Its Time to Tank

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm not following this part. If we end up with the 10th worst record wouldn't we have a 66% of staying at 10 and about 20% chance of dropping?

If we are taking the 4th pick in this scenario then top 3 is 10% #4 is 4% and 10th or worse is 86% chance.... if we are 10th or 11th I don't care all that much... going from 4 to 10+ is the big drop.

 

[Coach Ellis]

I just have no confidence in anyone outside of the top 3 at being true franchise changers to take the 4th pick over a chance at a game changer.

I’m with Cy on this one. Even though the odds are super long, I’d still rather take those odds on a shot at a franchise caliber, than a guaranteed pick of a 3rd tier player. Especially since I easily have at least 7 guys in that tier that I’d be happy with at #10.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, I'm not throwing away any chance at Wemby personally.

You aren't throwing it away in this scenario.. you are cashing in on the low chance you can move up into the top 3... you are getting a good value by taking the bird in the hand.


It very well still might be the wrong call... but throwing away is the wrong term.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You aren't throwing it away in this scenario.. you are cashing in on the low chance you can move up into the top 3... you are getting a good value by taking the bird in the hand.


It very well still might be the wrong call... but throwing away is the wrong term.

Do you have a chance at Wemby with this hypothetical trade? No, you dont. It's throwing away a shot at Wemby.

 

[kcgar]

I am taking the 4th spot. You could then trade back if you want someone closer to 10.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I’m with Cy on this one. Even though the odds are super long, I’d still rather take those odds on a shot at a franchise caliber, than a guaranteed pick of a 3rd tier player. Especially since I easily have at least 7 guys in that tier that I’d be happy with at #10.

I might come around to that thinking.. not sure what a GM would do though. While some might break their boards down into tiers... I am guessing their rankings are a bit more delineated than ours.

Jumping from 10 to 4 would likely cost at least one Minny pick... maybe more. You could also finesse your way to the guy in the third tier you like most while trading back.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do you have a chance at Wemby with this hypothetical trade? No, you dont. It's throwing away a shot at Wemby.

You didn't throw it away... you redeemed it for value and certainty.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You didn't throw it away... you redeemed it for value and certainty.

The other side of it would be you gave away the #4 pick for some penny stocks.

Again.. not sure of the right call here but its really tough not to consider the percentages and such.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I think I would stay at 10 and hope for the best, but it's close. I just think you never want to take yourself out of the running for a generational talent.

On the opposite side of the argument, even if you think the talent between 4-10 is very close, probably only 50% of those players will pan out. I want our front office to have first dibs on making an educated guess for which one will be best of that group.

 

[fishonjazz]

I doubt that Ainge sees pick 4 the same as pick 10. I bet he would prefer pick 4 over 10.
Like i doubt his big board is
1. wemby
2. scoot
3. miller
4/5/6/7/8/9/10 whoever idgaf.
I bet he has preferences on guys even after the top 3.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You didn't throw it away... you redeemed it for value and certainty.

Semantics. You're throwing it away.

Yes, I'm fully aware that's the "smart" thing to do, but Wemby is worth the risk.

 

[sip]

You aren't throwing it away in this scenario.. you are cashing in on the low chance you can move up into the top 3... you are getting a good value by taking the bird in the hand.


It very well still might be the wrong call... but throwing away is the wrong term.

Actually you very clearly are throwing it away. You go from having a chance at Wemby to no chance which is the definition of throwing it away. The only way it even slightly makes sense is if you have another player identified at 4 that you think is a future star. That definitely isn't the situation for me. I probably have 6 guys jumbled together after the top 3 and have no clue who is the favorite at this point. It pretty much changes daily.