Its Time to Tank

[Bawse Dawg]

Its more narrow than that... you might find this group saying there are 6 or more guys... but among GMs it would almost surely be Amen, Whitmore, or Walker... at this point anyway.

So three dudes, maybe (not sure about Whitmore in that range at all). That already gets us to pick #6. Jazz aren't far away at all at that point. Hell, if I keep my chance at Wemby, I'll just take whatever dude has fallen to #10 or wherever we end up. Chip on his shoulder guy instead of anointing the #4 player in this draft and whatever pressure may come with that.

Again, if there was an obvious top 4 I understand it way more. But... there isn't. I'm frankly shocked that most people are taking #4, whoever the hell that may be, and perfectly happy chucking away our chance at an actual top guy (the whole reason for tanking).

 

[fishonjazz]

Fish, you have once again outdone yourself.

I was responding to this: "We might take the same player at 4 that we would get at 8-10. There is no obvious pick." and "I probably have 6 guys jumbled together after the top 3 and have no clue who is the favorite at this point. It pretty much changes daily."

I was saying that I bet Ainge knows who he would want at 4 and couldn't be sure that player would be available at 8-10 therefore it would make a difference to him even if it doesn't make a difference to some posters.

 

[fishonjazz]

Of course he doesn't see them as the same and prefers 4 over 10. Would he prefer it enough to give up any shot at jumping into the top 3? I highly doubt that.

He might. No way to know. I haven't spoken to him lately about his big board.

 

[fishonjazz]

No one has given a single pick for who you actually want at 4 in that scenario. If you took a straw poll you’d get like six or more players all getting votes.

Like I get the very basic logic that we are much more likely to be at 8-10 than top three so just take the guaranteed better pick. But the upside of the top 3, and the complete inability to come with a target at #4 makes me so confused why you wanna give up our chance at a top guy. Wasn’t the point of tanking so that we had a chance at those top guys?

For me the point of tanking is to get the best pick you can. I think of 4 as better than 10 or 8 or whatever. If we were tanking just for the top 3 then we did a horrendous job of it.

 

[infection]

Is the lottery still done by ping pong balls or is it done on a program on a hard drive in Secaucus called “trust me, bro”?

 

[Bawse Dawg]

For me the point of tanking is to get the best pick you can. I think of 4 as better than 10 or 8 or whatever. If we were tanking just for the top 3 then we did a horrendous job of it.

Fish, who is #4-#10 on your big board? And how much separation is there between them?

 

[Jingled]

looks like we likely won't be able to out-tank the Blazers.


View: https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1636827196399525888

 

[fishonjazz]

Fish, who is #4-#10 on your big board? And how much separation is there between them?

Doesn't really matter. Im not drafting. That is a question for mister ainge. (lol at my big board. I have watched zero total college basketball games and can only name like 6 dudes who will be drafted)

i look at it like this. if someone comes up to me and says I can have 10,000 or i can have 1 million dollars if i can make a 20 foot putt (or whatever foot putt gives me 13% odds or whatever) then I take the 10,000. Im not all that risky though.
Also, in the draft scenario there is a chance that the 1 million dollars actually ends up being less than the 10,000 in the end anyways (since there is no guarantee that Wemby or scoot is even any better than who gets drafted at #4)

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Doesn't really matter. Im not drafting. That is a question for mister ainge. (lol at my big board. I have watched zero total college basketball games and can only name like 6 dudes who will be drafted)

i look at it like this. if someone comes up to me and says I can have 10,000 or i can have 1 million dollars if i can make a 20 foot putt (or whatever foot putt gives me 13% odds or whatever) then I take the 10,000. Im not all that risky though.
Also, in the draft scenario there is a chance that the 1 million dollars actually ends up being less than the 10,000 in the end anyways (since there is no guarantee that Wemby or scoot is even any better than who gets drafted at #4)

I don't know anything about prospects either. And even I have a massive drop off from the top 3 to the rest of them. Most everyone does.

And your guaranteed $10,000 could easily turn into $0 too. The top three have SO much more chance to hit than anyone after them. Half the dudes picked between 4-10 will likely bust hard, and no one can separate the players in that range

 

[fishonjazz]

I don't know anything about prospects either. And even I have a massive drop off from the top 3 to the rest of them. Most everyone does.

And your guaranteed $10,000 could easily turn into $0 too. The top three have SO much more chance to hit than anyone after them. Half the dudes picked between 4-10 will likely bust hard, and no one can separate the players in that range

Fair. Even if the 1 million stays 1 million guaranteed I take the 10,000 for sure rather than attempt the putt that is unlikely to go in.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Fair. Even if the 1 million stays 1 million guaranteed I take the 10,000 for sure rather than attempt the putt that is unlikely to go in.

