Collin Sexton Stat Deep Dive

[LogGrad98]

I hope the Jazz will sit him down and tell him he can do what he did in Cleveland and put up impressive empty stats, or he can be the leader of this team, show that he can get his teammates involved and play some D. Tell him he has a chance to make this his team. Some guys need to be given that sense of importance and responsibility to break their mold. If he takes to the role, great. If not, nothing much is lost in a tanking year.

I would hope with the picks we got and everything else he would see the writing on the wall and know that he can either perform and be a part of something special, or keep chucking and end up being moved for yet more assets and watch this something special from the outside. I am ambivalent about which path he chooses at this point.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Honestly think this shows how overrated Donovan was/is. Cleveland overpaid a ton for a 25% upgrade over Sexton and a guy who has shown he's kind of a quitter

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

With regard to Sexton's defense. Obviously very bad... but it is tough to evaluate a young player on defense when they are playing with the roster they had. It was like Sexton, Garland, Osman, Love... sprinkled in with Nance, Tristan Thompson, and then the third year they got Jarrett Allen for a good part of the year.

Because of size I doubt he's ever an impactful defender... very few guys under like 6'5"ish are... but he can be good enough that he isn't a turnstile. He's as competitive as any dude in the league so I think he will try hard at least.

Passing is the bigger concern to me. If he figures out how to toggle from scorer to a creator then he can be a pretty dynamic offensive player. I can't think of guys that did this at a high level... will need to think on it. Donovan struggled... seemed like he could be a good passer when he was in pass mode... and a good scorer when in score mode... but didn't seem to have a consistent mode where he toggled back and forth based on what was going on with how the defense was playing. JC has struggled with this when he tries to do anything other than just score. So I'm skeptical Collin can get this right but I'm all in on trying. His scoring is pretty effing efficient for a volume scoring young guard. If one or two of the other things really click then he's like an AS level player. If not he is paid like a super high-level bench player so maybe that is where he ends up.

This summer has to have been quite humbling for the kid. Not a lot of interest... so maybe he has the self awareness and work ethic to either change his game a bit or embrace a super scorer bench roles someday.

Either way he should be a fun guy to root for. Congrats on the Sexton everybody.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Okay... thought of one guy that made a jump in creation... Demar DeRozan... Does Sexton have the ability to go from 4ish assists to 6ish assists a game? I think that for him to fully be realized you will need a wing that can be a Tyrese Haliburton type. Like if Detroit didn't get Ivey I think Sexton with Cade is an awesome combo... potentially.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Okay... thought of one guy that made a jump in creation... Demar DeRozan... Does Sexton have the ability to go from 4ish assists to 6ish assists a game? I think that for him to fully be realized you will need a wing that can be a Tyrese Haliburton type. Like if Detroit didn't get Ivey I think Sexton with Cade is an awesome combo... potentially.

Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Dyson Daniels (if he's good)... would be the type of backcourt mates you'd want.

One guy to keep an eye on is Lonzo Ball. He may just be done... this knee thing is scary as hell. I wonder if they struggle if they would do a Ball for Conley deal and give us something for our trouble. Ayo would be another potential fit with Collin... and they don't have much they can send in the way of picks... so maybe Ayo could be on the table?

Dalano Banton could be a fit... but I doubt he's ever a good shooter.

 

[KqWIN]

This would be a good thread to post some of those impact numbers if you have the time.

Lazy, but these are both descending for his first 3 seasons. Sexton's defense isn't as woeful as it was when he entered the league, and Mitchell's defense got significantly worse over time. There's a convergence there. But it's obviously not good to be on Mitchell's level defensively. Offensively, there's still a massive gap in the impact metrics. One thing I always gave credit to Mitchell for was that he led elite offenses. Even if he wasn't the most efficient player, he was definitely one of the best offensive engines in the league. His ability to cut the defense and kick out to the perimeter was the best, if not the best in the entire league. I'm curious to see how that works out in CLE without the same level of shooting. It wasn't until the Jazz got shooting that Donovan took a big leap as an offensive player. He went from a +2 type of offensive player to a +4.5.

