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If the Jazz are better than expected it's because...

Pick the most likely reason for the Jazz to crush their win total expectation.

  • Lauri has his best season in a Jazz Uniform

    Votes: 3 5.4%

  • Our Center rotation of Kessler/Nurkic is very good

    Votes: 1 1.8%

  • Will Hardy is coach of the year

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Ace and or WCJ are much better than typical rookies

    Votes: 24 42.9%

  • Keyonte and or Collier have a glow up

    Votes: 9 16.1%

  • Brice and or Cody have a glow up

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Hendricks and or Flip have a glow up

    Votes: 10 17.9%

  • Niang and or Anderson are the ultimate glue guys

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Front Office Reasons

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other (post comment)

    Votes: 5 8.9%
  • Total voters
    56
With the loss of our vets we pretty much have no idea how it will work out which could be a good thing. Maybe this new young crew will gel and add up to more than the sum of its parts.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Outsider Theory:

The Jazz brought in a scrub big man rim protector who at one point masqueraded as a 3pt shooter to teach Kessler that wanting to shoot 3's is bad for career if you suck at them.
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My own conspiracy theory is that Walker is definitely on the way out, Hardy wants to play 5-out, and after Summer League they’re all high on KF.

Not sure I actually believe it, but I could see it.
 
Shad said:
My question is how can we be better than other teams? The west is absolutely loaded and we've had the worst defense in league history 2 years in a row. I will say, this team will be more fun to watch than the previous 2 years since we actually have young talent to watch
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Load management

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KqWIN said:
Well, I’d say we’re going to win more than the O/U suggests, but my answer to this is different. I’m a strong believer that it’s depth that wins in the regular season. So if we win more than expected (or a lot more than O/U) it’s because we have lots of small improvements across the roster vs one guy propelling us there. Even if Key, for example, had a breakout season we could still suck badly if no one else improves and/or we give a lot of minutes to negative players. But having a roster with a lot of real players on it can win some games. There are a lot of guys just on the edge of being solid rotations guys imo. Key, Brice, Flip etc. You add those guys onto to the existing vets and you might have a decent headcount for real NBA players. To be a very bad team like we were last year you need lots of minutes from the worst guys in the league.
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Good answer

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Get a starter level NBA lead guard to limit turnovers, Hardy improves as a defensive coach and the whole team buys in.
 
It looks like Ace is running away with this, which seems very unlikely to me that he will have that type of impact. Most rookies are not helpful to winning in the NBA.

On the other hand, if I'm remembering correctly Ace had one of the best on/off impacts of any draft pick. I've kind of ignored it as the effect of playing on a horrible team without any bigs, but maybe there is more to it???

For those that watched Rutgers any thoughts on why they played so much better with Ace on vs off the court? Is it possible that having a guy like Ace that was happy to take tough shots took pressure off everyone else and allowed them to play better? Is it possible that while he was an inconsistent defender, his length was more impactful than you would think? Is it really plausible that he could have a positive impact on winning games in year one?
 
SoberasHotRod said:
It looks like Ace is running away with this, which seems very unlikely to me that he will have that type of impact. Most rookies are not helpful to winning in the NBA.

On the other hand, if I'm remembering correctly Ace had one of the best on/off impacts of any draft pick. I've kind of ignored it as the effect of playing on a horrible team without any bigs, but maybe there is more to it???

For those that watched Rutgers any thoughts on why they played so much better with Ace on vs off the court? Is it possible that having a guy like Ace that was happy to take tough shots took pressure off everyone else and allowed them to play better? Is it possible that while he was an inconsistent defender, his length was more impactful than you would think? Is it really plausible that he could have a positive impact on winning games in year one?
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I could be misremembering but I feel like kqwin said that Ace had a negative effect on his team.

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If Hardy does his job then he develops the young guys. Since most answers are about 1 or 2 guys developing... (a job I put squarely on the shoulders of the coaches) then if Hardy does his job well, 6 - 8 guys on the list get better and we look pretty good by the end of the year.

I am shocked Hardy only got 2 votes considering the list.
 
Improved defense. Young guys step it up and Marko returns to All-star form. Two of these three will show significant improvement on the Jazz.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Just throwing this thought/question out there:

- What is the probability that Keyonte is our leader in ppg this year?
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This is a really, really interesting question. He's the player that is most unreadable in camp this year to me. Everyone says he had a big summer - hard to tell how much of that was Dallas and how much of that was actual on-court growth. Definitely what I'm most looking forward to seeing tomorrow, Ace aside.
 
Flc said:
This is a really, really interesting question. He's the player that is most unreadable in camp this year to me. Everyone says he had a big summer - hard to tell how much of that was Dallas and how much of that was actual on-court growth. Definitely what I'm most looking forward to seeing tomorrow, Ace aside.
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Our FGA/100Possesions last year:

- Clarkson - 24.1
- Sexton - 23.4
- Lauri - 22.4
- Keyonte - 20.6
- Collins - 20.5

There are going to be a lot of shots to get distributed around. I'm guessing Keyonte's FGAs go up.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Just throwing this thought/question out there:

- What is the probability that Keyonte is our leader in ppg this year?
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I'd say 10-15%, more if you count scenarios where Lauri is traded. While I don't think Lauri will be as bad as last year, we're still setting him up for failure. He's a great player, but one that needs to be setup and is dependent on good infrastructure around him. His teammates will benefit from playing with him, not so much the other way around. I think Key will get lots of opportunity this year. There aren't many guards or guys who play with the ball in their hands.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Lauri is the obvious and expected answer, but I wouldn't have thought there was any chance that John Collins was our leading scorer last year.

I don't think the probability that Keyonte leads us in PPG is high, but I don't think it's 0.
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Collins wasn't the leading scorer last year ..

Him and Lauri averaged same PPG, but Lauri played more games, so was the leading scorer
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Just throwing this thought/question out there:

- What is the probability that Keyonte is our leader in ppg this year?
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I think he finishes 2nd to Lauri.
I think key will average about 20/21 and Lauri will average about 24.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Collins wasn't the leading scorer last year ..

Him and Lauri averaged same PPG, but Lauri played more games, so was the leading scorer
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You are correct. Technically Lauri averaged 18.97 pts/game and John averaged 18.95.

The point doesn't change. Lauri averaged 8 more points per game than Collins in 23/24. Nobody expected them to average practically the same points per game last year, yet it happened. It's not super likely that Keyonte averages more points than Lauri, but it's not 0.
 
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