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Collin Sexton Stat Deep Dive

SoberasHotRod

SoberasHotRod

Well-Known Member
The below is just an effort to understand who Collin Sexton is a little bit better. I compared his numbers from 2020/2021 to Donovan's 3rd year in the league and Donovan's last year in the league. I wasn't really interested in making any statement about Sexton vs Donovan, but I just thought it helped to put some context to the numbers.

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A couple of thoughts:
- AST% is ok, hopefully he improves there
- Poor rebounder
- Impressive how well he scores when tightly guarded.
- Needs to improve his pull up jumper, but Donovan stats show that is possible
- Already a good finisher in the paint, especially for his size.
- Defense is really bad

Overall it feels likes Sexton is pretty close to an elite scorer. He seems very capable of putting up all star scoring numbers. He's not an overall good enough player that you would want to build around, but definitely worth what we are paying him.

Feel free to add any addition stats you think are relevant.
 
Thank you for this… can you help me understand the defensive metrics in your table? I’m not sure how to read them.
 
Collin Sexton will put up fine raw numbers, but his impact numbers have been horrific. He’s a sixth man type until he can either pass or defend at a better level.

I will say, however, that his defensive impact metrics are so bad it’s almost to a point where it can’t be that bad because no one is that bad.
 
KqWIN said:
Collin Sexton will put up fine raw numbers, but his impact numbers have been horrific. He’s a sixth man type until he can either pass or defend at a better level.

I will say, however, that his defensive impact metrics are so bad it’s almost to a point where it can’t be that bad because no one is that bad.
Click to expand...
As I said earlier… I don’t understand how to read the defensive metrics, but aren’t his totals pretty close to Mitchell’s?
 
I didnt watch any games last year from Cavs to start the season but from the stats the team was winning and playing good defense with him on the court before he got hurt. No idea if that would have carried on and its a small sample size of 11 games.
 
Pinhead said:
Thank you for this… can you help me understand the defensive metrics in your table? I’m not sure how to read them.
Click to expand...
The stats I used are all on nba.com, and I believe the defensive metric is in their tracking data. It's the field goal percentage of the players they are guarding vs what their expected field goal percentage would be. So the higher the number is bad. It's not perfect, but I think is a pretty good indication of someone's individual defense. Most other defensive numbers are very team dependent.
 
KqWIN said:
Collin Sexton will put up fine raw numbers, but his impact numbers have been horrific. He’s a sixth man type until he can either pass or defend at a better level.

I will say, however, that his defensive impact metrics are so bad it’s almost to a point where it can’t be that bad because no one is that bad.
Click to expand...
This would be a good thread to post some of those impact numbers if you have the time.
 
More stats:

Regarding the idea that Sexton works hard on defense, but isn't effective, here is his average speed on defense from 2020/2021: 3.67mph

As a comparison here are some numbers from Jazz Players last year: Mitchell 3.37, Conley 3.76, House 4.15, Forrest 4.21

As a note, this number typically isn't a great indication of effectiveness as a defender, but does give an indication of effort. I think Sexton probably has some opportunity for improvement on effort.
 
KqWIN said:
Collin Sexton will put up fine raw numbers, but his impact numbers have been horrific. He’s a sixth man type until he can either pass or defend at a better level.

I will say, however, that his defensive impact metrics are so bad it’s almost to a point where it can’t be that bad because no one is that bad.
Click to expand...
I hope the Jazz will sit him down and tell him he can do what he did in Cleveland and put up impressive empty stats, or he can be the leader of this team, show that he can get his teammates involved and play some D. Tell him he has a chance to make this his team. Some guys need to be given that sense of importance and responsibility to break their mold. If he takes to the role, great. If not, nothing much is lost in a tanking year.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
More stats:

Regarding the idea that Sexton works hard on defense, but isn't effective, here is his average speed on defense from 2020/2021: 3.67mph

As a comparison here are some numbers from Jazz Players last year: Mitchell 3.37, Conley 3.76, House 4.15, Forrest 4.21

As a note, this number typically isn't a great indication of effectiveness as a defender, but does give an indication of effort. I think Sexton probably has some opportunity for improvement on effort.
Click to expand...
And it confirms Mitchell just stopped giving a ****.
 
Udidthizz said:
I hope the Jazz will sit him down and tell him he can do what he did in Cleveland and put up impressive empty stats, or he can be the leader of this team, show that he can get his teammates involved and play some D. Tell him he has a chance to make this his team. Some guys need to be given that sense of importance and responsibility to break their mold. If he takes to the role, great. If not, nothing much is lost in a tanking year.
Click to expand...
I would hope with the picks we got and everything else he would see the writing on the wall and know that he can either perform and be a part of something special, or keep chucking and end up being moved for yet more assets and watch this something special from the outside. I am ambivalent about which path he chooses at this point.
 
With regard to Sexton's defense. Obviously very bad... but it is tough to evaluate a young player on defense when they are playing with the roster they had. It was like Sexton, Garland, Osman, Love... sprinkled in with Nance, Tristan Thompson, and then the third year they got Jarrett Allen for a good part of the year.

