Collin Sexton SZN

[Handlogten's Heros]

Eh...I don't know about no chance. I think if he plays at the level he's been at he's probably going to be worth it. And it get backs to what I was saying. If you're overpaying someone by $5M a year...is that so much that you don't give him the deal? Have to be honest and think about other options....maybe that option is to overpay a different guy. I just don't think it's enough to say, "this guy will be overpaid and that's why we shouldn't sign him". It's not quite that simple. Most of the options for using our cap space involve overpaying for someone one way or another.

I tell you what, I think FVV's next contract will be better than Clarkson's next contract. FVV will get paid more, but he is a much better player and you're paying for years 29-31/32 instead of 31-33/4.

I get that... I just think there is a chance he is worth $5M more/less than what he signs for the first two years of that deal and then goes full Kemba Walker and is done. He's tiny and they way those guys play puts some hard miles on dudes.

I guess a better way to put it for me is I would rather overpay for a guy now that would project to be in his prime in 2 years versus one that will almost surely be on the downslide and maybe on a steep decline. Age is particularly brutal on small pgs.

With JC I think age is one factor here... I'd be willing to bet age 33/34 JC looks closer to age 30 JC than age 31/32 FVV looks like age 29 FVV. The number is likely 50% of FVV's number and I think you could more easily get him on a 3 year deal. Assume JC gets 3/60 and FVV gets 4/100 and its pretty close.

Again.. I'd rather not pay either of them and pay a guy that is 24-26 today so that I can assume with more certainty that the contract will age well. It would be more important to make sure I don't have a potentially horrible deal on the books 2 years from now than to fill an immediate need.

 

[fishonjazz]

I would pass on FVV. Undersized and FG% is horrendous. His TS% isn’t much better either.

Especially pass on him at the price HH is saying he will command.


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[fishonjazz]

Looked at a few different actions on nba.com... was surprised to see how high Sexton is scoring in iso and as a pick and roll ball handler. In addition to playing him at the pg we need to have him running more pick and roll actions these last 20 or so games. Get a bigger sample. JC needs to move a bit more off ball to explore what we have here. He was like high 90s and 80-ish percentile on most offensive actions.

It isn't enough just to play the young guys these next 20 games or so... we must let them explore the room.

Agreed. I want to see what ochai can do besides stand in the corner too.


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[fishonjazz]

I have a hard time seeing us using a ton of our cap space on FVV. We keep hearing how the Jazz are going for positional size at every position...doesn't make a lot of sense to spend $30 million or more a season on a 6'1 point guard, especially when we already have one of those on the roster. He also turns 29 this year, so he may not fit the timeline.

Also, no way is FVV 6’1


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[Jingled]

Also, no way is FVV 6’1


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Yeah, he's probably around 5'11 or 6'0.

 

[KqWIN]

I get that... I just think there is a chance he is worth $5M more/less than what he signs for the first two years of that deal and then goes full Kemba Walker and is done. He's tiny and they way those guys play puts some hard miles on dudes.

I guess a better way to put it for me is I would rather overpay for a guy now that would project to be in his prime in 2 years versus one that will almost surely be on the downslide and maybe on a steep decline. Age is particularly brutal on small pgs.

With JC I think age is one factor here... I'd be willing to bet age 33/34 JC looks closer to age 30 JC than age 31/32 FVV looks like age 29 FVV. The number is likely 50% of FVV's number and I think you could more easily get him on a 3 year deal. Assume JC gets 3/60 and FVV gets 4/100 and its pretty close.

Again.. I'd rather not pay either of them and pay a guy that is 24-26 today so that I can assume with more certainty that the contract will age well. It would be more important to make sure I don't have a potentially horrible deal on the books 2 years from now than to fill an immediate need.

I think the concerns are fair, especially because he has an extensive injury history, but I think people are harping on the size thing too much. It kinda reminds me of when everyone was panicked about trading for Marcus Smart or even Josh Hart more recently because they were deemed too short. Height matters, but what matters more is how you play and those guys played way bigger than their size. FVV is short, but he's started at SG for a great defense and been a key defender in many playoff series. He's tough as **** and I would rather have a 6'0 guy who can actually defend than a 6'5 that can't.

It wouldn't shock me if he fell off because of his injury history, and you can't totally dismiss his height, but he's is definitely made of the same cloth as Lowry, Conley, CP3 etc. He could very well be in the prime of his career, as the other short guys were. He wouldn't be plan A for me....but if there's nothing else better and FVV wants to play here I think you have to sign him.

The cap situation is also something I'm not too worried about. What is the cost of signing FVV? It uses your cap space this year. The following year you likely still have max space or close to it even with Clarkson. The year after you have also have tons of space. We're not exactly in a cap crunch, so I'm all for overpaying any good player we can get in the door.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the concerns are fair, especially because he has an extensive injury history, but I think people are harping on the size thing too much. It kinda reminds me of when everyone was panicked about trading for Marcus Smart or even Josh Hart more recently because they were deemed too short. Height matters, but what matters more is how you play and those guys played way bigger than their size. FVV is short, but he's started at SG for a great defense and been a key defender in many playoff series. He's tough as **** and I would rather have a 6'0 guy who can actually defend than a 6'5 that can't.

