Its Time to Tank

[HermanG]

The anti tankers always throw in absolutes and dumb assumptions that aren’t really true. At this point the best thing for the long term health of the franchise is giving ourselves a better shot at landing a high level young player… having a better pick or better odds at an amazing pick provides that. The doe is cast as far as the current roster goes so we kinda have to play it as it lays. Maybe we end up with a better player at 12 than 8? It’s plausible… it’s not a reason to prefer a couple additional wins imo. It’s pretty simple. If we giving ourselves a 7-8% chance at Wemby and a 25% chance at top 4 it could be a franchise changer. It’s so obviously the preferred path.

Im curious as to what these absolutes and dumb assumptions are that the anti tankers are throwing out?

The way I see it is most tankers argue that building through draft is the only way and getting some percentage units higher chances to one roll of the dice is more likely to land us a star than history of the draft indicates.

Isnt that just absolutes and assumptions right there?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Im curious as to what these absolutes

The way I see it is most tankers argue that building through draft is the only way

You just demonstrated one… the only way… there are many ways… drafting high is a really great way… but anti tankers throw in stuff like “it’s the only way” or “losing is the only priority” or “the highest priority” or that “if you aren’t tanking to bottom 3 what’s the point”.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Im curious as to what these absolutes and dumb assumptions are that the anti tankers are throwing out?

The way I see it is most tankers argue that building through draft is the only way and getting some percentage units higher chances to one roll of the dice is more likely to land us a star than history of the draft indicates.

Isnt that just absolutes and assumptions right there?

And yes I threw in always in my OP… which is an absolute.

 

[HermanG]

You just demonstrated one… the only way… there are many ways… drafting high is a really great way… but anti tankers throw in stuff like “it’s the only way” or “losing is the only priority” or “the highest priority” or that “if you aren’t tanking to bottom 3 what’s the point”.

So your problem is not with anti tankers approach to rebuilding but their attitude towards tankers?

Also I have said few of those things, but its just quoting what Ive heard some of the more passionate tankers say.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The problem for us is getting to those odds. And even if we somehow managed to do it, they are still not good odds. We just have to let this thing play out and give our young guys a lot of minutes. Also, we shouldn't forget the value of play-in experience for our young group if we get to go there.

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It’s not hard to get to 8ish… and while it’s long odds… it’s like 10x better odds.

Play in experience is cute… has not helped the Hornets or Spurs the last two years. Winning 3-4 extra games costs us 10x odds 4-6 spots in the lotto… I will sacrifice the play in experience happily to get those odds. The assumption that we won’t get lucky or that 4-6 spots in the lotto is not meaningful is part of this argument that gets frustrating. Is it meaningful to have a 6% shot at 1B vs. a .5% chance at 1B? What kind of premium would you pay to have the 6% shot?

 

[Eddie Zero]

Tanking is when you have cardboard cut outs in the stands even though there is no Pandemic anymore for the most part.
If the Jazz fans stoped showing up, they would have just played the scrubs all season.
Too many irrational fans that want to see a winning product even if the team ceiling is ****ed without tanking.
I think they were more likely to tank next season than this one. May not need to though

 

[Eddie Zero]

It’s not hard to get to 8ish… and while it’s long odds… it’s like 10x better odds.

Play in experience is cute… has not helped the Hornets or Spurs the last two years. Winning 3-4 extra games costs us 10x odds 4-6 spots in the lotto… I will sacrifice the play in experience happily to get those odds. The assumption that we won’t get lucky or that 4-6 spots in the lotto is not meaningful is part of this argument that gets frustrating. Is it meaningful to have a 6% shot at 1B vs. a .5% chance at 1B? What kind of premium would you pay to have the 6% shot?

This team does not need play in experience if the orgs goal is to replace them with other better players via draft and trades. But clearly they are still trying to win, so my guess is they think that thios roster is good enough to win a ****ing ring just be adding players via trades free agency or drafting well, not drafting high at the expense of getting proof these team leaders are capable of more than a flash in the pan with vets around them, that are no longer here.
They still keep winning and dont care about a high lottery pick sans long odds luck

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So your problem is not with anti tankers approach to rebuilding but their attitude towards tankers?

Also I have said few of those things, but its just quoting what Ive heard some of the more passionate tankers say.

I don’t think I’ve seen any tankers say it’s the only way or that we have to sink to Houston levels to benefit from tanking. Shrug.

I don’t have a problem with antitankers… I have issue with the gymnastics they do to rationalize that it’s not a sound rebuild strategy.

