$1.49, good call.
Stock Picks
- Thread starter Gyp Rosetti
- Start date
$1.49, good call.
Any ideas on Sea World?
Stock is in the ****ter today but the earnings were not that bad. A whopping $1.13 less revenue per attendee ($62.67 to $61.54) drops it 30% on top of the 20% it was already down over 6 months? The dividend is already up to 4.3% and climbing, and they're spitting off enough cash to buy back 14% of today's market value. They're also backed by Jay Petschek and Steven Major, and I have a hard time thinking that hedge fund isn't going to do anything but double down on their thesis here .
I might buy this one on a whim. The company and the hedge fund will put a bottom in this and love the value they're buying at.
Stock is in the ****ter today but the earnings were not that bad. A whopping $1.13 less revenue per attendee ($62.67 to $61.54) drops it 30% on top of the 20% it was already down over 6 months? The dividend is already up to 4.3% and climbing, and they're spitting off enough cash to buy back 14% of today's market value. They're also backed by Jay Petschek and Steven Major, and I have a hard time thinking that hedge fund isn't going to do anything but double down on their thesis here .
I might buy this one on a whim. The company and the hedge fund will put a bottom in this and love the value they're buying at.
Ducky, you have any experience catching falling knifes like this? I jumped in at $18.22, $.05 off the bottom. Over 41 million shares traded today, and there's only 90mm outstanding. Blackrock owns over 29mm of them, and it's 98% institutional investors. This is a short pile on if there ever was one and I'm expecting a huge and rapid squeeze. Holding shorts at this point is plain greedy and asking to get taken out behind the woodshed. I wouldn't be surprised to see Blackstone step back in -- they took it to market at $27 and had 53mm shares two quarters ago. At $18 they may see the opportunity to jump right back in, in a big way.
Anyway, I have no clue when to sell. It could go up 15% tomorrow, or 50% in 3 months. Advice please.
Anyway, I have no clue when to sell. It could go up 15% tomorrow, or 50% in 3 months. Advice please.
Oh Ducky, where are ya?
I should troll Pearl with his dumb *** TBT short call too, but he's not likely going to read. I'll be here when he does to rub my long @ 4% call in his face. It's here somewhere.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I tend to buy beat up stocks every once in awhile. I'd take the flip if you get some run tomorrow. I haven't seen too many that have taken a big earnings hit like that and then recouped all of that in a short time. But then again, I don't necessarily watch them for too long after I try to trade them. Especially in something that's actually tangible like theme parks. The ones that ones that seem to get upward bursts out of nowhere after taking hit are like the tech companies that nobody cares are making money or not. What I do usually is just wait for that first 7:30-8:00 crazy half hour of every trading day to be over, then throw in a stop loss and just see what happens for the day on those types. But it definitely complicates things if it's down 5 or 10% in that first hour, which does happen from time to time.
What I really like for short term flip buys rather than the negative falling knifes though are stocks that are still positive for the day on a news item but dropped a good amount from their open price. More than 10 % drop from the open + volume over a mill + news item means I'm usually buying at the end of the day. For example, ICPT had some drug data yesterday that was positive but it opened at 340 and then closed at $275, which was still up for 16 or 17% on the day. Buy in at the close yesterday, you've got 12% today. That works pretty well consistently.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
Though like any good Ultra short ETF ULL crapped out and had to reserve split a few times, no? At least once. They all share that same fate. What would ULL be today relative to the structure when it was $30?
Thanks, and looks like you called it right. This might take much longer to form a base than I initially thought. I don't have much experience with these situations, but I've seen a helluva lot of these news drive crashes lead to huge upside swings (BP is the best example of a no-brainer).
I was referring to shorting treasuries, not the actual vehicle. We all know they go to zero.
It might finally be time to set up that t short, ducky.
This thing is going to over react and over analyze what the Fed will do and we just might see drastic predictions of negative short term deposit ratse from the wonks coming out of the woodworks to declare their 5 year victory. That'll be you're queue to place your bet.
The economy is strong and the Fed isn't straying from course, barring external impact (the Europes can suck my ***).
This thing is going to over react and over analyze what the Fed will do and we just might see drastic predictions of negative short term deposit ratse from the wonks coming out of the woodworks to declare their 5 year victory. That'll be you're queue to place your bet.
The economy is strong and the Fed isn't straying from course, barring external impact (the Europes can suck my ***).
I doubt I'll ever short anything in my lifetime and I don't give suggestions very often. I've given one to my family 6 years ago and one on here that never set up.
Where's ThePearl gone? I need advice on OAK. My last calc had them about $500mm under their 2.5 billion-ish book value when you add in the earned but not accounted for returns on invested funds (they're roughly 7 year duration bonds htm so price volatility shouldn't be an issue in the end). It's best of breed with an incredible track record, and still relatively small at $90 billion with plenty of room to grow and apparently some momentum.
I don't know the space and can only guess the low price is estimating future payouts that will likely shrink in the short to mid term???
I don't know the space and can only guess the low price is estimating future payouts that will likely shrink in the short to mid term???
Oil is going the way of the dinosaur (boo ya); solar energy, Dick. Solar.
Dave has much as I value your "opinion" this is an adult's thread. Please go troll one of the other fecal related ones.
Good call.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
What lens are you operating out of? What do you think the reason oil is dropping is? Oversupply? Secret agreements intended to stick it to Russia/Iran/Venezuela? A world economy that is even worse than most people believe?
He's right.
Macro, sir. The reasoning is all over the news. An oversupply by the OPEC cartel and no cut of production for the foreseeable future. Simple market economics. Whether this has motives in respect to RIV, I don't care.
My initial inquiry here was in respect to making a speculative move not geo-political posturing.
Duck Rodgers
Well-Known Member
Right, but what you think is happening influences your timing. You don't want to be stuck in ETFs longer than you have to be. Oil could up 15% in a year or something, and you'll still lose 5% if it ever dips a significant amount in that timeframe before it rose again because ETFs don't climb out of holes well. Just go look at the crude oil chart and compare it to the oil ETFs between a relatively stable period like Jan 2012 - Jan 2014. You're out 10% just for playing the ETF game. If you were in 6 months ago, you would never get your money back even if oil went to $200. They don't just track well.
USO - the supposed best 1 share to 1 barrell tracker around - Jan 2012, $39; Jan 2014 , $33. 15% drop.
Crude oil ~ 2% drop Jan 2012-Jan 2014
Anyway, I do think you should be buying and I would start now with some upper crust oil company stocks and just keep buying periodically if they go down.
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Jerk gets a prius and all he can spew is alternative energy sources.