Because of size I doubt he's ever an impactful defender... very few guys under like 6'5"ish are... but he can be good enough that he isn't a turnstile. He's as competitive as any dude in the league so I think he will try hard at least.

Passing is the bigger concern to me. If he figures out how to toggle from scorer to a creator then he can be a pretty dynamic offensive player. I can't think of guys that did this at a high level... will need to think on it. Donovan struggled... seemed like he could be a good passer when he was in pass mode... and a good scorer when in score mode... but didn't seem to have a consistent mode where he toggled back and forth based on what was going on with how the defense was playing. JC has struggled with this when he tries to do anything other than just score. So I'm skeptical Collin can get this right but I'm all in on trying. His scoring is pretty effing efficient for a volume scoring young guard. If one or two of the other things really click then he's like an AS level player. If not he is paid like a super high-level bench player so maybe that is where he ends up.

This summer has to have been quite humbling for the kid. Not a lot of interest... so maybe he has the self awareness and work ethic to either change his game a bit or embrace a super scorer bench roles someday.

Either way he should be a fun guy to root for. Congrats on the Sexton everybody.
 
Okay... thought of one guy that made a jump in creation... Demar DeRozan... Does Sexton have the ability to go from 4ish assists to 6ish assists a game? I think that for him to fully be realized you will need a wing that can be a Tyrese Haliburton type. Like if Detroit didn't get Ivey I think Sexton with Cade is an awesome combo... potentially.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Okay... thought of one guy that made a jump in creation... Demar DeRozan... Does Sexton have the ability to go from 4ish assists to 6ish assists a game? I think that for him to fully be realized you will need a wing that can be a Tyrese Haliburton type. Like if Detroit didn't get Ivey I think Sexton with Cade is an awesome combo... potentially.
Click to expand...
Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Dyson Daniels (if he's good)... would be the type of backcourt mates you'd want.

One guy to keep an eye on is Lonzo Ball. He may just be done... this knee thing is scary as hell. I wonder if they struggle if they would do a Ball for Conley deal and give us something for our trouble. Ayo would be another potential fit with Collin... and they don't have much they can send in the way of picks... so maybe Ayo could be on the table?

Dalano Banton could be a fit... but I doubt he's ever a good shooter.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
This would be a good thread to post some of those impact numbers if you have the time.
Click to expand...

Lazy, but these are both descending for his first 3 seasons. Sexton's defense isn't as woeful as it was when he entered the league, and Mitchell's defense got significantly worse over time. There's a convergence there. But it's obviously not good to be on Mitchell's level defensively. Offensively, there's still a massive gap in the impact metrics. One thing I always gave credit to Mitchell for was that he led elite offenses. Even if he wasn't the most efficient player, he was definitely one of the best offensive engines in the league. His ability to cut the defense and kick out to the perimeter was the best, if not the best in the entire league. I'm curious to see how that works out in CLE without the same level of shooting. It wasn't until the Jazz got shooting that Donovan took a big leap as an offensive player. He went from a +2 type of offensive player to a +4.5.

I think Sexton is in that +1-2 range as an offensive player, which doesn't put him that far off from where Mitchell was before his massive leap. Defensively, he's probably as good as Mitchell at his worst.

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KqWIN said:
Lazy, but these are both descending for his first 3 seasons. Sexton's defense isn't as woeful as it was when he entered the league, and Mitchell's defense got significantly worse over time. There's a convergence there. But it's obviously not good to be on Mitchell's level defensively. Offensively, there's still a massive gap in the impact metrics. One thing I always gave credit to Mitchell for was that he led elite offenses. Even if he wasn't the most efficient player, he was definitely one of the best offensive engines in the league. His ability to cut the defense and kick out to the perimeter was the best, if not the best in the entire league. I'm curious to see how that works out in CLE without the same level of shooting. It wasn't until the Jazz got shooting that Donovan took a big leap as an offensive player. He went from a +2 type of offensive player to a +4.5.

I think Sexton is in that +1-2 range as an offensive player, which doesn't put him that far off from where Mitchell was before his massive leap. Defensively, he's probably as good as Mitchell at his worst.

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View attachment 13044
Click to expand...
With Sexton on defense... the question isn't like can he be great... its can he be adequate if there are other good personnel on the court? We don't have any idea there just yet since he only played 10 games last year.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
With Sexton on defense... the question isn't like can he be great... its can he be adequate if there are other good personnel on the court? We don't have any idea there just yet since he only played 10 games last year.
Click to expand...

Maybe it would have turned around with Mobley and Allen behind him....and his issues could be mitigated if he wasn't guarding opposing SG's. But unfortunately, my hunch is that CLE probably does not have their feel good nice season if Sexton is playing last year unless they put him on the bench. The nice thing is that we're not paying him like a bonafide starter. Worse case scenario, I think he continues to put up huge numbers and he will always be able to be traded because of his relatively low salary.
 
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