I’m not worried about defense as much as offense… he doesn’t have much margin for error there… if he loses some burst it could turn into Kemba/IT

It wouldn't shock me if he fell off because of his injury history, and you can't totally dismiss his height, but he's is definitely made of the same cloth as Lowry, Conley, CP3 etc. He could very well be in the prime of his career, as the other short guys were. He wouldn't be plan A for me....but if there's nothing else better and FVV wants to play here I think you have to sign him.

He could bounce back and have a good year but those guys are a class or two or three above FVV so they can slip and still be really good. He could age gracefully.

The cap situation is also something I'm not too worried about. What is the cost of signing FVV? It uses your cap space this year. The following year you likely still have max space or close to it even with Clarkson. The year after you have also have tons of space. We're not exactly in a cap crunch, so I'm all for overpaying any good player we can get in the door.

This is how cap issues start… next two years it’s not a big deal… Lauri gets a pay raise midway through that contract… Walker the following year… so it may prevent you from making other better moves. Just because there is t a better use immediately doesn’t mean there isn’t a cost in year 3 or 4. Signing FVV might leave us with max space again but we may not want to use it with Lauri due some money and FVV on the books too.

Our current situation wouldn’t warrant taking a big swing on a guy like FVV… if we could t get something long term I’d just rent the space next year and get draft assets for doing it. It’s an unnecessary risk imo and I’d just wait. I’m also assuming the cost is 4/120M or more.

 

[gomretat]

Yet we keep winning
Maybe its not as important as some people think it is.


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Indeed they do. And I hope it continues. I doubt we win enough this year for me to think Sexton is our starting PG of the future but I would love to be surprised. I actually have liked the minutes that THT has put in as well.

 

[Eddie Zero]

Also, no way is FVV 6’1


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He also lacks a 40"+ max vert, a +6" height to wingspan ratio that Bull claims.
FVV is officially listed at 6' and Sexton at 6'2 if you believe the leagues rules about accuracy in these matters now is followed.

 

[framer]

Teams with capspace are getting more rare. I'm OK with letting another team with capspace break the bank on Fred. We have a core of only a handful of players. I'd be fine with grabbing a few players for depth that have potential (like Naz Reid) than gamble on a luxury item at one high price. Spread the risk around.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I would much rather have Sexton at 16M a year than FVV at 30M or whatever he gets.

 

[KqWIN]

I’m not worried about defense as much as offense… he doesn’t have much margin for error there… if he loses some burst it could turn into Kemba/IT


He could bounce back and have a good year but those guys are a class or two or three above FVV so they can slip and still be really good. He could age gracefully.

This is how cap issues start… next two years it’s not a big deal… Lauri gets a pay raise midway through that contract… Walker the following year… so it may prevent you from making other better moves. Just because there is t a better use immediately doesn’t mean there isn’t a cost in year 3 or 4. Signing FVV might leave us with max space again but we may not want to use it with Lauri due some money and FVV on the books too.

Our current situation wouldn’t warrant taking a big swing on a guy like FVV… if we could t get something long term I’d just rent the space next year and get draft assets for doing it. It’s an unnecessary risk imo and I’d just wait. I’m also assuming the cost is 4/120M or more.

IT/Kemba were also a class above FVV. The reason why I compared him to the group I did is because he plays nothing like IT/Kemba and much more like the group of guys I had mentioned who enjoyed some of the best basketball of their careers at this age. TBH, after looking more into this, I don't really find evidence that small guys are particularly prone to falling off. I'm leaning towards that being an unfair narrative.

I don't consider FVV's contract to be a big risk. The cap concern isn't nothing, but I don't think it's a big enough concern that it should prevent us from making moves. Having one max space versus two 3 years from now isn't exactly the cap crunch I'm letting dictate my franchise. As far as our current situation, I don't see why we should be turning down really good players. We can't suck forever, and as long as Lauri is here we probably can't suck at all. If the Jazz are holding out for a superstar trade, you want to have a good team in place.

 

[KqWIN]

Teams with capspace are getting more rare. I'm OK with letting another team with capspace break the bank on Fred. We have a core of only a handful of players. I'd be fine with grabbing a few players for depth that have potential (like Naz Reid) than gamble on a luxury item at one high price. Spread the risk around.

This is actually false. There aren't as many bad contracts around. More teams are going to have cap space in the near future and this is without accounting for a major cap boom due to new media rights.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I do think you cant just sit in a holding pattern of asset accumulation/safe moves. One of the most annoying things people talk about is the timeline when they obsess over how everyone has to be within 3 years of age of each other or they "dont fit the timeline".

Lauri will be a free agent soon, got to prove to him that the team is trending up and not going to waste 3-4 years of his career.

 

[sip]

I do think you cant just sit in a holding pattern of asset accumulation/safe moves. One of the most annoying things people talk about is the timeline when they obsess over how everyone has to be within 3 years of age of each other or they "dont fit the timeline".

