Its Time to Tank

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I doubt that Ainge sees pick 4 the same as pick 10. I bet he would prefer pick 4 over 10.
Like i doubt his big board is
1. wemby
2. scoot
3. miller
4/5/6/7/8/9/10 whoever idgaf.
I bet he has preferences on guys even after the top 3.

Fish, you have once again outdone yourself.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

No one has given a single pick for who you actually want at 4 in that scenario. If you took a straw poll you’d get like six or more players all getting votes.

Like I get the very basic logic that we are much more likely to be at 8-10 than top three so just take the guaranteed better pick. But the upside of the top 3, and the complete inability to come with a target at #4 makes me so confused why you wanna give up our chance at a top guy. Wasn’t the point of tanking so that we had a chance at those top guys?

 

[sip]

I am taking the 4th spot. You could then trade back if you want someone closer to 10.

If a team wants to trade back. In this draft there may be no difference between 4 and 10. That is how tightly I have players bundled right now and it is simply in the eye of the beholder.

 

[sip]

I doubt that Ainge sees pick 4 the same as pick 10. I bet he would prefer pick 4 over 10.
Like i doubt his big board is
1. wemby
2. scoot
3. miller
4/5/6/7/8/9/10 whoever idgaf.
I bet he has preferences on guys even after the top 3.

Of course he doesn't see them as the same and prefers 4 over 10. Would he prefer it enough to give up any shot at jumping into the top 3? I highly doubt that.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Actually you very clearly are throwing it away. You go from having a chance at Wemby to no chance which is the definition of throwing it away. The only way it even slightly makes sense is if you have another player identified at 4 that you think is a future star. That definitely isn't the situation for me. I probably have 6 guys jumbled together after the top 3 and have no clue who is the favorite at this point. It pretty much changes daily.

Its not the definition of throwing it away. If I received a stock option for $10k and sold it for $100k did I throw it away or did I redeem it for value? Now if it turns out I could have waited it out and it was worth $1M... I still did not throw away a shot at $1M... I cashed out that shot for $90k in profit.

 

[sip]

Its not the definition of throwing it away. If I received a stock option for $10k and sold it for $100k did I throw it away or did I redeem it for value? Now if it turns out I could have waited it out and it was worth $1M... I still did not throw away a shot at $1M... I cashed out that shot for $90k in profit.

No. The question was are you throwing away the opportunity to get Wemby no matter how slight the chance? If you do the trade for the 4th pick then obviously you are throwing any opportunity of Wemby. No one is going to argue with you that trading 10 for 4 means you are getting great value. That was never the question.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No one has given a single pick for who you actually want at 4 in that scenario. If you took a straw poll you’d get like six or more players all getting votes.

Like I get the very basic logic that we are much more likely to be at 8-10 than top three so just take the guaranteed better pick. But the upside of the top 3, and the complete inability to come with a target at #4 makes me so confused why you wanna give up our chance at a top guy. Wasn’t the point of tanking so that we had a chance at those top guys?

Its more narrow than that... you might find this group saying there are 6 or more guys... but among GMs it would almost surely be Amen, Whitmore, or Walker... at this point anyway.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No. The question was are you throwing away the opportunity to get Wemby no matter how slight the chance? If you do the trade for the 4th pick then obviously you are throwing any opportunity of Wemby. No one is going to argue with you that trading 10 for 4 means you are getting great value. That was never the question.

Throwing away means discarding it and receiving nothing... you literally said you are getting great value.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Its more narrow than that... you might find this group saying there are 6 or more guys... but among GMs it would almost surely be Amen, Whitmore, or Walker... at this point anyway.

So three dudes, maybe (not sure about Whitmore in that range at all). That already gets us to pick #6. Jazz aren't far away at all at that point. Hell, if I keep my chance at Wemby, I'll just take whatever dude has fallen to #10 or wherever we end up. Chip on his shoulder guy instead of anointing the #4 player in this draft and whatever pressure may come with that.

Again, if there was an obvious top 4 I understand it way more. But... there isn't. I'm frankly shocked that most people are taking #4, whoever the hell that may be, and perfectly happy chucking away our chance at an actual top guy (the whole reason for tanking).

 

[fishonjazz]

Fish, you have once again outdone yourself.

I was responding to this: "We might take the same player at 4 that we would get at 8-10. There is no obvious pick." and "I probably have 6 guys jumbled together after the top 3 and have no clue who is the favorite at this point. It pretty much changes daily."

I was saying that I bet Ainge knows who he would want at 4 and couldn't be sure that player would be available at 8-10 therefore it would make a difference to him even if it doesn't make a difference to some posters.

 

[fishonjazz]

Of course he doesn't see them as the same and prefers 4 over 10. Would he prefer it enough to give up any shot at jumping into the top 3? I highly doubt that.

He might. No way to know. I haven't spoken to him lately about his big board.

 

[fishonjazz]

No one has given a single pick for who you actually want at 4 in that scenario. If you took a straw poll you’d get like six or more players all getting votes.

Like I get the very basic logic that we are much more likely to be at 8-10 than top three so just take the guaranteed better pick. But the upside of the top 3, and the complete inability to come with a target at #4 makes me so confused why you wanna give up our chance at a top guy. Wasn’t the point of tanking so that we had a chance at those top guys?

For me the point of tanking is to get the best pick you can. I think of 4 as better than 10 or 8 or whatever. If we were tanking just for the top 3 then we did a horrendous job of it.