Jazz trade Fonteccio to Pistons for 2024 2nd

[Tremendous Upside]

That was from Match 7th 2023

LOL. Nice exhumation job.

Let's not pretend like Simone didn't straight up suck most of last season. And I've given him props many times for taking his game to another level lately. But I guess hindsight is 20/20... I have no problem with anything I wrote about him last year. He was an end-of-bench scrub, now he's a productive starter. It happens. Would never count on it though.

Happy for all the people who were able to see that an older guy playing 9mpg and shooting a bad percentage from the perimeter (33%) was really a hidden treasure, though! That's elite armchair GM'ing. You should run the Jazz.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

You're also looking at a pretty small sample size. He might never amount to anything, but your excellent analysis of Simone from last season that Herman just quoted could also be an indication that maybe jumping to conclusions about players isn't always a great idea.

Yeah, let's stick to the facts.

Here are the acts: Procida is a guy who may or may not make it to the League some day. He's certainly no high level prospect and will do nothing for us in the short term. He's a ghost of a player.

Kevin Knox is a bust who has zero on-court value.

Taylor Hendricks has not been able to beat out any of the Jazz rotation players for minutes. He may still not be ready to play.

It's OK to be neutral on any of these guys. All I'm asking is that people won't start huffing copium and telling me these moves won't make us weaker. They do.

 

[HermanG]

LOL. Nice exhumation job.

Let's not pretend like Simone didn't straight up suck most of last season. And I've given him props many times for taking his game to another level lately. But I guess hindsight is 20/20... I have no problem with anything I wrote about him last year. He was an end-of-bench scrub, now he's a productive starter. It happens. Would never count on it though.

Happy for all the people who were able to see that an older guy playing 9mpg and shooting a bad percentage from the perimeter (33%) was really a hidden treasure, though! That's elite armchair GM'ing. You should run the Jazz.

You made FUTURE declarations in most of those statements. You told us what he was going to be, not what he was.

Feel free to not have regrets, but also understand that your ability to see the ceilings for players is not good based on history.

One example from this year. We had this conversation on December 4th:

@Tremendous Upside and @jom2003 if you had to make a call, would you say Keyonte George is going to be a good 3PT shooter in the NBA or not?

You are here painting a negative picture, and I want to see what you truely believe. Its easy to hide behind stats and say "this is what it currently is" (a child can do this), but make a proper analysis and give me your best arguments.

Forget "good" for now – Keyonte's next goal is to become an average shooter. If he's going to play the point, he has to be someone who can't be ignored on the perimeter and who'll be good enough of a finisher that he'll collapse the defense when he drives into the paint. That's just a prerequisite for doing his main job.

However... we simply don't have that many examples of guys who couldn't shoot in college but became dependable in the NBA. Everything is harder in the League. As I said, I'm not giving up on the kid... that would be stupid. But some things are more probable than others.

I can't see any reason to expect that he'll become a GOOD shooter. That may happen, but it's unlikely.

You sure? I mean, analyze his form, mechanics, how he sets his feet, balance, release quickness, average margin of error on misses, shot quality and decission making. You might find plenty of reasons for optimism.

I see you just decided to stick to stats. I kinda expected more from you, as you often analyze stuff beyond the box score.

Keyonte stats up until Dec 4th (so prior to that convo):



Keyonte stats after Dec 4th (after the convo). Notice a major bump in ALL percentages along with larger sample size.

 

[hgb]

It's OK to be neutral on any of these guys.

Aha, so saying "hopefully he can turn into something" is smoking copium, while saying "probably not an NBA player" is neutral?

 

[MTS]

You made FUTURE declarations in most of those statements. You told us what he was going to be, not what he was.

Feel free to not have regrets, but also understand that your ability to see the ceilings for players is not good based on history.

One example from this year. We had this conversation on December 4th:




Keyonte stats up until Dec 4th (so prior to that convo):

View attachment 15960

Keyonte stats after Dec 4th (after the convo). Notice a major bump in ALL percentages along with larger sample size.

