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2013 Free Agency - Guards Galore

GVC

GVC

Well-Known Member
As many of you know, the Jazz are in great position to make a splash in free agency in 2013. Aside from having no non-rookie contracts that extend beyond next season, 2013/14 is the first season where the new, strict luxury tax rules come into effect. The Jazz, even with 2 first round picks this year, and one second round pick in each of the next two seasons (assuming Minnesota gets the pick the Jazz owe them in 2013), could have close to $40mm in cap space for the 2013 offseason (without considering cap holds and minimum roster requirements).

Here is the breakdown of the salary the Jazz will have committed for the 2013/14, assuming they end up with the 11th and 12th picks this coming draft, along with two minimum salary second round picks (one first year, one second year):

Favors: $6 008 196
Kanter: $4 505 280
Hayward: $3 452 183
Burks: $2 202 000
2012 11th overall pick: $1 851 800
2012 12th overall pick: $1 759 300
2012 2nd round pick (minimum contract): $788 872
2013 2nd round pick (minimum contract): $490 180

Total: $21 057 811

This year's cap is set at $58 044 000 this season. Assuming it's at the exact same level for 2013/14, the Jazz would have $36 986 189 of cap space to play with. Even subtracting the $490 180 x4 roster charge for only having 8 players under contract, the Jazz would have enough cap space to offer 2 MAX contracts to players with 6 or fewer years of NBA experience (with roughly $6mm to spare).

The extra good news: The 2013 free agent class is guard heavy. Obviously some of these players will be extended before they hit free agency, but I would expect more than a handful to slip through, especially considering the new luxury tax provisions. Here's a sample of the guards who will be free agents in 2013 (R - Restricted, U - Unrestricted, E - Early Termination Option...I've left off players who have team or player options that will likely be picked up, with perhaps a couple exceptions):

Point Guards

Chris Paul (U)
Steph Curry (R)
Darren Collison (R)
Jrue Holliday (R)
Ty Lawson (R)
Brandon Jennings (R)
Jeff Teague (R)
Roddy Beaubois (R)

Shooting Guards

Monta Ellis (E)
Andre Iguodala (E)
Tyreke Evans (R)
Kevin Martin (U)
James Harden (R)
Manu Ginobili (U)
Anthony Morrow (U)
Gerald Henderson (R)

Blake Griffin, Serge Ibaka and Josh Smith also hit the market in 2013.

I'd love to see the Jazz take a run at Harden and Jeff Teague if they haven't solved their perimeter problems in the next year+. Thoughts?
 
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thanks for this thread. Harden and Holliday stand out to me, but the latter especially could be hard to pry away. Perhaps Harden is gone because OKC won't have the cap space?
 
NAOS said:
thanks for this thread. Harden and Holliday stand out to me, but the latter especially could be hard to pry away. Perhaps Harden is gone because OKC won't have the cap space?
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They'll probably have to kick Kendrick Perkins to the curb if they want to re-sign both James Harden and Serge Ibaka. If Harden isn't extended, I hope the Jazz FO will be willing to throw a max offer sheet his way. With the new CBA, and a $58.044mm cap number for 2013/14, a max offer sheet would have a first year salary of $14.5mm, with only 4.5% raises in years 2 through 4. The contract would be 4 years for a total of $61.962mm.
 
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Is the rookie salary structure fixed for the length of the deal?

OKC looks to only have 54-56 mil committed in 13-14 currently. They can afford 11-12 million for Harden, though it looks like they may not be able to afford both Harden and Ibaka. An interesting choice they'll have to make.

Philadelphia will have enough to keep Holiday.

It'll be interesting to see if anybody outside of Deron and Dwight even sniffs 8 digits this next off season given the more restrictive rules going into effect the next year.
 
Darkwing Duck said:
Is the rookie salary structure fixed for the length of the deal?
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I think both the rookie and minimum salary scales are fixed, yes. I used shamsports.com for existing contracts and realgm for rookie and minimimum salary/roster charge figures.
 
GVC said:
I think both the rookie and minimum salary scales are fixed, yes. I used shamsports.com for existing contracts and realgm for rookie and minimimum salary/roster charge figures.
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Rookie contracts are more valuable, then. Salary cap goes up next few years, while rookies get paid the same.
 
GVC said:
They'll probably have to kick Kendrick Perkins to the curb if they want to re-sign both James Harden and Serge Ibaka.
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I can definitely see this happening, Ibaka > Perkins. I doubt they let Harden walk unless they realize their roster isn't built to win it all by this point.
 
cowhide said:
I like Harden but he isn't worth $11 million. I think he is more of an 7-9 million player.
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STFU and listen to GVC, seriously. This guy is no 6th man. Playing him there is strategy by OKC.


GVC, I don't think $58mm will be the number in 13-14 but could be wrong. From what I've read, 4% raises to the BRI calc. should be in. Do you think they aren't for some reason?

Also, meeting the minimum wage is as easy is calling Ostertag up for a max one year deal. I think at minimum Jazz could take a terrible expiring along with a first and a young gamble to meet the minimum. They would still have the cap room you're looking at. That's scary room with The Four (HT Numberica), and why I think a guy like Howard should take a damn hard look.