 

[Eddie Zero]

I don’t think I’ve seen any tankers say it’s the only way or that we have to sink to Houston levels to benefit from tanking. Shrug.

I don’t have a problem with antitankers… I have issue with the gymnastics they do to rationalize that it’s not a sound rebuild strategy.

Don't worry they could still lose out smh

 

[Bawse Dawg]

If a team finishes 9/10 are they in the lottery no matter what? Or do the play-in results determine that?

 

[HermanG]

You just demonstrated one… the only way… there are many ways… drafting high is a really great way… but anti tankers throw in stuff like “it’s the only way” or “losing is the only priority” or “the highest priority” or that “if you aren’t tanking to bottom 3 what’s the point”.

I said "most tankers see draft as the only way". I didnt say all. Ive heard that argument from you though, at least in regards to getting top level players.

 

[HermanG]

I don’t think I’ve seen any tankers say it’s the only way or that we have to sink to Houston levels to benefit from tanking. Shrug.

I don’t have a problem with antitankers… I have issue with the gymnastics they do to rationalize that it’s not a sound rebuild strategy.

Ok who is arguing that tanking is not a sound rebuilding strategy?

Also about the first part:

Lots of assumptions that I don't agree with. Lauri might be a solid number two... but to be a contender many teams have multi all-nba talents. That is the hardest thing to find... that is something we will only get in the draft.

I could dig dozens of posts saying we need to go to as low as possible or that draft is the only way to get stars... but I would rather stop this whole discussion.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If a team finishes 9/10 are they in the lottery no matter what? Or do the play-in results determine that?

Play in determines it

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I just hope we’re bad enough to grab Keyonte George.. Brandon Miller is out of the question now,

Actually think we got a higher chance at Miller than George.

I think George will go between 5-8. I dont think Utah will get below 9th. You can jump into the top 4, you cant jump to 5th/6th/7th/8th

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I said "most tankers see draft as the only way". I didnt say all. Ive heard that argument from you though, at least in regards to getting top level players.

Only is the key word friend.

 

[Korisfani]

The problems with tankers:
1) Pretending that tanking has zero cost.
2) Believing that tanking from now on is super easy - everyone else will simply start winning and we'll just go 2-19.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ok who is arguing that tanking is not a sound rebuilding strategy?

Many have mentioned how high picks bust all the time or how no tanking teams ever win titles etc… then they work to disqualify several teams that absolutely tanked and won titles. There are zero guarantees… you play the best odds you can get… and the odds favor drafting very high. Even if the mid lotto odds are pretty long.

Also about the first part:


I could dig dozens of posts saying we need to go to as low as possible or that draft is the only way to get stars... but I would rather stop this whole discussion.

The draft is the primary way we will get star talent. That could be in the middle, end, or beginning of the first round… sometimes even the second. You have to acknowledge the history of the franchise. I’d say most protankers understand this… having a high pick is the most reliable way for us to get star talent.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The problems with tankers:
1) Pretending that tanking has zero cost.
2) Believing that tanking from now on is super easy - everyone else will simply start winning and we'll just go 2-19.

The problems with antitankers is

1 exaggerating the costs of tanking and not acknowledging both the developmental benefits and draft assets that come from it.
2- believing that if you lose 3-4 extra games and only get to the 8th best odds that the tank was pointless.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The only thing that makes tanking hard is players.

Jazz would probably love to rest Lauri half the rest of the games. Lauri and his agent would not.

They want to further his career stats, strengthen his case for an All-NBA team, create value for his next contract, and just generally wants to compete.

Jazz could probably force it onto him, but then you fracture the relationship. You could play complete scrubs (Balmero/Udoka) but Lauri would probably end up feeling some kind of way because ultimately it;s going to make him look worse.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The only thing that makes tanking hard is players.

Jazz would probably love to rest Lauri half the rest of the games. Lauri and his agent would not.

They want to further his career stats, strengthen his case for an All-NBA team, create value for his next contract, and just generally wants to compete.

Jazz could probably force it onto him, but then you fracture the relationship. You could play complete scrubs (Balmero/Udoka) but Lauri would probably end up feeling some kind of way because ultimately it;s going to make him look worse.

We won’t and should not do that. We should not “shut down” anyone. That is something that should be punished by the league.

To be clear where I stand… players and coaches should not tank. It’s a front offices job. If this front office didn’t make us bad enough to get a top 10 pick it’s not because they failed… it’s because they had so much success with their other acquisitions and hires.