xi, at least, has capitalist ideas about prosperity. And a broader notion of how his own prosperity relates to others.

Most particularly, while Obama sent Ukraine medical stuff or food and maybe a few small arms, Trump sent Ukraine some substantial military stuff that could be used in the fight.

Biden is a more like Putin. I have said elsewhere that Hillary and Putin are a lot alike, except that Putin is better and more honest and less bloodthirsty. Putin is not any kind of real American. He is in some respects the first Real Russian since the Czars. Russians don't have much hope for stuff like personal liberty, prosperity, individualism. That's why Siberia is still Siberia. The serf mentality is actually the model of psychology behind socialist government worldwide. The Globalist Agenda is qactually more like Czarist Rule over Russia.

Trump is in many respects quite the opposite of Putin and the globalists. He is not that jcomplicated, really. He thinks traditional American values and capitalism are great, and sees where completive interests can make deals and cooperate to everyone's advantage.

The effort it takes to squeeze him into a right/left political paradigm is useless, wasted energy. The effort it takes to create endlessly negative comparisons with every boogeyman in the closet is a waste of human intelligence.

Trump would not have given in on the Russian gas pipeline to Germany. He would have kept American production open and low-cost and would have made deals to supply gas to Germany from our resources. Russia, and Putin, would not have taken any Ukraine moves beyond the "status quo" stalemate in the Donbas. Neither would Ukraine have done jso. Trump would have stood for the Minsk accord to negotiate the issue to a conclusion agreed to by all partis. That agressment might have formally limited NATO expansion into Russian security spheres. It might have validated Russian alliances with neighbors including Syria.

Russia is building nuke technology, and Trump would have matched or bettered that. Russia would have been facing unsustainable military expenditures, and low oil revenues. Russia would be closer to China than, say, Germany, looking for trade and prosperity somehow.
 
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A few weeks ago, perhaps ten days even, Biden slipped up and siad we might be OK with Russia taking a piece of Ukraine's Donbas.

Seeing the rhetoric since then, I don't think that is OK anymore.

What we are faced with is now an issue of "accepting" a pair of separatist states supposedly independent, but who can call on russia fror military assistance within "their" territory. With Russia taking tens of thousands of Ukranians refugees into the Rostov area, he has some basis for arguing that they need a place of their own, like the Palestinians say. Only this is a more valid sort of claim. People actually driven out by Ukranian miitary action after Ukraine refused to negotiate according the Minsk accord.

I think you have to look for more in US rhetoric and policy than Ukrainian sovereignty to justify a refusal by Ukraine to negotiate with the separatists. It starts to look like genocide of Russian ethnic people or political dissidents from a regional minority. We have lots of states that were formed as a result of such facts. Ireland/Northern Ireland. North Korea/South Korea. Taiwan/China. Lots of African divisions simply amount to that.

The United States and Britain had a "separatist" dispute and a war.

The facts on the ground in the Donbas deny the claim that the separatists are significantly composed of Russian"volunteers". Rather, there are many more Ukdranians who came to the Donbas because orf their dislike of the Ukraine general goverernment. Maybe people who preferred or had some reason for favoring Russia benevoence over NATO associations.

Russia is pushing back on NATO expansion, and seemsto view that expansion as aggression, as a threat to Russian sovereignty.

If we don't accept a limit to NATO by treaty, I think it means war.
 
@LogGrad98

Here's something I just found...... a real historical treatment of the Russian position, objectively laid out, with hundreds of footnotes and other authoritative sources to back up the analysis, and it is impartial, so far as I can see. You might have some ability to connect the dots here because of your experience in the geographical area fairly recently. good reading.

www.newyorker.com

The Historical Dispute Behind Russia’s Threat to Invade Ukraine

Putin claims that, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. promised not to expand NATO beyond East Germany. Does he have a case?
www.newyorker.com www.newyorker.com



I put this in this thread because it basically has no reference to Western intentions to run out another Oil War. Hence, it would all run against the fundamental thesis of my thread. Which I still believe is the real purpose of our State Department and Biden policy.

After reading dthrough this article, I have changed my mind on some points. Russia's basis is far more valid than even I have stated in past comments. During the past 30 years, our behavaior has galvanized Russian sentiments against us in massive ways, termed in this article as resembling a glacier moving across the land. Putin could hardly claim to be a russian, standing for Russia's security, and not take a stand against further NATO encroachments.

I now also see Putin's withdrawal from the START treaty and development of new weaponry as aimed at correcting the weakness of Russia in the past three or four decades. And Putin now believes, with China at his back, that he can successfully take this stand. It's not just a weak Putin trying to keep his political support. It's fundamental. If Putin were taken out, the next Russian President would have to take the same stands.

We have made a diplomatic blunder beyond calculation. We will not ever secure Russian oil to maintain our cartel dominance3 over oil or gas or nuclear energy. This is a tipping point in world politics. We were stupid, and we lost our chance to build a credible UN or world order based on our values.
 
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It’s comforting to know that every time I read some diatribe about how this would never happen under Trump and how tough he is on Russia that all he has to do is open his mouth and dispel that notion himself.
 
Red said:
Yeah, sure he is….

