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Trade up? What are you willing to give up?

Handlogten's Heros said:
So to directly answer the question...

If it is 9 plus one future first round pick to move to 6 and select Cam/Amen I would do it.

If it is 9 plus 3 future firsts to move to #3 I would probably do that too. Would be worth it for Scoot or Miller. Its a big bet but I think its the type of bet we should make now... so in 2 years we can make the follow up move.
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Yeah, I agree. We have plenty of picks to make a big bet like this. Whether or not a team is willing to deal, that's the bigger questions.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Yeah, I agree. We have plenty of picks to make a big bet like this. Whether or not a team is willing to deal, that's the bigger questions.
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I think its the right time for a bet like this too... as a player can be ready in a year or two to really help. Then you make the follow up move. I also think you are at the mercy of which stars become available and am not sold on that model. This is a riskier route but I think the payoff could be enormous and it might be a more efficient use of picks.

Also, they may not bite unless they have a couple follow up moves lined up.
 
Take these things with a grain of salt, but here are some models that attempt to assess trade value: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/4/jacob-goldstein-4

There are 4 versions of the model, here is what it would take to get #6 according to these charts:

Goldstein 2017: 6 for 9 + 42
Pelton 2017: 6 for 9 + 34
Pelton 2015: 6 for 9 + 50
Restifo 2016: 6 for 9 + 30

These are EV centric calculations, so not a true trade value.....but yeah I think they underestimate the cost from moving up to 6.....but it is a warning shot to show that the difference in outcome between 6 and 9 is not as big as you may think.

Some relevant recent draft day trades:

2020: Jarrett Culver (#6) FOR Cam Johnson (#11) + Dario Saric
2019: Deandre Hunter (#4) + Jordan Bone ($57) + Solomon Hill FOR Jaxson Hayes (#8) + NAW (#17) + two future second round picks
2018: Luka Doncic (#3) FOR Trae Young (#5) + future top 5 protected first round pick


Honestly, I think #6 for #9+#28+stuff (some seconds?) would not be out of the ordinary. It will depend on how much ORL wants who they can get at #6 versus #9.

To get to #4, it would probably take #9+#16+future first (not sure #28 is good enough).
 
KqWIN said:
Take these things with a grain of salt, but here are some models that attempt to assess trade value: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/4/jacob-goldstein-4

There are 4 versions of the model, here is what it would take to get #6 according to these charts:

Goldstein 2017: 6 for 9 + 42
Pelton 2017: 6 for 9 + 34
Pelton 2015: 6 for 9 + 50
Restifo 2016: 6 for 9 + 30

These are EV centric calculations, so not a true trade value.....but yeah I think they underestimate the cost from moving up to 6.....but it is a warning shot to show that the difference in outcome between 6 and 9 is not as big as you may think.

Some relevant recent draft day trades:

2020: Jarrett Culver (#6) FOR Cam Johnson (#11) + Dario Saric
2019: Deandre Hunter (#4) + Jordan Bone ($57) + Solomon Hill FOR Jaxson Hayes (#8) + NAW (#17) + two future second round picks
2018: Luka Doncic (#3) FOR Trae Young (#5) + future top 5 protected first round pick


Honestly, I think #6 for #9+#28+stuff (some seconds?) would not be out of the ordinary. It will depend on how much ORL wants who they can get at #6 versus #9.

To get to #4, it would probably take #9+#16+future first (not sure #28 is good enough).
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Yeah, the NFL seems to have a bit more widely accepted trade charts. In the NBA the trade value for different trades seems highly variable and dependant on the perceived drop offs at different tiers.

When talking about pure value, independent from the actual prospects at those positions, you would have to pretty much never trade up for a player because by all those models, you would be overpaying massively. For example, 9+16 should probably get you to the 2-3 range, but in reality that's never going to happen. You would need to add a ton more.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think its the right time for a bet like this too... as a player can be ready in a year or two to really help. Then you make the follow up move. I also think you are at the mercy of which stars become available and am not sold on that model. This is a riskier route but I think the payoff could be enormous and it might be a more efficient use of picks.

Also, they may not bite unless they have a couple follow up moves lined up.
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We could involve other teams that could provide the player(s) that are looking for our picks.

This could be just the right situation where a guy has enough upside that he's worth taking that gamble on, but isn't such a no brainer that a team wouldn't ever move him.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
We could involve other teams that could provide the player(s) that are looking for our picks.