View attachment 15959

It should not have been difficult to be optimistic about Keyonte even before this improvement.

It is RARE for rookies to be efficient scorers. Guess who was a more efficient scorer: Rookie Kevin Durant, or (so far) Rookie Keyonte George.

The answer might surprise you!

 

[HermanG]

It should not have been difficult to be optimistic about Keyonte even before this improvement.

It is RARE for rookies to be efficient scorers. Guess who was a more efficient scorer: Rookie Kevin Durant, or (so far) Rookie Keyonte George.

The answer might surprise you!

I would have guessed Durant in a vacuum, but the way you put it its probably George.

Yeah I made my call on Keyonte based on what I see with my eyes, and how that didnt match with the stats. Turns out I'm already kinda redeemed for making that call, but hopefully even more so in the future.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Just look at the deal this way.

Simone will have to get paid in the summer and if his agent valuation of his extension exceeds our own evaluation and there is reason to believe that there will be another team that's willing to give him the money that his party desired, there's nothing wrong with us deciding to cash in now.

Shooters are the most sought after assets in the league. But for this reason the market is extremely inflated which produced some of the worst contracts we've ever seen. Davis Bertans, Joe Harris, Duncan Robinson, etc.

Maybe we dodged a bullet or maybe we just lowballed a great player. Only time will tell.

Again, highly doubt this is about paying him.

Jazz wanted action on draft day and they got it.

 

[MTS]

I would have guessed Durant in a vacuum, but the way you put it its probably George.

Yeah I made my call on Keyonte based on what I see with my eyes, and how that didnt match with the stats. Turns out I'm already kinda redeemed for making that call, but hopefully even more so in the future.

Yeah, it's George.

And if you want to make the comparison with other players who had similar pts per 36 output, the other two of the Suns Big 3 have got you covered there. Rookie Keyonte is a more efficient scorer than Rookie Devin Booker and Rookie Bradley Beal were, while scoring roughly 1 pt more per 36 than Beal and 1 pt less per 36 than rookie Booker.

Bottom line: A rookie being an inefficient scorer is expected, even amongst those who eventually develop into stars.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It should not have been difficult to be optimistic about Keyonte even before this improvement.

It is RARE for rookies to be efficient scorers. Guess who was a more efficient scorer: Rookie Kevin Durant, or (so far) Rookie Keyonte George.

The answer might surprise you!

Adjust for era

 

[fishonjazz]

Lets take a trip back memory lane about what you said about Simone who you are now crying after.

Btw these are collected from 5 month timeframe last season simply by typing "Fontecchio" into the search and defining they are posted by you. I left out quite a lot so this wouldnt be too long:







The zero spacing + pathetic non-shooter comment was my favourite. That was from Match 7th 2023, so not an early season overreaction but after ASG.

That's some great stuff there

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[HermanG]

Again, highly doubt this is about paying him.

Jazz wanted action on draft day and they got it.

I woke up with a gut feeling that once we are able to officially file in the trade, there is another trade lined up where the pick gets rerouted.

Getting 2nd rounders is not DA MO, and there has been too much smoke around us to stop here. I think we either ship it with KO/JC to get the young guy we want (Springer? Grimes?), or then there is another deal where we are the buyer.

 

[MTS]

Adjust for era

Looking up a sample of rookie guards from the past 6 or so years whose efficiency dramatically improved after their rookie seasons:

Rookie De'Aaron Fox was insanely less efficient as a rookie than Keyonte, and scored much less per 36 as well.
Rookie Trae Young's efficiency is identical to rookie Keyonte's (albeit on much higher volume)
Rookie Anthony Edwards' efficiency was a lot worse (similar to Trae, higher volume).
Rookie LaMelo Ball's is identical.
Rookie SGA's efficiency was very meh (better than Keyonte's for sure, on lower volume), but my God has it exploded upwards since then.

None of this is meant to compare Keyonte to these players. More to underscore the point that rookies, even ones that develop into great players, rarely have good efficiency. It's certainly not a reason to be a doomer about their future.