Can you imagine two max guys with The Four and two top picks? This is why I wanted the Jazz to blow this bitch up after it was shown this was a go nowhere squad.



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One more thing: Reports are the Jazz now get about $15mm revenue sharing under the new CBA compared to $5mm under the old. That's enough to buy a championship if they build it right.





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franklin said:
GVC, I don't think $58mm will be the number in 13-14 but could be wrong. From what I've read, 4% raises to the BRI calc. should be in. Do you think they aren't for some reason?

Also, meeting the minimum wage is as easy is calling Ostertag up for a max one year deal. I think at minimum Jazz could take a terrible expiring along with a first and a young gamble to meet the minimum. They would still have the cap room you're looking at. That's scary room with The Four (HT Numberica), and why I think a guy like Howard should take a damn hard look.
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1. I stuck with this year's cap figure to be as conservative as possible. If the cap goes up, the Jazz only have more cap space to work with.

2. The minimum I was talking about was the roster size minimum (there's a charge equal to the minimum salary for a 1st year player charged to a team's cap for every player fewer than 12 they have under contract). The Jazz can renounce cap holds of their own free agents when they're ready to sign a free agent. Again, I'm being conservative here, and using the highest possible number for the Jazz salary (assuming the Jazz renounce all their own free agents).
 
cowhide said:
I like Harden but he isn't worth $11 million. I think he is more of an 7-9 million player.
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Yikes. 17 4 and 4 on great percentages. He may be better as a second option, but even then should be getting more than 7-9 per.
 
It's no secret that the Jazz, financially, are looking to the the summer of '13 to make a splash. I doubt the Jazz offer multiyear contracts to their current expirings (Miles and Howard). I would think the only way the Jazz take on a contract that's goes past next year is if it's a deal in their favor, for instance taking on a bad contract with Okur's TPE to get a high draft pick, prospect, etc. Teams also have to make quicker decisions on RFAs. It's down to two or three days instead of the seven it used to me, and the fourteen before that. Jazz can ruin a lot of teams financial flexibility by offering contracts to players like Curry and Harden that their teams would be unhappy to match.

The problem is, the Jazz are lacking one pretty substantial thing, a star player. Doesn't matter how flexible and how great a team is financially, until it gets a star player, the team won't be very good. The positive is that the Jazz have more chances to get a star player. A financially crippled team has less of a chance to land a star player than one that has bunches of cap room.
 
Darkwing Duck said:
It's no secret that the Jazz, financially, are looking to the the summer of '13 to make a splash. I doubt the Jazz offer multiyear contracts to their current expirings (Miles and Howard). I would think the only way the Jazz take on a contract that's goes past next year is if it's a deal in their favor, for instance taking on a bad contract with Okur's TPE to get a high draft pick, prospect, etc. Teams also have to make quicker decisions on RFAs. It's down to two or three days instead of the seven it used to me, and the fourteen before that. Jazz can ruin a lot of teams financial flexibility by offering contracts to players like Curry and Harden that their teams would be unhappy to match.

The problem is, the Jazz are lacking one pretty substantial thing, a star player. Doesn't matter how flexible and how great a team is financially, until it gets a star player, the team won't be very good. The positive is that the Jazz have more chances to get a star player. A financially crippled team has less of a chance to land a star player than one that has bunches of cap room.
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Before starting this thread, I considered posting the 2013 specifics in less detail in the Rondo thread. While I'm no fan of acquiring Rondo, if the FO/coaches think he can be the Jazz starting PG longterm, there'd still be plenty of cap space to sign a max free agent in 2013 with Rondo on board. With the new LT coming into effect for the 2013/14 season, it's entirely possible that the Jazz can land a pretty good player for expiring contracts next season. I would still prefer for Al to be dealt ASAP, but holding onto him might be a better play, as there could be some pretty desperate teams at next season's trade deadline. There's very little incentive to move Harris early, with no one needing minutes behind him. If anyone is willing to give the Jazz logterm pieces, half decent players who expire in 2013 or picks for CJ, he should be jettisoned. I'd be very surprised if he's back next season.
 
I am surprised that I am not hearing more people that want Curry. To me he is the best prospect from that list hands down. I get made fun of for liking Harden as much as I do, but if it was either Curry or Harden it is not even a choice, Curry every time.
 
orangello said:
I am surprised that I am not hearing more people that want Curry. To me he is the best prospect from that list hands down. I get made fun of for liking Harden as much as I do, but if it was either Curry or Harden it is not even a choice, Curry every time.
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I would expect Ellis to exercise his ETO and become a free agent. At that point, the W's should have plenty of financial flexibility to match any offer for Curry. Same goes for Holliday in Philly. With Harden, though, OKC is going to have to make some tough choices. I imagine they'll still probably match any offer for Harden and most offers for Ibaka, and then start shedding their role players for pennies on the dollar, but you never know. If they decide against matching a max offer for Harden (which would likely be for less than 16 per over 4 years), I hope it's the Jazz making the offer.
 
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Only a max offer can pry Harden away, and even then OKC might match. I would like to see some east team make him that offer though, otherwise the road to get out of the west will be near impossible for the next 5+ years.
 
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