Can someone summarize the argument going on. A lot of text that I don’t feel like reading.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
- Thread starter Ferguson_Mellochill
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1. No, I'm saying he is reliant on his mid-range jumper in college and that does not bode well for his NBA prospects.
2. Modern NBA shot distribution is not 1/3rd mid-range shots.
Kqwin thinks a mediocre current prospect should be considered on the same level as Kobe Bufkin. I do not.
1. His game, and especially his NBA is not reliant on his scoring It's reliant on his defense and athleticism. If you had questioned his 3 ball, that would be valid. If you question his mid range game, that is only valid if you actually think that will be part of his NBA game.
2. This is a cold hard fact. Amari Bailey's proportion of shots that are 2 pointers but not at the rim is 35.8%. That number in the NBA this season is 36.6%. This is not a debatable point it is fact.
That's including stars. Bailey is not a star. He's going to be a role player at best. Also paint non-rim shots are not midrange shots.
THT was a loose cannon, and it looks like the Jazz have him more or less under control. Thing is, if you look at GG's HS tape and Team USA tape, he was a team player and a pretty consistent defender.
Some HS highlights on Gradey Dick. I'm having a hard time building conviction on Anthony Black and Keyonte George. Maybe Cason Wallace works, but I'm starting to think that Gradey Dick going to the Jazz is a real possibility in the 9 - 11 range. If Hendricks is off the board, it's likely coming down to Dick, Wallace, Black and George. Then there's the fact that he looks like Danny Ainge's nephew.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-OPZU7QV8I
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-OPZU7QV8I
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The main thing with GG is just convincing him he has to be more than an iso scorer to get on the court. I just dont get the sense that he has a great basketball feel outside of scoring.
zags422
Active Member
I still think Julian Strawther is intriquing for our 3rd pick as well, pending on what's available and if we went G and PF/C with our first 2 picks. My biggest question for JS is his basketball IQ and his defense. With that said, I'm curious if his defense may be underrated. Gonzaga for most of the year most of JS minutes come alongside nolan hickman and drew timme, both who play only average defense and are actual liabilities for defensive breakdowns on either 1:1 or on screen actions. JS has a good vertical, and has developed a very craft mid-range floater with the additional capability to take it to the rim. With that said, his #1 attribute is his range. And, his range, he is top 1-2 in the draft for 3PT capability. Is he tenacious enough a player to play in the NBA? if he is...dude is an absolute steal right now for someone in the 2nd round. JMO.
I think he has some lazy habits. He's used to being the most physically dominant guy on the court who doesn't have to bother playing hard all the time. Then SC let him get away with continuing to play like that. If there's something to be concerned about with GG, I think it's that he has certain moments where he doesn't show much touch at the rim. He has a few weird misses that don't look right.
LOL. It is a league average, and like I said it's a cold hard fact. I'm comparing apples to apples. Paint non-rim shots are included in the number you cited for Bailey. I even mentioned this earlier that a lot of these "mid range" shots for Bailey are floaters. You can easily tell by watching him play. You cannot count these floaters in the argument that he is a mid range scorer and then go on to say they are not actually mid range shots.
Bailey is a high usage player college, which is why he's attempting more mid range shots. I don't expect that to be a part of his game in the NBA. You're absolutely right that Amari Bailey is likely going to be a role player, which is why this mid range stuff was silly to begin with. This will not be part of his NBA game, you said it was. You "projected" he is a mid range scorer. If you see him through that lens, I see why you don't think he's good. I fundamentally disagree with the belief that his role in the NBA will be as a mid range scorer, as you stated verbatim. His role in the NBA is obviously as a defender and athlete first and a lower usage connector on offense.
How is he defensively? 43% from three on over 5 attempts a game is definitely intriguing.
Since you are obviously a Zags fan, how would you compare Kispert to Strawther as prospects?
kcgar
Well-Known Member
zags422
Active Member
He seems to occasionally lose focus through a game and will play passive. Missing box outs or missing a switch. But for the most part he has average feet for a guy his size. Has difficulty staying with faster shorter guards but can make up for some of that with his height and reach. Some of this he may mature some and improve with further coaching. With our hedge game with Kessler, he already plays this in college. Of note, in tight games, he has shown up repetitively through the year. I think he has legit nailed 3 game winning threes just this season the zags would have otherwise lost. He has usually 1 boneheaded play per game that leaves you frustrated but when he is dialed in…he can really shoot. If the zags win another game I think he will start to get more chatter
zags422
Active Member
Not as strong taking it to the basket as kispert, which he doesn’t get to show much in current team. Fwiw, the wizards are the worst. Glad rui got out of there. Their coaching approach is so Anti-team ball drives me nuts. Kispert so much better than what he is even showing thus far with the wizards. Garbage franchise.
Strawther has a slightly faster release than kispert and will shoot with more confidence with a player playing off in front of him or ducking under a screen. Their percentages are similar. Strawther is a much better rebounder but lacks some of the physical strength kispert has. Kispert is probably a better passer as well and better IQ, but I think he plays too passive. Strawther plays with much more confidence which you want out of a 3pt sniper. Would take kispert over him but kispert went top 15 I believe and I think Strawther is more the 23-35 range
Bawse Dawg
Well-Known Member
I can just totally picture Wallace in a Jazz uniform running the offense. Would love to get him.
Someone made a bigger Mike Conley comparison. I have no idea if their games are even similar. But I do love that comp.
Someone made a bigger Mike Conley comparison. I have no idea if their games are even similar. But I do love that comp.
Sure. He IS extremely young, though. And if there’s a place he could pickup the missing parts it is probably here if the INSANE jumps this year for Lauri, THT, and Dunn have made (not to mention Walker and Ochai).
Jarace Walker is a high-level glue guy, a triple threat from 20-feet in and a versatile defensive presence that would complement what the Jazz have with Lauri and Walker. Shame the Jazz aren't going to be able to get him without moving up.