Looking ahead to 2025-2026

[HermanG]

This article is extremely relevant to this thread. I'm just not sure how much of this is based on intel from the front office or just her opinions:

State of the Utah Jazz’s rebuild: Just how long is this going to take?

How long until the Jazz start winning games? What happens next year?

www.deseret.com

The article was interesting but it sets a picture that we are hell bent on tanking in 2026 which does not fit the flexibility narrative that the FO has pushed a lot over the years and also executed in how they manage the cap and veterans (keeping the best ones around).

I doubt the FO is fully locked in on what they will do in 2026, and if we get Flagg its hard for me to believe they would sabotage the team because a combination of Flagg, Kessler and Markkanen is too good to tank. That would be one of the best frontcourts in the league (not only future outlook, but also currently) and there are no guarantees you find better players to pair with Flagg than Lauri and Walker. You gotta at least let it play out for a bit to see what you got.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The article was interesting but it sets a picture that we are hell bent on tanking in 2026 which does not fit the flexibility narrative that the FO has pushed a lot over the years and also executed in how they manage the cap and veterans (keeping the best ones around).

I doubt the FO is fully locked in on what they will do in 2026, and if we get Flagg its hard for me to believe they would sabotage the team because a combination of Flagg, Kessler and Markkanen is too good to tank. That would be one of the best frontcourts in the league (not only future outlook, but also currently) and there are no guarantees you find better players to pair with Flagg than Lauri and Walker. You gotta at least let it play out for a bit to see what you got.

I thought it was interesting that she wrote we are potentially more likely to trade Lauri if we get Flagg since Flagg + Lauri will make us too good for the 2026 draft.

With AJ going to BYU and now this kind of reporting, it almost feels like Ainge and Smith are laser focused on that draft.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The idea that we will be tanking next year, almost no matter what, seems very consistent at this point. We are hearing it from everyone in the know.

A) The Jazz's pick is only top-8 protected.
B) The Jazz don't have 1A or 1B talent on the roster.
C) If small-market teams want to be competitive, then getting franchise-player talent under long-term team control is virtually a must. Denver is who they are because they drafted Jokic, Murray and MPJ, while having enough assets left over to trade for Aaron Gordon. It gave them a 5-year window of contention. That has to be the Jazz's blueprint.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

So a couple of things have changed since I started this thread:

- We didn't end up moving Collins or Sexton, which means we have more legitimate NBA players than expected going in to next season.
- Flagg has played so well for so long that I'm becoming me confident that he will be a positive contributor sooner than later.

But Mostly...

- I'm super sick of tanking and just don't want to cheer for losses or watch bad basketball anymore.

I am currently intrigued by the idea of getting Flagg and then going out and getting the best available two way guard we can trade for.

Houston bottomed out for 4 straight years in order to draft Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard. Even though they hit on a couple other picks, like Sengun and Eason, I struggle to see how that team makes it to the top of the West. Maybe they can eventually be a #3 or #2 seed. It's really hard to get all the way to the top.

Orlando tanked for multiple years to come away with Jonathan Issac, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Anthony Black. Now they're several games below .500 and not going anywhere soon.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

FWIW, I think John Collins is potentially part of the Jazz's future. He's not a perfect player, but it's not going to be all that easy to replace what he brings.

 

[KqWIN]

The idea that we will be tanking next year, almost no matter what, seems very consistent at this point. We are hearing it from everyone in the know.

I just don't see how another path is viable....and this is not a "tanking always works" kind of argument. It's just that the other direction of trying to build forward from here is extremely bleak. The only thing that makes moving forward a legitimate path is if we land Flagg, but if we hit on that 14% chance I still think there's a great argument to be had that we should trade Lauri+other vets anyways.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I'm not sure if I'm more sick of tanking right now because we have been doing it all season or because we have done it at this time of the year for 3 seasons in a row, or a combination of both.

I just want to be happy when our guys are healthy and we are winning games again. It feels like I'm reaching my limit.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

One thing I'm growing more confident in as Walker continues to get rested for no reason is that we promised him huge money to make him not complain.

Like, he was guaranteed to get between 5-125 and 5-150 in his extension next year, but I'm increasingly feeling like 5-150 is his floor.

I could very easily see 5/200.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I just don't see how another path is viable....and this is not a "tanking always works" kind of argument. It's just that the other direction of trying to build forward from here is extremely bleak. The only thing that makes moving forward a legitimate path is if we land Flagg, but if we hit on that 14% chance I still think there's a great argument to be had that we should trade Lauri+other vets anyways.

Tanking with Lauri was what I wanted, and so I can't complain, but I think it might feel different right now if we were actually this bad vs artificially this bad.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I'm not sure if I'm more sick of tanking right now because we have been doing it all season or because we have done it at this time of the year for 3 seasons in a row, or a combination of both.

I just want to be happy when our guys are healthy and we are winning games again. It feels like I'm reaching my limit.

I generally echo this statement, but I guess I want to just tuck in the evergreeen critique that the way we tanked the previous two seasons was really dumb:
1) The Jazz should have gutted the roster before the ‘22-‘23 season even started (I recall some reporting that the Jazz could’ve gotten the same pick or better from the Lakers but the Jazz held out for more [only to end up gifting the Timberwolves a swap of the WOAT for the GOAT of culture/chemistry]).
2) The Jazz probably should have just played it straight last year and likely conveyed the pick to OKC to unlock any optionality next year when the protections are lower, the draft is good, and the Jazz own swap rights to two other teams. They probably could still have done the trades to get #29 and #32 and made the play-in because they were also sitting players and other chicanery.

But yeah. TLDR; I feel you.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I generally echo this statement, but I guess I want to just tuck in the evergreeen critique that the way we tanked the previous two seasons was really dumb:
1) The Jazz should have gutted the roster before the ‘22-‘23 season even started (I recall some reporting that the Jazz could’ve gotten the same pick or better from the Lakers but the Jazz held out for more [only to end up gifting the Timberwolves a swap of the WOAT for the GOAT of culture/chemistry]).
2) The Jazz probably should have just played it straight last year and likely conveyed the pick to OKC to unlock any optionality next year when the protections are lower, the draft is good, and the Jazz own swap rights to two other teams.

But yeah. TLDR; I feel you.

Most of the smart posters on here were saying we needed to dump Mike/etc to be as bad as possible for the best chance at the Wemby sweepstakes. That isn't even hindsight, that was just Ainge being stubborn.

With Cody looking as bad as he currently does it certainly feels like we might have been better off conveying that pick. I think that point is debatable at this point, but mostly with hindsight.

Your first point is pretty relevant to this thread and the poll though. The majority (53%) of people, including me, voted in the poll of this thread to see how things go to start the year and make adjustments at the deadline. That "see how it goes" strategy is what we did in the 22-23 season that ended up with the 9th pick. If we don't pick a lane going in to 25-26 we could seriously be in danger of losing out on AJ/Peterson/Boozer/Etc and not have any pick in 2026, while still not being anywhere close to a contending team.

 

[KqWIN]

Tanking with Lauri was what I wanted, and so I can't complain, but I think it might feel different right now if we were actually this bad vs artificially this bad.

I think tank with Lauri has gone about as well as you can expect. Having said that, we probably lost significant value in a potential Lauri trade by not dealing him earlier. With perfect hindsight, I think definitely deal Lauri before the season and tank as usual....not for better lotto position but just so we don't have Lauri drop major value. I think tank with Lauri was viable if we saw more out of our existing young guys, but we haven't gotten a real breakout season other than Walker returning to form.