2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Handlogten's Heros]

The one are where "unknown" helps is the draft. The draft is basically just a hype machine anyways. There have been many players who rise or maintain a high draft position simply due to not playing. Compared to other lottery picks over the years, we have an encyclopedia of info on Bilal.

This is a Jazz forum right? The last times we had high draft picks we drafted Exum and Kanter lol.

Yes and that didn’t work out all that well… and on Exum he was projected to go 3rd or 4th and Orlando went Gordon instead… pushing him down to us. I think with most foreign guys they end up going a spot or three lower than mocks have them in general.

Both guys came into the process really highly regarded… only takes one *******… but I doubt one of those teams reaches and I’m all good taking a different guy if they do.

 

[NUMBERICA]

If Exum never had injury issues he would have developed enough to have a long NBA career.

You do not know that nor do you have any quantitative data to suggest it. It’s quite the opposite. If you believe that still, I doubt there is anything anyone can say to convince you otherwise. I disagree with the qualitative analysis also (speed doesn't matter if you can't get to the rim, he was a weak team defender, was not really a PG/was a turnover machine).

Neither of us know the counterfactual or will ever find the out, so let’s agree to disagree instead of have one of those insane longform debates that all but ~four posters hate.

 

[KqWIN]

You do not know that nor do you have any quantitative data to suggest it. It’s quite the opposite. If you believe that still, I doubt there is anything anyone can say to convince you otherwise. I disagree with the qualitative analysis also (speed doesn't matter if you can't get to the rim, he was a weak team defender, was not really a PG/was a turnover machine).

Neither of us know the counterfactual or will ever find the out, so let’s agree to disagree instead of have one of those insane longform debates that all but ~four posters hate.

We can agree to disagree. I would just say that the injuries were extra punishing for Exum because he greatly needed game experience and summers to work on his game. No one drafted him thinking he was a player ready to contribute day one. He was a developmental prospect who never who never really had the opportunity to improve because he was on constant rehab. I have seen enough to think that the Kobe comparisons were stupid….but in my mind he was definitely good enough to play in the league for 10 years had he not had so many injuries.

 

[fishonjazz]

The one are where "unknown" helps is the draft. The draft is basically just a hype machine anyways. There have been many players who rise or maintain a high draft position simply due to not playing. Compared to other lottery picks over the years, we have an encyclopedia of info on Bilal.

This is a Jazz forum right? The last times we had high draft picks we drafted Exum and Kanter lol.

Kanter is another good one to add to the list with Millicic, tstisvilli, bargnani, vessley, herzona, exum. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[KqWIN]

Yes and that didn’t work out all that well… and on Exum he was projected to go 3rd or 4th and Orlando went Gordon instead… pushing him down to us. I think with most foreign guys they end up going a spot or three lower than mocks have them in general.

Both guys came into the process really highly regarded… only takes one *******… but I doubt one of those teams reaches and I’m all good taking a different guy if they do.

Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t. I’m not arguing whether it is good or not. What I’m saying is that GMs and decision makers like the unknown when it comes to the draft. Almost every draft there is someone who barely played or didn’t play at all and it helps their draft case.

 

[cowhide]

I would say that without 42 season ending injuries Exum would probably still be in the league today and would be on his way to a 10+ year NBA career. Not what you want from the 5th pick and not what you want from the guy with supposed sky high potential, but it's really not out of the ordinary. Top 5 picks bust and disappoint all the time regardless of where they played before the NBA.

Having said that, no two scenarios are the same. Exum was playing HS basketball in Australia whereas Bilal has at least been playing in professional leagues and his trajectory is unique. While not as legendary as the Anthony Davis growth spurt, things can change really fast when you grow 8 inches in two years. He was unknown even in France not too long ago. Up until like two weeks ago no one was saying he was better than Sidy or Rupert. It's confusing even some French fans who watch the youth levels closely.

I really think we're only at the beginning of his upward trajectory, but it's only fair to consider how far away he is right now. Offensively, he might be too raw for it to materialize into something great. But defensively I think he can come in and contribute right away. He's obviously got physical tools, but he was super engaged on defense when I watched him and he also has a knack for "doing stuff". One thing that was super disappointing about Exum is that he never super active. Didn't get a ton of rebounds, steals, deflections etc. When your offensive game is so raw you've got to find other ways to contribute. While both were hesitant to shoot, Exum kinda stayed in the corner praying he didn't have to shoot an open 3. Bilal is at least cutting, crashing the glass, and looking to push whenever he creates a turnover or gets a defensive rebound. There's no softness to him.

That's a lot of words to say that Bilal's mental game looks MUCH better and I would also say that he is way more impressive as an athlete. It's not just his vertical, his footwork on eurosteps and dexterity in the air is crazy. Makes it look easy.

I still think his most likely outcome is a McDaniels/Herb Jones type. Someone who is a complete defensive menace and does just enough to stay on the court. He has the upside to be much, much more on offense but it will take a ton of development. Defensively I think he's actually one of the safer picks in the draft. The defensive tools and mentality are in "can't fail" territory.

Nice post. I just don't think he is worthy of the nineth pick but I would definitely take him at 16 if he is available.

 

[KqWIN]

Kanter is another good one to add to the list with Millicic, tstisvilli, bargnani, vessley, herzona, exum. Thanks for the reminder.

TBH, I think the whole “unkown” European bust debate is a thing of a past. American players bust all the time too. What happened in the past is teams did not scout as well in Europe, not the same anymore. If an oversees player does or doesn’t bust it’s not because there was a lack of scouting like there was before.

