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Its Time to Tank


Is the lottery still done by ping pong balls or is it done on a program on a hard drive in Secaucus called “trust me, bro”?
 


fishonjazz said:
For me the point of tanking is to get the best pick you can. I think of 4 as better than 10 or 8 or whatever. If we were tanking just for the top 3 then we did a horrendous job of it.
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Fish, who is #4-#10 on your big board? And how much separation is there between them?
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Fish, who is #4-#10 on your big board? And how much separation is there between them?
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Doesn't really matter. Im not drafting. That is a question for mister ainge. (lol at my big board. I have watched zero total college basketball games and can only name like 6 dudes who will be drafted)

i look at it like this. if someone comes up to me and says I can have 10,000 or i can have 1 million dollars if i can make a 20 foot putt (or whatever foot putt gives me 13% odds or whatever) then I take the 10,000. Im not all that risky though.
Also, in the draft scenario there is a chance that the 1 million dollars actually ends up being less than the 10,000 in the end anyways (since there is no guarantee that Wemby or scoot is even any better than who gets drafted at #4)
 
fishonjazz said:
Doesn't really matter. Im not drafting. That is a question for mister ainge. (lol at my big board. I have watched zero total college basketball games and can only name like 6 dudes who will be drafted)

i look at it like this. if someone comes up to me and says I can have 10,000 or i can have 1 million dollars if i can make a 20 foot putt (or whatever foot putt gives me 13% odds or whatever) then I take the 10,000. Im not all that risky though.
Also, in the draft scenario there is a chance that the 1 million dollars actually ends up being less than the 10,000 in the end anyways (since there is no guarantee that Wemby or scoot is even any better than who gets drafted at #4)
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I don't know anything about prospects either. And even I have a massive drop off from the top 3 to the rest of them. Most everyone does.

And your guaranteed $10,000 could easily turn into $0 too. The top three have SO much more chance to hit than anyone after them. Half the dudes picked between 4-10 will likely bust hard, and no one can separate the players in that range
 
Bawse Dawg said:
I don't know anything about prospects either. And even I have a massive drop off from the top 3 to the rest of them. Most everyone does.

And your guaranteed $10,000 could easily turn into $0 too. The top three have SO much more chance to hit than anyone after them. Half the dudes picked between 4-10 will likely bust hard, and no one can separate the players in that range
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Fair. Even if the 1 million stays 1 million guaranteed I take the 10,000 for sure rather than attempt the putt that is unlikely to go in.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
So three dudes, maybe (not sure about Whitmore in that range at all). That already gets us to pick #6. Jazz aren't far away at all at that point. Hell, if I keep my chance at Wemby, I'll just take whatever dude has fallen to #10 or wherever we end up. Chip on his shoulder guy instead of anointing the #4 player in this draft and whatever pressure may come with that.

Again, if there was an obvious top 4 I understand it way more. But... there isn't. I'm frankly shocked that most people are taking #4, whoever the hell that may be, and perfectly happy chucking away our chance at an actual top guy (the whole reason for tanking).
raw
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Look... its not an easy question... put it this way...

Adam Silver comes to the Jazz and tells us we can get a 3% bump for each of the picks from 1-3 this year for each unprotected pick we give up... how many Minny, Cleveland and Utah picks will you offer up? You gonna throw 10 in the pot? 3 or 4? Just 1? How far are you willing to go here?
 
sip said:
No. The question was are you throwing away the opportunity to get Wemby no matter how slight the chance? If you do the trade for the 4th pick then obviously you are throwing any opportunity of Wemby. No one is going to argue with you that trading 10 for 4 means you are getting great value. That was never the question.
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You don't understand what throwing away means.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Look... its not an easy question... put it this way...

Adam Silver comes to the Jazz and tells us we can get a 3% bump for each of the picks from 1-3 this year for each unprotected pick we give up... how many Minny, Cleveland and Utah picks will you offer up? You gonna throw 10 in the pot? 3 or 4? Just 1? How far are you willing to go here?
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Idk, probably a couple? Honestly I don’t see how it’s a relevant question for the given hypothetical. It doesn’t cost us anything extra to keep our current (albeit slim) chance for top three.

To sort of flip your question. If we have #10 how many future picks do you give up to move to #4? And do you have any interest in doing so when the prospects are so jumbled in that range?
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Idk, probably a couple? Honestly I don’t see how it’s a relevant question for the given hypothetical. It doesn’t cost us anything extra to keep our current (albeit slim) chance for top three.
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In the hypothetical it does cost you the 4th pick. That is literally the whole point of the question. Why only give up a couple? Why not more?
Bawse Dawg said:
To sort of flip your question. If we have #10 how many future picks do you give up to move to #4? And do you have any interest in doing so when the prospects are so jumbled in that range?
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Well we have some historic comp for this. NO traded the 4th pick DeAndre Hunter for the 8th pick - Jaxon Hays, the 17th pick - NAW, a 2020 protected first, and a second round pick (35th pick that year)

I would likely give up a Minny or Cavs pick to move from 10 to 4... Amen is quite a prospect... better prospect than Black or Wallace. Not sure what Danny's thoughts are but sure... I'd do that. More than that? IDK. As Minny and others have taught us... only takes one ******* to make an offer that is a bit higher. If I was sitting at 4 and had the opportunity to swap 4 for 8, 17, and another first... I'd probably do that.
 
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