Coin....

[Stifle Tower]

So, in laymans terms, why is there a better chance of getting 6th than 4th if your end up 4th? Isn't that odd?

Disclaimer, I didn't graduate highschool. Seriously.

No disclaimer needed. I agree it may seem odd on the surface, but to stay at #4 means no teams from 5-14 jump ahead - i.e. they all remain exactly where they were. If any of those teams gets a top-3 pick, the Jazz drop down. Also, if the Jazz get a top-3 pick they move up.

So think of it as:
A. the combined odds for any of the #4-#14 teams moving up >>> than the odds for all those teams remaining exactly where they are.

 

[DutchJazzer]

The Jazz won the first flip, moving into the fourth position in the NBA draft lottery and capturing a 10.4 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The C’s are slotted fifth with a 10.3 percent chance. Utah can pick no lower than seventh while the Celtics could select as low as eighth.

While the two teams have a nearly identical chance at a top-three pick — 33.7 percent for the Jazz and 33.4 for the Celtics — Utah’s luck has more significant ramifications should neither team win a shot at (most likely) Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins or Joel Embiid. The Jazz have a 9.9 percent shot at the fourth selection, 37.3 percent shot at fifth, 17.6 shot at sixth and 1.4 percent shot at seventh.


Meanwhile, the C’s cannot get the fourth pick and have a 23.7 percent shot at fifth, 34.2 percent shot at sixth, 8.2 percent shot at seventh and 0.3 percent shot at eighth, according to Celtics assistant GM Mike Zarren.

In other words, the Jazz now have a 98.4 percent chance at a top-six pick while the C’s have an 8.5 percent chance at seven or eight. Similarly, Utah gets a 43.6 percent shot at a top-four pick while the C’s are stuck at 33.4 percent.




simplified version

 

[GVC]

if i remember statistics, 'AND' sequences (condition1 AND condition2) get treated with multiplication yes, but as GVC pointed out, we have about a ~33.69% chance at the top 3, not a 23.7%.

The probability of both ending up in the top 3 isn't calculated like that, as they aren't independent events.

The probability that both end up in the top 3 is about 7.9%.

You can subtract that number from the probability that either team is in the top 3 to get the probability that that team is in the top 3 and the other isn't.

Summing those three numbers gives you the probability that at least one is in the top 3 (This is just the sum of the probability of each being in the top 3 minus the 7.9% probability of both being in the top 3). Subtract that number from 100, and you have the probability that neither is in the top 3.

 

[DutchJazzer]

the probability that both boston and lakers land in top 2.

is 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


FACT

 

[homeytennis]

It's ont he twitter feed on ESPN! YES YE SYES YES YLSDnmgamsdg;er!!!!!!! HIJOLE VATOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! jajajajajajajajaja

Also the GSTankers pick is #23. So right now Utah is 4 & 23.

Wow the 23rd pick ought to bring us someone with the talents of Morris Almond.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

if i remember statistics, 'AND' sequences (condition1 AND condition2) get treated with multiplication yes, but as GVC pointed out, we have about a ~33.69% chance at the top 3, not a 23.7%.

I think you just treat them the same. The conditions are just the inverse---e.g., condition 1 = Boston has 23% chance of top 3, and the inverse condition is that Boston has a 77% chance of not getting in the top 3. That makes sense to me intuitively.

 

[VINYLONE]

**** yes. I'm drunk at Union Station and I'm ****ing happy.


This electronic post has been constructed, arranged and transmitted via an Apple branded communication device using the Tapatalk application.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The probability of both ending up in the top 3 isn't calculated like that, as they aren't independent events.

The probability that both end up in the top 3 is about 7.9%.

You can subtract that number from the probability that either team is in the top 3 to get the probability that that team is in the top 3 and the other isn't.

Summing those three numbers gives you the probability that at least one is in the top 3 (This is just the sum of the probability of each being in the top 3 minus the 7.9% probability of both being in the top 3). Subtract that number from 100, and you have the probability that neither is in the top 3.

I think the idea here is that if Utah does get into the top 3, the chance of Boston also getting in the top 3 goes down because Utah has claimed one of the 3 positions and only 2 remain....and it matters which slot 1 - 3 that Utah gets. I think the 7.9% probability is too high, no?

 

[Matthew Thomas Castleton]

Well, technically, Boston actually had a better overall record than when did anyway, going by NBA Playoff Tiebreakers. Neither one of us were a division winner. We split the season series at 1-1. We aren't in the same division, so the next tie-breaker would be conference record. Boston had a much better conference record than we did, so, they technically had a better season than we did. It is just Karmic justice that we won the tie-breaker over them. The stars aligned. Hopefully they will align again on May 20th and we will get into the top 2 picks, guaranteeing us either Wiggins or Parker.

Sent from the JazzFanz app

 

[Zulu]

Thought I'd post this here.

@Mitch_Lawrence: #Utah Jazz ready to pull the plug on Tyrone Corbin and go for a new coach, according to #Jazz exec.

Can I pull the plug please!!!!

 

[orangello]

biggest win of the season.

Only things bigger than winning the coin flip is:

1. Winning the #1
2. Jumping to #2
3. Settling on #3
4. Corbin being told he will not receive an extension but it has to happen by 4/19/14.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

 

[Stoked]

Wow the 23rd pick ought to bring us someone with the talents of Morris Almond.

Don't worry. be happy. Every little thing is gonna be alright.