Lauri will be a free agent soon, got to prove to him that the team is trending up and not going to waste 3-4 years of his career.

Or you can blow your load early to become locked into a solid but not great team and then he takes off for sure because he knows there is a clear ceiling. This is definitely not the offseason to pay big bucks for marginal win now players. We need to be in a position to throw our draft picks into the fire so that we come out of next year with a pretty good understanding of what we may have. The 2024 offseason is when we need to start spending.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Or you can blow your load early to become locked into a solid but not great team and then he takes off for sure because he knows there is a clear ceiling. This is definitely not the offseason to pay big bucks for marginal win now players. We need to be in a position to throw our draft picks into the fire so that we come out of next year with a pretty good understanding of what we may have. The 2024 offseason is when we need to start spending.

It's quite literally impossible for the Jazz to be stuck with how many picks they have. Doesnt really make sense not to use the cap-space. You have to also be in the "present" asset game where you have pieces on your team that are actively helping you win and have value.

What if you sign FVV to a deal that is considered expensive, then two years down the line his deal is very fair/attractive and you can flip him for more assets if needed? I think generally you just want to add talent if you can, especially if you're Utah and you can't just obtain free agent talent at your whim. So even if 2024 is more 'optimal" there is a cost of putting your eggs in that basket and it falls through, then your stuck with essentially the same roster we have now plus some rookies who may or may not be contributing to high level winning.

Doesnt necessarily have to be FVV. Could be Kuzma/Grant/Middleton/Etc. Has to be a high level starter though.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

IT/Kemba were also a class above FVV. The reason why I compared him to the group I did is because he plays nothing like IT/Kemba and much more like the group of guys I had mentioned who enjoyed some of the best basketball of their careers at this age. TBH, after looking more into this, I don't really find evidence that small guys are particularly prone to falling off. I'm leaning towards that being an unfair narrative.

I don't consider FVV's contract to be a big risk. The cap concern isn't nothing, but I don't think it's a big enough concern that it should prevent us from making moves. Having one max space versus two 3 years from now isn't exactly the cap crunch I'm letting dictate my franchise. As far as our current situation, I don't see why we should be turning down really good players. We can't suck forever, and as long as Lauri is here we probably can't suck at all. If the Jazz are holding out for a superstar trade, you want to have a good team in place.

Maybe so... I just look at the percentages on offense and if he slips at all he becomes pretty negative on the offensive side of the ball. Still a good defender... but he's not like crazy impactful. Part of the disparity in his on/off stuff is going from him to Flynn or just nothing because of how that team works.

We won't have two max slots in 3 years... signing FVV I doubt we even have one. Lauri gets a raise to a max... add FVV at 30M... Sexton at 18M... add in a few draft picks in the 7-8 M range in addition to any other deals you signed. That may be fine but the cap gets crowded quickly.... seeing blank spaces now and offering a potentially bad contract will hinder what you do in the future. Having less talent will too... so its a give and take.

I also think I'm probably just lower on my evaluation of FVV as a player... I think he may be a bit overrated.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Maybe so... I just look at the percentages on offense and if he slips at all he becomes pretty negative on the offensive side of the ball. Still a good defender... but he's not like crazy impactful. Part of the disparity in his on/off stuff is going from him to Flynn or just nothing because of how that team works.

We won't have two max slots in 3 years... signing FVV I doubt we even have one. Lauri gets a raise to a max... add FVV at 30M... Sexton at 18M... add in a few draft picks in the 7-8 M range in addition to any other deals you signed. That may be fine but the cap gets crowded quickly.... seeing blank spaces now and offering a potentially bad contract will hinder what you do in the future. Having less talent will too... so its a give and take.

I also think I'm probably just lower on my evaluation of FVV as a player... I think he may be a bit overrated.

What's a Utah max slot worth though? Is Utah ever going to be able to sign a max UFA that is worth it?

I think Utah's best UFA strategy is always going to be trying to sign these starters who havent been seen as All-Stars, overpaying, and then trying to elevate them so they are seen as being good value contracts.

Not a UFA and was a different scenario, but it's essentially what Utah has done with Sexton.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Maybe so... I just look at the percentages on offense and if he slips at all he becomes pretty negative on the offensive side of the ball. Still a good defender... but he's not like crazy impactful. Part of the disparity in his on/off stuff is going from him to Flynn or just nothing because of how that team works.

We won't have two max slots in 3 years... signing FVV I doubt we even have one. Lauri gets a raise to a max... add FVV at 30M... Sexton at 18M... add in a few draft picks in the 7-8 M range in addition to any other deals you signed. That may be fine but the cap gets crowded quickly.... seeing blank spaces now and offering a potentially bad contract will hinder what you do in the future. Having less talent will too... so its a give and take.

I also think I'm probably just lower on my evaluation of FVV as a player... I think he may be a bit overrated.

This is also assuming we don’t re-sign Clarkson.

 

[Elizah Huge]

This is the perfect time to take a swing on someone though. We should definitely be trying to sign someone in the 20M-25M range.