Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Handlogten's Heros said:

I think if he was making like a million a year and was around 20-30 in the draft projections that he could go back.

Click to expand...

It's tough because even as a late first round pick he'd be making double that on his rookie scale and also have the second year guaranteed. I think NIL can serve as some security for first round guys if they want to try risk it and improve their draft stock, but I probably would probably still advise against any player skipping the draft if they are a first rounder.

KqWIN said:

It's tough because even as a late first round pick he'd be making double that on his rookie scale and also have the second year guaranteed. I think NIL can serve as some security for first round guys if they want to try risk it and improve their draft stock, but I probably would probably still advise against any player skipping the draft if they are a first rounder.

Click to expand...

I think it's just at the end of the first round there is always a chance you go to the second round. If you get selected in the second round there is always a chance you get signed to a two way deal, which for a lot of these guys is worse than NIL money.

KqWIN said:

It's tough because even as a late first round pick he'd be making double that on his rookie scale and also have the second year guaranteed. I think NIL can serve as some security for first round guys if they want to try risk it and improve their draft stock, but I probably would probably still advise against any player skipping the draft if they are a first rounder.

Click to expand...

And just looking at draft order... Brooklyn has three picks in the 20s so might be a few places for bigger "projects" in the 20s. Wiz also have a pick. They probably have a comfortable floor.

Handlogten's Heros said:

Jase, VJ, Philon?

Kon just doesn’t have the activity stats IDK on him. He’s been shooting the piss out of it. Who knows?

Click to expand...

Jase - For sure. As much as we are anti short king, there sure is a lot of them killing it in the NBA.

VJ - I think he has the mold of more of a role player, but I still think most would consider him a traditional "high potential" prospect because of his alien athleticism. If his handle improves, it could sky rocket his level of play.

Philon - On paper he's actually pretty similar to guys we loved here in previous years like Black and Castle. His shot looks totally busted, but depending on the person that could be considered a good or bad thing. I like him...one difference between he and the others is that he is very skinny and doesn't have an NBA body yet. But he is an A+ little things guy IMO and could be very good if he can put on weight and shoot it.

Kon - Kind of interesting that he has the opposite case of Philon, but I've been trying to squint to see if I can imagine him as a star player. His shooting might be good enough to be a super effective player like Powell or Bane....but those guys are kind of the cream of the crop for their archetype and there's probably a reason why there isn't more of them. I like Kon's skill level and play inside the arc....but the lack of peripheral stats is a red flag on paper. Maybe Flagg eats into his production? Or maybe playing with Flagg makes him look better than he is.

SoberasHotRod said:

I think it's just at the end of the first round there is always a chance you go to the second round. If you get selected in the second round there is always a chance you get signed to a two way deal, which for a lot of these guys is worse than NIL money.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I think that if there's true risk of falling into the second round NIL is a good option. But like I said earlier, I think Demin and his camp will probably have a good idea where he will get drafted and maybe even try to place him in a specific spot. As @Handlogten's Heros pointed out, there's a lot of late round picks going to developmental teams this year so he probably has a comfortable floor.

KqWIN said:

Yeah, I think that if there's true risk of falling into the second round NIL is a good option. But like I said earlier, I think Demin and his camp will probably have a good idea where he will get drafted and maybe even try to place him in a specific spot. As @Handlogten's Heros pointed out, there's a lot of late round picks going to developmental teams this year so he probably has a comfortable floor.

Click to expand...

Yeah, and I just looked at the last 3 years of 2nd round picks on Spotrac, and almost all of the picks in the 30-40 range end up getting contracts that are likely higher than NIL money. So if you are getting first round intel it would be very unlikely you would be in a bad financial position to drop out of the draft.

SoberasHotRod said:

Yeah, and I just looked at the last 3 years of 2nd round picks on Spotrac, and almost all of the picks in the 30-40 range end up getting contracts that are likely higher than NIL money. So if you are getting first round intel it would be very unlikely you would be in a bad financial position to drop out of the draft.

NBA Draft

A real-time, sortable list of NBA draft including total value, guaranteed money, and complete salary breakdowns.

www.spotrac.com

Click to expand...

I'm thinking more the risk is not a one year thing but more being too raw and having a team give up on you too early. So if the NIL gets you $500k+ for a couple years and your draft stock doesn't tank that maybe you get a better/longer runway overall.

Egor could likely go a lot of ways I guess. Who knows?

Handlogten's Heros said:

I'm thinking more the risk is not a one year thing but more being too raw and having a team give up on you too early. So if the NIL gets you $500k+ for a couple years and your draft stock doesn't tank that maybe you get a better/longer runway overall.