I think Sexton is in that +1-2 range as an offensive player, which doesn't put him that far off from where Mitchell was before his massive leap. Defensively, he's probably as good as Mitchell at his worst.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Lazy, but these are both descending for his first 3 seasons. Sexton's defense isn't as woeful as it was when he entered the league, and Mitchell's defense got significantly worse over time. There's a convergence there. But it's obviously not good to be on Mitchell's level defensively. Offensively, there's still a massive gap in the impact metrics. One thing I always gave credit to Mitchell for was that he led elite offenses. Even if he wasn't the most efficient player, he was definitely one of the best offensive engines in the league. His ability to cut the defense and kick out to the perimeter was the best, if not the best in the entire league. I'm curious to see how that works out in CLE without the same level of shooting. It wasn't until the Jazz got shooting that Donovan took a big leap as an offensive player. He went from a +2 type of offensive player to a +4.5.

I think Sexton is in that +1-2 range as an offensive player, which doesn't put him that far off from where Mitchell was before his massive leap. Defensively, he's probably as good as Mitchell at his worst.

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With Sexton on defense... the question isn't like can he be great... its can he be adequate if there are other good personnel on the court? We don't have any idea there just yet since he only played 10 games last year.

 

[KqWIN]

With Sexton on defense... the question isn't like can he be great... its can he be adequate if there are other good personnel on the court? We don't have any idea there just yet since he only played 10 games last year.

Maybe it would have turned around with Mobley and Allen behind him....and his issues could be mitigated if he wasn't guarding opposing SG's. But unfortunately, my hunch is that CLE probably does not have their feel good nice season if Sexton is playing last year unless they put him on the bench. The nice thing is that we're not paying him like a bonafide starter. Worse case scenario, I think he continues to put up huge numbers and he will always be able to be traded because of his relatively low salary.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Okay... thought of one guy that made a jump in creation... Demar DeRozan... Does Sexton have the ability to go from 4ish assists to 6ish assists a game? I think that for him to fully be realized you will need a wing that can be a Tyrese Haliburton type. Like if Detroit didn't get Ivey I think Sexton with Cade is an awesome combo... potentially.

Does Luka fit this description?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Maybe it would have turned around with Mobley and Allen behind him....and his issues could be mitigated if he wasn't guarding opposing SG's. But unfortunately, my hunch is that CLE probably does not have their feel good nice season if Sexton is playing last year unless they put him on the bench. The nice thing is that we're not paying him like a bonafide starter. Worse case scenario, I think he continues to put up huge numbers and he will always be able to be traded because of his relatively low salary.

Exactly... I just think if you throw Collin, Garland, and Love out there on defense you can't expect to be really functional. I think Garland may end up struggling a bit sharing ball handling duties with Don this year. We shall see.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Does Luka fit this description?

I mean... Luka is his own solar system. I'm not sure Sexton would be a lot better than Dinwiddie in that role.

I think both guys would benefit from a pass first backcourt mate.

 

[HeatCheck]

Collin Sexton will put up fine raw numbers, but his impact numbers have been horrific. He’s a sixth man type until he can either pass or defend at a better level.

I will say, however, that his defensive impact metrics are so bad it’s almost to a point where it can’t be that bad because no one is that bad.

Cavs were so terrible in Sexton's first 3 years. They went thru 4 head coaches during that period and were trading away all their vets. The first year they just threw him out there with a bunch of grumpy leftover vets from Lebron's tenure (ie JR Smith). They drafted Garland after his rookie season. They had some really bad characters such as Kevin Porter Jr and Andre Drummond on the team. Last year they told him to just play off the ball in a new role and then he got injured. They finally added terrific defenders in Allen and then Mobley last year but then Sexton got hurt at the beginning of the season.

I think there's definitely room for him to improve. Hopefully the Jazz give him a role and he needs to learn to play within the team. He seems like a good kid and a hard worker. No doubt he's already a very good scorer but he obviously needs to do more. Not many NBA players have averaged over 24PPG at age 21 so there is definitely alot of talent there.

THT is another kid that I'm excited about. Lakers never put him in a position to succeed either.