What's new
By:

Jaren Jackson Jr. traded to the Jazz

SoberasHotRod said:
I woke up with a bit of buyers remorse. I'm just not a huge JJJ fan. The worse part is I can't even get really excited about how he fits basketball wise for 9 months. It's like buying a super expensive Christmas present for your wife in the spring.
Click to expand...
I felt this way yesterday. The biggest problem is his salary and inflexibility it will create with the current cap structure. A high salary for a big that can't rebound and has poor foul disipline (like Ace but he's not a rookie). Dude has 5 fouls most games and sits a lot. And he is super inconsistent. His game is worth the picks and players traded, but his salary offsets that value as it will lock up the teams flexibility. If Kessler and Key both get paid what they project to, there will be no flexibility.

If we lose out on the 26 pick and/or Kessler because of it, it will be a devastating blow after we have suffered through all this losing to take a shortcut. This draft class has a lot of good talent available.

How many more picks/players would be needed to have swung for Giannis instead? Because he has the drive and talent and is worth every penny of his salary.

You don’t escape mediocrity by skipping the grind. You escape it by finishing it. Trading for JJJ isn’t a shortcut out of the wilderness. It’s a detour that drops you right back into it, because you won't have the salary to pickup other needed talent. You’ll win just enough to stay stuck, maybe with a playoff series win or two, and have mediocre draft pics. So unless there is a string of luck in the draft, in 4-5 years they’ll be right here again, wondering why the rebuild never actually rebuilt.

I hope I'm wrong.
 
At this point it's time to see what kind of a coach Hardy actually is. He has some tools to work with now. If we're moving toward winning this year bring Harkless up and lets see if we can develop a defensive scheme and move this thing forward. If we're still trying to keep the pick then just do some crazy stuff with rotations and injury management.
 
hgb said:
That was true until the trade (maybe the trade isn't finalized and they're looking to see if they can loop in a third team?). Now it's MEM with the most favorable, us with #2 and PHO with #3.
Click to expand...
I thought I heard at the end of the game last night that they trade was announced finalized right at the start of the game
 
SoberasHotRod said:
For the record I do still think that 2031 Pheonix pick is very good. I know Phoenix is playing well this year, but they still don't have very many ways that they can really improve their team, and I don't think playing harder than everyone else is a sustainable way to win in the NBA. It also stings a little since we traded 3 firsts to get that one. I 100% understand the inability to keep all of our picks and we had to give up something good to get JJJ, but that one stings a little.
Click to expand...
I think them not bottoming out just yet and keeping Booker made the pick look better because they weren’t reloading on youth obtained in a trade, which increases the likelihood that they just kind of treadmill with vets before it peters out into flaccid trash at just the right time. Booker is already ~30 by the way.

It’s a good pick.
 
Last edited:
HermanG said:
Losing our pick would suck, but its a 20-30% gamble to get a great player at best (even #1 overall pick has lower than 50% hit rate).

However we are set up to make a splash with or without the pick. Its just that with the pick there is a small chance we become an absolute powerhouse with 5 starters who all could be all-stars in their own rights.
Click to expand...
Where does your "lower than 50%" come from? Based on data since 1989, the probability of a #1 pick becoming an All-Star (selected to an All-Star Game) is around 65%. And many believe the upcoming draft has at least three #1 picks, which is why tanking teams this year try extra hard to improve their odds.

Edit: And then we also have to add in those players we have in every draft who surprise us and become All-Stars (and sometimes MVPs) from lower picks.
 
Last edited:
The silver lining is despite many suggested us already converting most of the assets from Minny/CLE trade, we still got the most valuable draft capital left which are the 2028 pick swap with CLE and most favorable first from MIN/CLE. Both teams are projected to be very mid in these 2 seasons. For CLE especially if they fail to keep Donovan. So is MIN if they go all in to get Giannis and that deal ends up blowing up in their face.
 
underdog said:
Where does your "lower than 50%" come from? Based on data since 1989, the probability of a #1 pick becoming an All-Star (selected to an All-Star Game) is around 65%. And many believe the upcoming draft has at least three #1 picks, which is why tanking teams this year try extra hard to improve their odds.
Click to expand...
Yes and that 65% includes a lot of one time appearances from guys who were questionnable picks ot begin with and players who ended up suffering injuries. That lowers the actual hit rate.

Take 2005 to 2025 picks for instance. That stretch includes 14 all-stars from #1 overall picks but among them are Paolo, Zion, Ben Simmons, Andrew Wiggins, Derrick Rose and Andrew Bogut (zero All-Stars but I count All-NBA as well). Zion and Rose were great for a hot second but ruined by injuries, and others dont really qualify as the "saviors of your franchise" types.

I am a huge believer of Darryn Peterson, but I'm not so sold on AJ and Boozer being #1 worthy. Like sure in 2024 or some other trash draft there may have been 4-6 guys from this draft going #1... but
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top