This could be just the right situation where a guy has enough upside that he's worth taking that gamble on, but isn't such a no brainer that a team wouldn't ever move him.
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Most teams in that spot are not selling. The Dame pressure may create a great opportunity. Teams have gotten weird about going all in last few years... its weird the pick is for sale with the shadow that Dame contract has over the franchise. I would think the best thing would be to cash in on Dame and pivot around #3, Sharpe, Simmons and whatever the haul is you got for moving Dame.
 
I wonder if Sexton and #9 is enough to get #6 from Orlando. They need backcourt creation and shooting, and Dick should be there at #9. I also think they are ready to pivot and interested in players rather than picks if they were to trade down.

Decent chance Whitmore is there at #6, but Hendricks and other good prospects that I am not sure will be the best fits in Orlando will also be.

I think there is real merit here. Who says no?
 
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NUMBERICA said:
I wonder if Sexton and #9 is enough to get #6 from Orlando. They need backcourt creation and shooting, and Dick should be there at #9. I also think they are ready to pivot and interested in players rather than picks if they were to trade down.

Decent chance Whitmore is there at #6, but Hendricks and others that I am not sure will be the best fits in Orlando will be.

I think there is real merit here. Who says no?
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Why would we do that?
 
NUMBERICA said:
I wonder if Sexton and #9 is enough to get #6 from Orlando. They need backcourt creation and shooting, and Dick should be there at #9. I also think they are ready to pivot and interested in players rather than picks if they were to trade down.

Decent chance Whitmore is there at #6, but Hendricks and others that I am not sure will be the best fits in Orlando will be.

I think there is real merit here. Who says no?
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#11 and Dario Saric (he had just finished up his 3rd season with MIN) got to #6 in the past. Sexton is kinda a similar value to Saric and #9 obviously > #11.

Don't think Orlando has a need for Sexton, however. Cole Anthony a similarish player.
 
KqWIN said:
#11 and Dario Saric (he had just finished up his 3rd season with MIN) got to #6 in the past. Sexton is kinda a similar value to Saric and #9 obviously > #11.

Don't think Orlando has a need for Sexton, however. Cole Anthony a similarish player.
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Sexton should have WAY more value than Saric.
 
If we stay at 9 and Ausar is available and instead we take any of Dick, GG, Black, Wallace, or even Walker; then I would be very disappointed.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Sexton is the most undervalued player we have currently.
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To who? I can see that, though. He was crazy efficient last year, good dude, plays hard. Happy to keep him, but I'm not sure he's a legit starter/closer on a contender and that's what I'm hunting right now. Great 6th man type and paid accordingly, at minimum.

In any event, hard to trade up without giving anything, and Sexton is a real player (and better than Cole Anthony by a healthy margin).
 
NUMBERICA said:
I wonder if Sexton and #9 is enough to get #6 from Orlando. They need backcourt creation and shooting, and Dick should be there at #9. I also think they are ready to pivot and interested in players rather than picks if they were to trade down.

Decent chance Whitmore is there at #6, but Hendricks and other good prospects that I am not sure will be the best fits in Orlando will also be.

I think there is real merit here. Who says no?
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Ochai should have value for them instead of or in addition to Sexton since his best skill is shooting and he is long, young, and not a dice-roll.
 
Jazzfann said:
Thanks. I like batman :) Anyway "experts" say that Scoot would be close 1 pick in another draft and he would also be in the rookie deal in few years. So Utah would have plenty of caproom to make more moves. Also you just dont collect picks, you try to make a winning team. It just depends what you think about Scoot. I think that he has a good potential to be very good player, maybe even all-star in the future. It just that you seldom have chance to get up in draft to get such a potential player. And it is possible to change the deal a bit, because now its very favorable to Portland i think (they get Embiid). If Portland sends on that 3 team deal Nurtic and A.Simons to Philadelphia, then maybe its enough to send 9, 16, 28 2023 draft picks and lakers first and something like 2 firsts to Philadelphia and philadelphia sends embiid to Portland and portland Scoot for Utah. I know it still is somewhere 5 firsts for Scoot, but one is just late first rounder (28?). I think that would be a good deal to Portland and for Utah. Not sure what philadelphia would think about it though (they have to give up Embiid) and start over.
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Unless the rookie is MJ, LBJ, or VW. You don’t trade 7 draft picks. That’s insane
 
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