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Official Utah/Minnesota/Philadelphia Pick Watch

sip said:
Well they have had most things go wrong this year and they are still sitting right around .500.
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They are 10-11 with KAT. What has gone wrong besides him getting injured? They went 4-2 without Gobert.
 
HermanG said:
It takes a bad team with a tough schedule.

Check and check.

And KAT coming back isnt exactly the solution. They are 10-11 with KAT against easier schedule than their 12-12 without him. It makes the fit worse and whatever they gain on offense with KAT they lose on defense with McDaniels being out due to KAT being in.
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In a small sample its easy to show how a team is better/worse with a guy. I think the KAT/Rudy splits were actually pretty good. The rest of the team and Rudy have adjusted... there may be a period of re-acclimation for sure. I don't see adding that guy as a big negative though.

We also just flat out don't know how hard their schedule will be, because so much depends on who is available when they come to town. They have a few more road games than home... which is good cuz they *** on the road... but I think mere SOS and counting W/L can be a bit misleading. They just had three home games against Denver, Portland, Clips... I would have said Denver is a loss the other two are 50/50 games... they won all three. End of season they may have some tough teams that are locked in (or out) of the playoffs and have checked out too. They play a team like Sacramento 4 times... what if Sabonis sustains an injury? Well that's 4 games that can turn.

So SOS to me... is one factor... but you can also get some schedule luck with injuries that is unpredictable. I wouldn't guess they make the top 6... I also wouldn't guess they miss the play in completely (the bar is really low... SA or NO made it with like 34 wins irrc) unless they have an injury to Ant. As it stands with normal health I think they have a 70% ish chance to be a play in team.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
In a small sample its easy to show how a team is better/worse with a guy. I think the KAT/Rudy splits were actually pretty good. The rest of the team and Rudy have adjusted... there may be a period of re-acclimation for sure. I don't see adding that guy as a big negative though.

We also just flat out don't know how hard their schedule will be, because so much depends on who is available when they come to town. They have a few more road games than home... which is good cuz they *** on the road... but I think mere SOS and counting W/L can be a bit misleading. They just had three home games against Denver, Portland, Clips... I would have said Denver is a loss the other two are 50/50 games... they won all three. End of season they may have some tough teams that are locked in (or out) of the playoffs and have checked out too. They play a team like Sacramento 4 times... what if Sabonis sustains an injury? Well that's 4 games that can turn.

So SOS to me... is one factor... but you can also get some schedule luck with injuries that is unpredictable. I wouldn't guess they make the top 6... I also wouldn't guess they miss the play in completely (the bar is really low... SA or NO made it with like 34 wins irrc) unless they have an injury to Ant. As it stands with normal health I think they have a 70% ish chance to be a play in team.
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Speculating future injuries works both ways. And for any other teams in this league and their schedules. Thats not an argument at all.

But lets wait and see how it plays out. Its easier for you since you are either right or happy to be wrong. I'm playing a much more dangerous game with my prediction.
 
HermanG said:
Speculating future injuries works both ways. And for any other teams in this league and their schedules. Thats not an argument at all.

But lets wait and see how it plays out. Its easier for you since you are either right or happy to be wrong. I'm playing a much more dangerous game with my prediction.
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I also have a bunch of outs you don’t!!! Yeah they missed the play in but Nathan Knoght missed 12 games!!!

I’ll say this I think they make the play in unless Ant misses 5+ games… Rudy missing 10 games would also affect my guess.
 
HermanG said:
If something close to that happens... all bets are of. All 0 of them. ;)
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Its partly a happiness hedge. If I expect them to make the play in and they somehow fall out I'm over the moon excited. Any pick in the 12-14 range is still a huge win. If it was 8-9 with a shot at Wemby... holy ballz.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Its partly a happiness hedge. If I expect them to make the play in and they somehow fall out I'm over the moon excited. Any pick in the 12-14 range is still a huge win. If it was 8-9 with a shot at Wemby... holy ballz.
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you are way to focussed on rebuilding through the draft smh Danny aint waiting that long
 
We should've gotten additional swap rights in the Beverley and Bogdanovic deals. I'd imagine the Lakers would've accepted us having rights swapping the Nets/Philly pick with whatever their pick was after the potential NOP swap, especially as they probably saw themselves as a playoff team. Detroit would have been a bit more tricky. Should've at least gotten some kind of very-conditional pick swap in the future, even if it were something like "reserves rights to swap ____ pick if they are within 5 positions or less of each other, excluding top 5 picks," etc.
 
infection said:
We should've gotten additional swap rights in the Beverley and Bogdanovic deals. I'd imagine the Lakers would've accepted us having rights swapping the Nets/Philly pick with whatever their pick was after the potential NOP swap, especially as they probably saw themselves as a playoff team. Detroit would have been a bit more tricky. Should've at least gotten some kind of very-conditional pick swap in the future, even if it were something like "reserves rights to swap ____ pick if they are within 5 positions or less of each other, excluding top 5 picks," etc.
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Detroit likely not doing a swap but they have a handful of second rounders we should have gotten. Its funny that every time Zach Lowe mentions the KO - Bogey deal he mentions we got KO and some seconds... He just assumes that had to be the deal. He's said it a couple times on his pod.
 
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