But missing the putt also gives you like $8500, or whatever... the analogy just isn't holding up.

I'll stop harping on it though.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So three dudes, maybe (not sure about Whitmore in that range at all). That already gets us to pick #6. Jazz aren't far away at all at that point. Hell, if I keep my chance at Wemby, I'll just take whatever dude has fallen to #10 or wherever we end up. Chip on his shoulder guy instead of anointing the #4 player in this draft and whatever pressure may come with that.

Again, if there was an obvious top 4 I understand it way more. But... there isn't. I'm frankly shocked that most people are taking #4, whoever the hell that may be, and perfectly happy chucking away our chance at an actual top guy (the whole reason for tanking).

Look... its not an easy question... put it this way...

Adam Silver comes to the Jazz and tells us we can get a 3% bump for each of the picks from 1-3 this year for each unprotected pick we give up... how many Minny, Cleveland and Utah picks will you offer up? You gonna throw 10 in the pot? 3 or 4? Just 1? How far are you willing to go here?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No. The question was are you throwing away the opportunity to get Wemby no matter how slight the chance? If you do the trade for the 4th pick then obviously you are throwing any opportunity of Wemby. No one is going to argue with you that trading 10 for 4 means you are getting great value. That was never the question.

You don't understand what throwing away means.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

looks like we likely won't be able to out-tank the Blazers.


View: https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1636827196399525888

This should not be legal.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Look... its not an easy question... put it this way...

Adam Silver comes to the Jazz and tells us we can get a 3% bump for each of the picks from 1-3 this year for each unprotected pick we give up... how many Minny, Cleveland and Utah picks will you offer up? You gonna throw 10 in the pot? 3 or 4? Just 1? How far are you willing to go here?

Idk, probably a couple? Honestly I don’t see how it’s a relevant question for the given hypothetical. It doesn’t cost us anything extra to keep our current (albeit slim) chance for top three.

To sort of flip your question. If we have #10 how many future picks do you give up to move to #4? And do you have any interest in doing so when the prospects are so jumbled in that range?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Idk, probably a couple? Honestly I don’t see how it’s a relevant question for the given hypothetical. It doesn’t cost us anything extra to keep our current (albeit slim) chance for top three.

In the hypothetical it does cost you the 4th pick. That is literally the whole point of the question. Why only give up a couple? Why not more?

To sort of flip your question. If we have #10 how many future picks do you give up to move to #4? And do you have any interest in doing so when the prospects are so jumbled in that range?

Well we have some historic comp for this. NO traded the 4th pick DeAndre Hunter for the 8th pick - Jaxon Hays, the 17th pick - NAW, a 2020 protected first, and a second round pick (35th pick that year)

I would likely give up a Minny or Cavs pick to move from 10 to 4... Amen is quite a prospect... better prospect than Black or Wallace. Not sure what Danny's thoughts are but sure... I'd do that. More than that? IDK. As Minny and others have taught us... only takes one ******* to make an offer that is a bit higher. If I was sitting at 4 and had the opportunity to swap 4 for 8, 17, and another first... I'd probably do that.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

In the hypothetical it does cost you the 4th pick.

No it doesn’t. It costs you a few spots in your draft position, for a chance at an all time great prospect, or two blue chippers. Easy choice for me. But doesn’t look like anyone is being convinced either way.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The assumption that Wemby, Scoot, and Miller are like all guaranteed all stars and 4-10 are likely all hard busts and that is how the draft is viewed… that is LOUD wrong. It’s a strong draft imo but the 4th through 8th guys have some drawbacks… but a guy like Jarace Walker I have a hard time seeing as a bust… even if he’s not a knockdown shooter… Cam may not be an all star but that guys gonna be in the league a long time… there is absolutely some differentiation between 4-12… some teams may have Amen in a tier on his own.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No it doesn’t. It costs you a few spots in your draft position, for a chance at an all time great prospect, or two blue chippers. Easy choice for me. But doesn’t look like anyone is being convinced either way.

Okay you buy a stock option for 10k and have an opportunity to sell it for 100K… it has a 10% chance to go to 1M and a 90% chance to go to 10k or slightly less… when the 90% shot happens and you walk away with 10k will you feel the 90k loss?

I have a friend who literally had this happen… he will bring it up constantly… it was 15 years ago. He very much thinks he lost something.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you want to argue about it you absolutely can’t discount the draft position or the prospects after the top 3… we have very real historical evidence this spots are worth multiple firsts. There is a very real cost in this fake hypothetical. If you think the cost is worth it then great. It very well might be… I’m not mocking those that are choosing that side.