Its Time to Tank

[The Midnight]

If we're bad three consecutive years (plus this), we keep the pick. That's nowhere near worth it IMHO. The only way that happens is if we actually fail to become not terrible, which I have a hard time seeing.

Best to just be good starting in 23-24 and let OKC have their 19th pick (or so).

Don't we just have to be bad 1 year (i.e., 23/24, to keep the pick? Say we got the 8th pick next year?

 

[Tremendous Upside]

DA has repeatedly said he doesnt have long term plans because the NBA is so unpredictable that its better to be ready for anything rather than fixating on a set plan. He has put us in a good position to hunt for big names, but he wont force anything (at least not yet).

I see two options:
1) We hit a big name trade along with a targeted upgrade or two and become a legit playoff team and maybe even dark horse contender who will fight for top 6 seeds
2) We do few minor non-committal upgrades with young guys and run with them + current core + rookies we draft into next season and see what they can do and how everything develops... and then we see where we are come trade DL and make appropriate moves (again, only with good value)

Ealiest I can see this team really "pushing" to make improvements is the 2024 offseason because after that 2024-25 season our salary cap situation is likely gonna start turning worse and the clock will be ticking... But I wouldn't be surprised if we made a major deal way before that.

I agree with most of this, but the spanner in the works is that Lauri's extension can't wait for the overall situation to get clearer. Decisions are going to be made next season, ready or not.

 

[HermanG]

Sure. Everything's possible, I guess. But making plans where you need several uncontrollable things to go your way is another matter. People are supposing that:

- Lauri wants to stay in Utah no matter what
- We hit in the draft
- We find FA's who fit AND can get them
- Ainge wants to get back to the playoffs ASAP (this one is objectively not true since he already went the other way this season)

How is Ainge uncontrollable? Is he like a force of nature? Also we might need to hit all 4 of those to be on track to becoming contenders fast.... but to improve to above .500 we dont need to hit in the draft or find FAs who fit. We literally need warm bodies who can outplay Fontecchio, Gay, Dunn and THT. Thats a rookie, a washed up vet, a 10 day contract guy and an end of bench PG who plays weird basketball.

Ainge made the decission this year based on where we were and what was the best course of action at that given moment. Some people here are painting a picture of a guy who has had some devilish master plan but I think he is more of a "live in the moment" guy who with Ryan and Zanik decided two or three weeks before the trade deadline what we were gonna do. Thats how most GMs seem to operate. Toronto, Bulls and Wizards were all waving their guys around at some point in time but eventually decided not to sell... Toronto even ended up buying.

DA was never "comitted to the tank"... if he was then why not trade away guys earlier, why not trade away more guys and why on earth would they call around inquiring about DFS and Collins?

 

[HermanG]

Don't we just have to be bad 1 year (i.e., 23/24, to keep the pick? Say we got the 8th pick next year?

No. OKC owns the pick. If we get top 10 next year then they get our 2025 pick instead. If we get top 10 then, they get our 2026 pick. If we get top 8 in 2026 they end up getting nothing.

But to hold on to the pick we need to suck 3 straight years and that last year we need to be bottom 4 so that bad lottery cannot rob that pick. That 2026 pick is the best of UTA/MIN/CLE so there is literally no sense in trying to tank 3 years to save one pick and risking to lose a pick that has double swap rights.

 

[HermanG]

I agree with most of this, but the spanner in the works is that Lauri's extension can't wait for the overall situation to get clearer. Decisions are going to be made next season, ready or not.

Yeah next 18 months are definitely the timeline where some major commitment has to happen... either a significant build up around current guys (in which case Lauri is extended) or rebooting the rebuild and go with the slow approach building through draft (in which case Lauri is traded).

 

[The Midnight]

No. OKC owns the pick. If we get top 10 next year then they get our 2025 pick instead. If we get top 10 then, they get our 2026 pick. If we get top 8 in 2026 they end up getting nothing.

But to hold on to the pick we need to suck 3 straight years and that last year we need to be bottom 4 so that bad lottery cannot rob that pick. That 2026 pick is the best of UTA/MIN/CLE so there is literally no sense in trying to tank 3 years to save one pick and risking to lose a pick that has double swap rights.

Ohhh.. in that case it's better to just let the pick go man, we ain't tanking 3 straight years, are you kidding me? Who's gonna do that..

BTW who made that trade? DL? What a stupid trade..

 

[Agent#00]

DA said he likes to trade and likes to know what hes getting. highly possible he'll trade those FRP for a star, which means quick turnaround. I don't think he's invested in drafting and developing rookies. I think hes gonna be fishing.

We are a tank loaded with 15 missiles and 60 lbs of claymore ready to fire.

 

[HermanG]

Ohhh.. in that case it's better to just let the pick go man, we ain't tanking 3 straight years, are you kidding me? Who's gonna do that..

BTW who made that trade? DL? What a stupid trade..

For sure. Gotta let them have it.

I think it was the Derrick Favors salary dump.... so extra bitter DL trade.

 

[fishonjazz]

Lol at tremendous upside thinking we cant be a playoff team next year.
We are already a playoff team this year with ease if we wanted to be. Thats with a team that has about 9 guys who maybe shouldnt be in the nba. Next year playoff will be easy to get into

 

[The Midnight]

For sure. Gotta let them have it.

I think it was the Derrick Favors salary dump.... so extra bitter DL trade.

Smh.. losing a first round pick for a salary dump?

Was that before or after the ownership transfer to Ryan I wonder…

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

True, but we've been _very_ shorthanded. If we keep playing very shorthanded, I think we'll lose a lot, if we don't, we could easily have been 4-0 over those games.

You do kno how tanking works, right? Guys like Simone and Agbaji and Juzang and Jones, Dok will start getting increased playing time. As time goes by the jazz become less interested in winning and more interest in developing their young players that need more seasoning, and oh yeah, there’s the fact that we have one of the toughest remaining schedules.

 

[hgb]

You do kno how tanking works, right? Guys like Simone and Agbaji and Juzang and Jones, Dok will start getting increased playing time. As time goes by the jazz become less interested in winning and more interest in developing their young players that need more seasoning, and oh yeah, there’s the fact that we have one of the toughest remaining schedules.

Yeah, given that we invent injuries to key players (or they have actual injuries), I think we'll lose. If what we have right now are, in fact, actual injuries, and all we do going forward is be cautious, then I think we'll be too good (assuming guys are back soon, if they're not that changes things, obviously).

I'm not so sure we are heavily tanking right now. And it's probably a tough schedule, but we've been playing up or down to the level of opposition all year. Not sure how much that actually matters.