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No Extension for Walker Kessler?

It’s funny bc the people who are mad at the Jazz for not signing think he would have signed for $25M a year. The people not mad think the Jazz offered $25M and he didn’t accept. We all wanted the same thing but are yelling at either party for not accepting.

We don’t actually know which side would go to $25M a year.
 
JazzFever said:
The nice part of RFA in our situation is that I really don't think anyone is going to tie up enough money on Kessler to keep us from matching when that # is so ridiculously high it would be a poison pill to whomever offered it. If he shows to be that good, we'll match regardless and then they're out a player they could have realistically gotten on the market.
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Are you saying NBA GMs dont make idiotic moves?

Those idiots existing is the logic Danny used for pricing his trade chips. Now his son is betting on them not existing by waiting on the Kessler deal.
 
ok, let's say he leaves the team. who's next? is Kyle starting C material? i wouldn't say so. Nurk is good but old. we have some forwards that can sub in sometimes, and oscar tries hard. Lauri is tall enough, but really isn't a C. I kind of wished that they had drafted someone. i guess there's Mo, but he's g league right now. who have i missed? do we really only have one starting quality C under 30 years old?
 
cctrackstar said:
ok, let's say he leaves the team. who's next? is Kyle starting C material? i wouldn't say so. Nurk is good but old. we have some forwards that can sub in sometimes, and oscar tries hard. Lauri is tall enough, but really isn't a C. I kind of wished that they had drafted someone. i guess there's Mo, but he's g league right now. who have i missed? do we really only have one starting quality C under 30 years old?
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I imagine the team is looking for a starting center of the future still. Filipowski is too small.

We're years away from even trying to win so the team does have time to find a Kessler replacement if they don't like him.
 
KqWIN said:
It’s funny bc the people who are mad at the Jazz for not signing think he would have signed for $25M a year. The people not mad think the Jazz offered $25M and he didn’t accept. We all wanted the same thing but are yelling at either party for not accepting.

We don’t actually know which side would go to $25M a year.
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Nah, I think people are mad at the jazz for not signing him. The number doesn't matter so much.
Go to 30 million a year. Just get it done.
 
HermanG said:
Are you saying NBA GMs dont make idiotic moves?

Those idiots existing is the logic Danny used for pricing his trade chips. Now his son is betting on them not existing by waiting on the Kessler deal.
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Possibly, but the new CBA seems to really have breathed some paranoia into front offices re:getting aproned. I think there are too many examples of deals not getting done or players being overlooked due to money concerns, league wide. Jazz have miles of cap space and are still scared of spending too much.
 
fishonjazz said:
Nah, I think people are mad at the jazz for not signing him. The number doesn't matter so much.
Go to 30 million a year. Just get it done.
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I've seen people on both sides say the number should be $25M....but to your point, the numbers are so close it probably should have gotten done. Many ways to give Kessler more money and still make it team favorable.

Reality is both sides were likely to be FAR apart if they gave up on negotiations so quickly.
 
KqWIN said:
It’s funny bc the people who are mad at the Jazz for not signing think he would have signed for $25M a year. The people not mad think the Jazz offered $25M and he didn’t accept. We all wanted the same thing but are yelling at either party for not accepting.

We don’t actually know which side would go to $25M a year.
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The real issue is we didn't negotiate an actual deal. So we don't know what Walker's camp would do if offered 25M per year.

If they had actually negotiated and Walker was dead set on 30M a year... Jazz are justified in walking away. The Jazz sent in a lowball offer in part because they aren't sure about Walker. The left the table citing cap space. I hope they have a contingency plan here. Walker would still work well with the Lakers cap space plans if we moved him in season. I would guess it would be only one first and it would hurt the first you already own.

I suppose Walker's camp could have been like... we need a meeting and threw out there that they'd take 25M, but if the Jazz had started at 15M and said they could get to 20M... then they likely settle in somewhere between 20-25 because you have now anchored yourself to a lower number.

I do think those that aren't big Walker fans do think that he was asking for too much. I don't know that we ever got to a real ask.
 
One thing I have seen out there is the thought that Walker won't get an offer sheet. That may be true... but guys that get to RFA can get paid based on the threat of a big offer sheet. Some of the worst contracts in the league got all the way to FA (RFA or UFA). Some of the best contracts in the league are a result of extensions and shifting risk.

Ayton/PG/Quickley/Jerami Grant... all got to FA

Deni/Trey Murphy/Steph (back in the day)/Jarrett Allen/Zubac etc. were extensions.

Even some extensions that look a little rough like Suggs/Claxton/Vassell because of making the salary declining or flat... are either trade neutral or assets... even if they were pricey at the time.

I think we missed an opportunity here.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
One thing I have seen out there is the thought that Walker won't get an offer sheet. That may be true... but guys that get to RFA can get paid based on the threat of a big offer sheet. Some of the worst contracts in the league got all the way to FA (RFA or UFA). Some of the best contracts in the league are a result of extensions and shifting risk.

Ayton/PG/Quickley/Jerami Grant... all got to FA

Deni/Trey Murphy/Steph (back in the day)/Jarrett Allen/Zubac etc. were extensions.

Even some extensions that look a little rough like Suggs/Claxton/Vassell because of making the salary declining or flat... are either trade neutral or assets... even if they were pricey at the time.

I think we missed an opportunity here.
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I agree in principle- we have been burned before on letting this happen. I’m assuming though that Austin, having moved front offices recently, has a pretty decent grasp of the what/how teams are approaching the new CBA and judges the risk to be low. If he has misjudged that, it will be the first big black mark on his ledger as GM.
 