Egor could likely go a lot of ways I guess. Who knows?

Click to expand...

If you’re in that boat, I’d say the risk of injury is higher than just going now and working to make the best of the situation. If you’re good enough to make it in the NBA, you shouldn’t put it off.

Coach Ellis said:

If you’re in that boat, I’d say the risk of injury is higher than just going now and working to make the best of the situation. If you’re good enough to make it in the NBA, you shouldn’t put it off.

Click to expand...

Probably right. If you are in the 20s you likely get a minimum of two years to see if you suck or not. So a minimum of 6-7M on top of whatever you made in NIL as a freshmen... even if you hang around Europe or get two ways for 5-7 years you've likely gotten to $10M+ in earnings. Show enough to finish out that rookie deal and you are 15M.

Handlogten's Heros said:

When he jumps he looks like he is 6-7 because he's a special athlete. When he is just walking around the court or dribbling he looks 6-4.

Click to expand...

Sounds like best of both worlds. When spring through the air towards the basket, he finishes like a 6-7 guard, and when weaving in and out of traffic, he’s like a speedy 64 load of the ground I’ll take that lol

When has returning to school helped someone who was already projected a lottery/first-round pick?

Elizah Huge said:

When has returning to school helped someone who was already projected a lottery/first-round pick?

Click to expand...

It's helped a few, like Benedict Mathurin and Franz Wagner, who went lottery after their 2nd year of school when they otherwise would have been later FRPs.

There have been some for whom the decision to return or delay the draft a year has backfired. That Czech guy Roko Prkacin got hurt and fell off the map when he could have been a FRP. Overall, returning to school probably hurt Filipowski's draft stock, though there were other factors at play for him slipping to the 2nd round. You see how nearly everyone has forgotten about that Spanish forward Baba Miller at this point, when he was once considered a late 1st - mid 2nd-round pick.

Elizah Huge said:

When has returning to school helped someone who was already projected a lottery/first-round pick?

Click to expand...

I think that players rarely stay in school (especially prior to nil which is relatively new) so it would be a small sample size of a player even staying in the first place.

Not sure if staying would improve Demin position or not but I do think he would be on a better team next season and playing with AJ would increase the people who watch him play. Those things might help.
On the other hand, more eyeballs might be a bad thing if he has a similar season next year to this one.

Elizah Huge said:

When has returning to school helped someone who was already projected a lottery/first-round pick?

Click to expand...

Zach Edey was never lotto pick before his senior year. Maybe late first. Only example that jumped out at me.

Handlogten's Heros said:

Zach Edey was never lotto pick before his senior year. Maybe late first. Only example that jumped out at me.

Click to expand...

Maybe Keegan Murray and Haliburton? Just not sure where they stood when going back to school. Not a lot of great examples tho.

We'll see on CMB. I believe he would have been a late first last year and could be a lottery pick this year.

Elizah Huge said:

When has returning to school helped someone who was already projected a lottery/first-round pick?

Click to expand...

Maybe Filipowski? I really dont remember where he was mocked before he declared he was returning to school.

Ferguson_Mellochill said:

It's helped a few, like Benedict Mathurin and Franz Wagner, who went lottery after their 2nd year of school when they otherwise would have been later FRPs.

There have been some for whom the decision to return or delay the draft a year has backfired. That Czech guy Roko Prkacin got hurt and fell off the map when he could have been a FRP. Overall, returning to school probably hurt Filipowski's draft stock, though there were other factors at play for him slipping to the 2nd round. You see how nearly everyone has forgotten about that Spanish forward Baba Miller at this point, when he was once considered a late 1st - mid 2nd-round pick.

Click to expand...

I tried to look up old mock drafts/big boards prior to him declaring returning to school and couldnt find any. He was set to have double hip surgery in the off-season, so I doubt he would have been a first round pick if teams knew he was doing that procedure.

K, I actually found some old mocks, and Filipowski was mostly in the late first round of most mocks in January/February, so I would say it was a wash for him, but him having surgery in the off-season would have knocked him down once teams reviewed his medicals.

Saint Cy of JFC said:

K, I actually found some old mocks, and Filipowski was mostly in the late first round of most mocks in January/February, so I would say it was a wash for him, but him having surgery in the off-season would have knocked him down once teams reviewed his medicals.

Click to expand...

I think Flip is one you throw out because he absolutely should have been in the 20s in the draft at worst and the weirdest background story that didn't matter at all hurt his stock. I think he would have been early second late first in 2023. Had "buzz" in the teens for both 23 and 24 drafts.

Overall I'd say there is more downside than upside if you are a first rounder or borderline first round guy. NIL makes it more interesting though.