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ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

fishonjazz said:
True.
Like if the jazz were well known to be desperate to be rid of Lauri and was shopping him around to everyone for a low return (like due to salary cap issues etc) then I think Vegas would lower the line because betters would think that it was almost certain that Lauri was gone.



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If that was the case they wouldn't lower the line they would simply pull the line until further clarity is made. That is what happens when there seems to be legit fire to rumors because all Vegas cares about is setting a correct line to collect the vig. The last thing they want is to get lopsided on one side or the other.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
True, but people forget how poorly we started the season last year. The majority of our wins happened during an ok December then a really hot January.

I could see this team having a good month or so and ruining the tank.
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It depends on what you mean by ruin the tank. If you mean ensuring a top 3 lotto position, yes. But if that was so important than we should be more open to trading Lauri. If you mean winning more than 29 games….I really don’t think so. Like I said, we won 31 games last year and that was while trying to win for 2/3 of the season with a better roster. We were 26-30 before we quit. I think the last third of the season will be similar, but the first two thirds will not be. Feels like we have at least a couple more losses than last year.

We can keep mentioning all the ways we actually win more than expected….they’re possible. But if we were to simulate this season 1000 times, I don’t think we’d be over 28 more times than not.

I don’t think Hardy is an unknown when it comes to tanking. We were the worst team in the entire league when we flipped the switch last season. He’s one of the few coaches that will openly admit that he isn’t trying to win games. He is proven when it comes to tanking.
 
Y'all we have two years in a row of the Jazz overachieving before the ASB and not tanking all the way.

They are probably a better team this year if you think Lauri/Sexton are legitimately talented and improving. And even moreso if you believe in the talents of Walker,Keyonte, and Hendricks getting better.
 
MT Steve said:
Hypothetical here, but if the messaging was different and if it seemed like there was a decent chance to people, including those that set the betting lines, that Lauri was going to be traded, do you think the line would have been set differently?
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I already posted about this but I will do so again.

If the jazz were aggressively shopping Lauri and Lauri was demanding a trade and Lauri couldn't get way more money by staying then yes, I think that would be reflected.


My stance has not been that betters didn't account for probable trades. I think they do. I know I would.

My stance has been that betters are betting on the jazz roster as is (with Lauri) because that is almost certain to be the roster for the upcoming season. Therefore the line of 28.5 doesn't have an unlikely trade of Lauri baked in. And I believe that after the jazz extend him we will see almost no movement in the 28.5 number.

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Also Clarkson and Collins are on multiple year deals. They aren't just vets you can hang up and disrespect.

A trade has to happen if they desire to be a bottom 5 team
 
fishonjazz said:
I already posted about this but I will do so again.

If the jazz were aggressively shopping Lauri and Lauri was demanding a trade and Lauri couldn't get way more money by staying then yes, I think that would be reflected.


My stance has not been that betters didn't account for probable trades. I think they do. I know I would.

My stance has been that betters are betting on the jazz roster as is (with Lauri) because that is almost certain to be the roster for the upcoming season. Therefore the line of 28.5 doesn't have an unlikely trade of Lauri baked in. And I believe that after the jazz extend him we will see almost no movement in the 28.5 number.

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Gotcha - thanks for clarifying.
 
MT Steve said:
Hypothetical here, but if the messaging was different and if it seemed like there was a decent chance to people, including those that set the betting lines, that Lauri was going to be traded, do you think the line would have been set differently?
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Just give up. Sip and Fish aren't capable of thinking beyond what's immediately in front of them.
 
Jazz4ever said:
28 wins seem super close. Rookies are generally terribly defensively and can fuel a tank pretty hard.
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Agreed. I wouldn't touch that line

If Lauri were traded then I would take the under but of course if Lauri is traded then the line probably drops to like 24 or 25 due to so many betters taking the under 28.5 bet after Lauri was traded.

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Yeah I don't see a comparison to the previous two seasons. Those two seasons had rosters that were flooded with vets. On one hand, people are saying JC x2 are going to ruin the tank, but on the other hand we give no credit to having these vets in previous seasons. Last season, the goal at the beginning of the year was to make the playoffs and we had acquired talent to do so. The end of the season is going to be no different, we're going to be blatantly tanking once again. The difference is that we're not going to be hovering around .500 for the first two thirds of the season.

Anything can happen, of course, but I would definitely bet on this team being at least two games worse.
 
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fishonjazz said:
Nah. We all agree that the betters are what set the line. I just think that the betters are smart and like to win. I think the betters believe that Lauri sticks with the jazz this season just like all the experts think as well and they are betting accordingly and I think that we will see the line remain mostly the same as it currently is when Lauri extends with the jazz and isn't eligible for trade.

I don't know why you think that take is outlandish. What is unreasonable about it?

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Yea, not falling for the bait. I'm good. Whatever you say you are welcome to believe in. Multiple people here have already spelled it out for y'all clear enough
 
Btw I'm not claiming to be some expert on all of this and calling anyone stupid for disagreeing with me. (I will leave that to cy like usual) I very well could be wrong.
My opinion is based off my own logic and common sense.

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