I guess my position is that if we end up bottom 5 its because:
1- We made a lose now trade
2- We had a key injury to Lauri, Walker, Sexton
3- The East beat up on each other and all are close enough to the play in that they don't want to pull the plug.
As-is I would bet we end up 6-8. Hardy will play guys like Bazley instead of Williams if they are truly trashy. While Darius isn't good he isn't bad bad. I think Clarkson is better this year than last.
I think the veil has been lifted. Just as Hardy played Keyonte because "it's time", he will play Cody instead of Bazley because it is already time. Even if he doesn't think it's time, I wouldn't necessarily see Hardy as a guy who can win with a skeleton crew. I think the reasons we "overachieved" was more so a result of having tons of veteran players/depth versus Hardy magic.
Right now, I'd say we'd be a favorite to be bottom 5. "Bad" things can happen to anyone, but can also happen to us. If we're not bottom 5, I'd say we'd have really good fortune with multiple others being unfortunate.