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2025 Free Agency Thread

That's just the reality of small guards who don't defend. Would be a shame if our FO had an affinity for them......................
I think it may have gone a bit far though. It may be good long term to reset the market as our FO does lust after them.
 
My (very bad, don't hold it against me!) DARKO projection with made up minute totals has this current roster at 25.45 wins. Collier and Keyonte expected to drive the tank once again, but big improvements from then could turn this into a 30+ win team.

s/o Nurkic the +/- analytics god

View attachment 18993

So the big disclaimer here is that DARKO is not a season projection. It's an APM projection if they played a game today. What this is saying is that if the players play at the listed level and the listed minutes over the course of a season, they will win about 25 games. DARKO is not made for prediction a season performance, and the minutes I just literally made up.

Having said that....I see many more areas for DARKO to be underrating our players than overrating them. Lauri could easily improve, Collins and Kessler are already on the upswing, and every negative young player here would be expected to be better. The one area where where players may be overrated here is me defaulting to -2 for the rookies. Rookies are often much more negative than that. Even good prospects are often the true tank commanders in this league.
 
I think it may have gone a bit far though. It may be good long term to reset the market as our FO does lust after them.

It's really just the contract. If those guys were FA's, they'd probably sign for like $10M a year like Jerome. Getting almost double the true market value isn't palpable atm. If a small, non defending guard is going to exceed the MLE in the future he's probably an all star level player.
 
So the big disclaimer here is that DARKO is not a season projection. It's an APM projection if they played a game today. What this is saying is that if the players play at the listed level and the listed minutes over the course of a season, they will win about 25 games. DARKO is not made for prediction a season performance, and the minutes I just literally made up.

Having said that....I see many more areas for DARKO to be underrating our players than overrating them. Lauri could easily improve, Collins and Kessler are already on the upswing, and every negative young player here would be expected to be better. The one area where where players may be overrated here is me defaulting to -2 for the rookies. Rookies are often much more negative than that. Even good prospects are often the true tank commanders in this league.

It wouldn't surprise me if Ace is an extremely negative player next year and he is going to get a ton of minutes. WCJ could be closer to even though.

I do hope that Keyonte makes an efficiency jump though and gets to even this year.

I don't know, I think we are pretty safely a very bad team next year.
 
My (very bad, don't hold it against me!) DARKO projection with made up minute totals has this current roster at 25.45 wins. Collier and Keyonte expected to drive the tank once again, but big improvements from then could turn this into a 30+ win team.

s/o Nurkic the +/- analytics god

View attachment 18993
30 win would be disastrous. Given our "luck" in the lottery, we will just be handing the 9th pick over to OKC as they go for 3 peat.
 
It wouldn't surprise me if Ace is an extremely negative player next year and he is going to get a ton of minutes. WCJ could be closer to even though.

I do hope that Keyonte makes an efficiency jump though and gets to even this year.

I don't know, I think we are pretty safely a very bad team next year.

It just gets hard to be very bad once you have a lot of rotation players. Some of our young players are turning into legit players instead of tank commanders. We’re adding some young guys, and while I’d expect Ace to be super negative and play a lot of minutes WCJ and TH are probably going to be decent, above replacement level guys.
 
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