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yah know, yah really gotta try to convince me that you're not an idiot.

I keep going back and forth, all around. How can Red think this? Can't be that stupid. Says he believes some damn media source or some damn political wonk with all his heart. Can't be that stupid. Maybe he's just a liar, too, like the people he quotes. I know they know they're lying.

Trump makes fun of Biden, being sarcastic. Says Putin is a genius. Says we should be so smart on the Mexican border to protect our country. Says Biden has nothing in response.

He's just telling us how stupid Biden and others, like you, are.

The key thing you missed. He said Putin wouldn't have dared play that on him. He would have something to say about it. Something that wouldn't allow that "genius" to play us for the fools Biden has made of us.

Please, please.

Please, Red, tell me you're not as stupid as Biden or that demented, lying political wonk you're quoting here.
 
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babe said:
yah know, yah really gotta try to convince me that you're not an idiot.

I keep going back and forth, all around. How can Red think this? Can't be that stupid. Says he believes some damn media source or some damn politicall wonk with all his heart. Can't be that stupid. Maybe he's just a liar, too, like the people he quotes. zI know they know they're lying.

Trump makes fun of Biden, being sarcastic. Says Putin is a genius. Says we should be so smart on the Mexicanborder to protect our country. Says Biden has nothing in response.

He's just telling us how stupid Biden and others, like you, are.

The key thing you misswed. He saide Putin wouldn't have dared play that on him. He's havfe something to say about it. Something that wouldn't allow that "genius" to play us for the fools kBiden has made of us.

Please, please.

Please, Red, tell me you're not as stupid as Bideno or that jdemented, lying political wonk you're q;uoting herfe.
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It's eerie how much you sound like Trump in this post. Congrats you've almost completed your transformation. Just a little orange makeup and surgery for a mushroom **** and you're there.
 
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str8line said:
It's eerie how much you sound like Trump in this post. Congrats you've almost completed your transformation. Just a little orange makeup and surgery for a mushroom **** and you're there.
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I know you're not anything credible,always have. Straight out of the activist stooge pool.

If you had a brain, you would have seen a few posts up in this thread, and elsewhere, that I said Putin would take the posture of the humanitarian, and the protector of the Russian ethnic separatist portion of the Donbas population. I said we were creating this sort of "opportunity" for him byh influencing or supporting Zelensky not to negotiate. You apparently missed the fact, which I noted last spring, almost ayear ago, that a Ukraniian military honcho was lining up Ukrainian forces to go in and put the separatist movement out.

So if the Ukraine jthreatens its own people and they are going to be pushed out of their country into Russia, that means Putin has a humanitarian crisis with hundreds of thousandsw of refugees.

The administration in Ukraine prior to Zelensky, did a cease fire with a promise to meet with the separatists and negotiate. zelensky rrepudiated that accord,the Minsk Accord, saying it was something the prior administration agreed to under duress.

The facts on the ground, as best as I can believe, are that there are not many Russian nationals from Russia who have joined with the separatists, but a lot of Ukrainians from other parts of the Ukraine who have gone there to join the separatists. I can't evaluate who they are or why. Maybe they are largely people with political or cultural ties to Russia. I would believe Russia has encouraged or even instigated the "separatists".

But then comes the question of why Russia is doing this, and you missed the post I did yesterday about the history behind Russia's position.

Russia has decades' of grief to vent about what we have done in the former USSR holdings, which they have taken without strong resistance because of their weak position. But Putin has significantly improved his military, and he now has China's backing. Russia is supporting China's claims over Taiwan, which appear to be a coming invasion of the island that never was Chinese territory. It was Formosa before Chiang Kai Shek evacuated his forces to that island. Japan had held it for some time.

Biden's debacle in Afghanistan has led our major opponents to believe we will do nothing, and Biden is doing nothing but bearding the Russian bear by not getting Zelensky to pull back and negotiate. We keep screaming about Russia's movements, but you're an idiot if you don't know either what Ukraine has done or why Russia is concerned with what is going on. Or why they think they can run this crap on us.

you, Red, Biden and most of our Establishment bureaucrats ate taking us into another stupid war. A war we could avoid if we used our good sense. Without ceding Ukraine to Russia. If we were not just corrupt brokers of kingpins in corrupt countries, we could have credible and beneficial influence, not just get ourselves bogged down in wars we can't win.
 
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babe said:
Please, Red, tell me you're not as stupid as Bideno or that jdemented, lying political wonk you're q;uoting herfe.
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Tell me you’re familiar with the English language…..

Herfe? Well, covfefe to you, you Donald wanna be, you…..
 
Red said:
Tell me you’re familiar with the English language…..

Herfe? Well, covfefe to you, you Donald wanna be, you…..
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I should wear some reading glasses sometimes, or maybe check my typing.

you've passed up a chance to demonstrate a cool head or a reasonable attitude.

A lot of people think Trump is pretty good, in one way or another. I wouldn't tweet stuff maybe, but then jpeople can sometimes be abusive of me without consequence. Trump apparently will fight back even with simple minded nobodies sometimes. Maybe that's not agood idea, so I'[ll pass on doing that here.
 
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