 

[KqWIN]

Nice post. I just don't think he is worthy of the nineth pick but I would definitely take him at 16 if he is available.

That’s fair. There are real concerns/question marks and the other prospects at #9 aren’t bad either.

 

[NUMBERICA]

TBH, I think the whole “unkown” European bust debate is a thing of a past. American players bust all the time too. What happened in the past is teams did not scout as well in Europe, not the same anymore. If an oversees player does or doesn’t bust it’s not because there was a lack of scouting like there was before.

What are you even scouting if the competition is completely incomparable to the NBA? That's my point.

It will be interesting to see what Bilal does on the senior team, but this league isn't exactly the ACB, NCAA, or G-League (which has issues, but is still grown adults that were mostly high level players in the NCAA), either.

 

[cowhide]

Kanter is another good one to add to the list with Millicic, tstisvilli, bargnani, vessley, herzona, exum. Thanks for the reminder.

There are plenty of top American players who have busted too. The Draft is a crapshoot and no one hits on their picks all the time look at all the players drafted before Karl Malone.

 

[KqWIN]

What are you even scouting if the competition is completely incomparable to the NBA? That's my point.

It will be interesting to see what Bilal does on the senior team, but this league isn't exactly the ACB or the NCAA, either.

I’d say the NCAA is completely incomparable to the NBA. The French senior league is MUCH better. They would completely destroy any NCAA team. By the end of the French season, he might have double the senior minutes he does now so a lot can change.

The junior French League…who the hell knows what that means. But there also likely going to be two guys ahead of him that have only dominated sus youth competition.

Some players don’t even have college games to scout, so it’s not like Bilal’s resume is that lacking.

 

[fishonjazz]

There are plenty of top American players who have busted too.

I agree. I think there is a higher percentage of the foreigners who bust doe. Also a higher percentage of homegrown players seem to not be busts. Would be interesting to see the numbers on this. General feeling to me is that a foreign player drafted in the top 10 has a higher percentage chance of being a bust doe.

Seems like they do better when drafted a litte later for some reason (giannis, jokic, ginobli, tony parker, etc)

 

[Elizah Huge]

Are any of the French wings a better prospect than Ousmane Dieng last year?

 

[NUMBERICA]

Are any of the French wings a better prospect than Ousmane Dieng last year?

Rayan Rupert rings every bell Dieng did last year. Was Dieng good? Because I pegged him as a dude whose name I would hear 10 times ever again for the rest of my life. This is the 2nd time since the draft I have come across anyone talking about him, FWIW.

I think Bilal looks like a basketball player and Cissoko is super interesting (is a Batum comp too off?). Rupert and Dieng just look like freaks that aren't skilled enough at basketball to me.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I agree. I think there is a higher percentage of the foreigners who bust doe. Also a higher percentage of homegrown players seem to not be busts. Would be interesting to see the numbers on this. General feeling to me is that a foreign player drafted in the top 10 has a higher percentage chance of being a bust doe.

Seems like they do better when drafted a litte later for some reason (giannis, jokic, ginobli, tony parker, etc)

The list goes on and on and on. Hayes sucks, Caboclo a bust, Pokusevski sucks, Bolmaro a bust, Doumbouya a bust, Bitadze sucks, Samanic sucks, Garuba sucks, Musa sucks.

Looks like the only good international players drafted in the last 5 years are Doncic, Giddey and Sengun.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Rayan Rupert rings every bell Dieng did last year. Was Dieng good? Because I pegged him as a dude whose name I would hear 10 times ever again for the rest of my life. This is the 2nd time since the draft I have come across anyone talking about him, FWIW.

I think Bilal has some real promise and Cissoko is super interesting (is a Batum comp too off?).

Dieng was not ready to contribute at all this year and I think he sucks to be honest. That’s kind of the point I’m trying to make I don’t think any of them are better prospects than him at the same point in time.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I would take Sidy over Rupert and Bilal all day.

 

[KqWIN]

Rayan Rupert rings every bell Dieng did last year. Was Dieng good? Because I pegged him as a dude whose name I would hear 10 times ever again for the rest of my life. This is the 2nd time since the draft I have come across anyone talking about him, FWIW.

Not really similar prospects. Dieng was a tall shooter/scorer who didn’t put the ball in the basket very well….but some believed he could get better.

Rupert is a defensive prospect and everyone kinda knows he will struggle on offense.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Dieng was not ready to contribute at all this year and I think he sucks to be honest. That’s kind of the point I’m trying to make I don’t think any of them are better prospects than him at the same point in time.

I definitely disagree with Cissoko, and again, I think Bilal looks like an NBA player (as in moves like one, appears to have ALL the ideal physical attributes and biomechanical movment, not just some long awkward freak). I actually think Rupert is more promising than Dieng (he's not awkward, at least), but he also looks like the annual "WOW LOOK AT HOW BIG AND FAST THIS GUY IS BUT HE JUST NEEDS TO GET GOOD AT BASKETBALL!" pick that doesn't pan out.

I also don't give a **** that he once played PG. There are millions of bad players that have played point at some level of competition. Means basically nothing and I'm tired of hearing about it. It's in the same sphere as putting on 15 pounds of muscle over the offseason.

 

[KqWIN]

The list goes on and on and on. Hayes sucks, Caboclo a bust, Pokusevski sucks, Bolmaro a bust, Doumbouya a bust, Bitadze sucks, Samanic sucks, Garuba sucks, Musa sucks.

Looks like the only good international players drafted in the last 5 years are Doncic, Giddey and Sengun.

There’s a longer list of American players that suck. There’s just a lot more American players so of course there’s going to be more that suck and more that don’t.