JazzFever said:
I agree in principle- we have been burned before on letting this happen. I’m assuming though that Austin, having moved front offices recently, has a pretty decent grasp of the what/how teams are approaching the new CBA and judges the risk to be low. If he has misjudged that, it will be the first big black mark on his ledger as GM.
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I think the big risk is if the Lebron/Lakers tiff creates some chaos on that team, their appetite for risk re:Kessler may expand quite a bit.
 
JazzFever said:
I agree in principle- we have been burned before on letting this happen. I’m assuming though that Austin, having moved front offices recently, has a pretty decent grasp of the what/how teams are approaching the new CBA and judges the risk to be low. If he has misjudged that, it will be the first big black mark on his ledger as GM.
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This is fair. I do think the risk to reward is kinda wonky. Fair or not I'm using the 25M number to judge them. Do they think they can get him at $20M a year? Who do they think they are landing with that cap space?

If they move him it will make sense. I just think we opened ourselves up to something bad happening here.
 
I guess the main factor here is the Jazz being unsure about Kessler's impact going forward.
They've oddly decided to go full gas on LM, and I think it probably has a role in being cautious about Walker.
Both are postseason unproven, both tend to suffer a bit when good Ds go another level and tight things up, both got some issues onone side of the floor ...
 
Hoop Collective was commenting on extensions on today's podcast.

Mentioned guys like Duren/Eason/Ivey/Williams, but no mention of Walker. Someone said Duren/Detroit were far apart on a deal. Supposedly Eason was offered 100+ million, but it may have been contingent on his health/not fully guaranteed so he didn't sign.

Basically said teams have been emboldened by the recent free agencies to not overpay for their own RFAs and everyone is scared of the apron.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Hoop Collective was commenting on extensions on today's podcast.

Mentioned guys like Duren/Eason/Ivey/Williams, but no mention of Walker. Someone said Duren/Detroit were far apart on a deal. Supposedly Eason was offered 100+ million, but it may have been contingent on his health/not fully guaranteed so he didn't sign.

Basically said teams have been emboldened by the recent free agencies to not overpay for their own RFAs and everyone is scared of the apron.
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I wonder how much of Eason's offer was guaranteed, but I could see him making all of that in FA with some of the bad teams that will have space. Ivey/Eason/Williams make some sense to wait because of healthy. Duren has inconsistent effort and I just get the feeling they aren't sold on him as a core piece. Mathurin makes sense to wait too as he has a huge prove it opportunity.

My beef all along has been we didn't try hard enough to see if we could really find a reasonable deal. I would have really tried to keep those doors open for a last minute potential settling that looks amazing. It wouldn't shock me if he had settled for something like what Sharpe took plus maybe some incentives to sweeten the deal.

Like I thought we were going to be tough negotiators. Lowballing and walking away isn't being tough or smart. Its lazy.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If they move him it will make sense. I just think we opened ourselves up to something bad happening here.
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I think one of two things is happening:

1) Walker will be traded at the deadline. He doesn't fit how Will wants to play with a five-out offense and swarming, switching defenses. They're playing things light and mum to keep trade value as high as it can be. This would explain Walker's frustration and that, in the next sentence, he expressed a desire to be a part of what the Jazz are building.

2) More exciting but less probable: there's someone/something on the Jazz's radar for this summer and the Ainges are trying to pull off the most legendary accomplishment for an NBA GM: a two-window team. What did Ainge do after drafting Tatum and Brown? He brought in Hayward and Kyrie. If we have Ace and AJ/Booz/Peterson, all of our young talent, Lauri and a maxxed out All-Star or All-NBA player... that's a two window team. By not extending Kessler, they could bring in the max salary and then sign Kessler to a new contract into the apron. Doesn't seem to be a great free agent class, so if this is what pans out it may be via trade.

(Personally, I think it's number 1, but wouldn't be surprised with number 2. Ainge works this **** out well in advance - the Celtic baby onesies weren't an accident; he spent 3 years with KG as a target for Boston.)
 
Flc said:
I think one of two things is happening:

1) Walker will be traded at the deadline. He doesn't fit how Will wants to play with a five-out offense and swarming, switching defenses. They're playing things light and mum to keep trade value as high as it can be. This would explain Walker's frustration and that, in the next sentence, he expressed a desire to be a part of what the Jazz are building.

2) More exciting but less probable: there's someone/something on the Jazz's radar for this summer and the Ainges are trying to pull off the most legendary accomplishment for an NBA GM: a two-window team. What did Ainge do after drafting Tatum and Brown? He brought in Hayward and Kyrie. If we have Ace and AJ/Booz/Peterson, all of our young talent, Lauri and a maxxed out All-Star or All-NBA player... that's a two window team. By not extending Kessler, they could bring in the max salary and then sign Kessler to a new contract into the apron. Doesn't seem to be a great free agent class, so if this is what pans out it may be via trade.

(Personally, I think it's number 1, but wouldn't be surprised with number 2. Ainge works this **** out well in advance - the Celtic baby onesies weren't an accident; he spent 3 years with KG as a target for Boston.)
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I think its more #1 but less like they are for sure going to trade him and more like... they just aren't sure about him.

I could buy #2 if there were FAs that made sense. Right now its like Trae Young and Austin Reaves at the top... not exactly super team type stuff.

My guess with how this plays out is Kessler is moved to the Lakers for a first and maybe a swap. OR we ended up painting ourselves into a corner and pay him 32M+ per year when we could have gotten him around 25-26Mish. Not the end of the world but still an unforced error.
 
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