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Collin Sexton SZN

Saint Cy of JFC said:
What's a Utah max slot worth though? Is Utah ever going to be able to sign a max UFA that is worth it?

I think Utah's best UFA strategy is always going to be trying to sign these starters who havent been seen as All-Stars, overpaying, and then trying to elevate them so they are seen as being good value contracts.

Not a UFA and was a different scenario, but it's essentially what Utah has done with Sexton.
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Maybe not which is why you can hunt in the Bojan range of players. I also think the cap space in 2 years can be used to renegotiate and extend Lauri, which avoids a Hayward situation. We might still be able to do that with FVV but it gets harder.

I think its a confluence of factors on FVV... smaller guard who has been rode hard... inefficient offensive player on a ****** team... big payday as he moves to the wrong side of 30... and then positionally he is harder to move than if you "overpaid" for a wing. If you overpay on a guy like DeAndre Hunter or RJ... its generally okay because a team will take a chance on a wing. Point guards... especially small ones will be harder to move. Non-shooting centers are likely the hardest to move.

I'd rather just roll forward and rent out the space this year for draft picks if that was the other option... paying FVV may end up working out but I just don't see it as some high upside outcome and it carries a **** ton of risk (any big contract does).
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Maybe not which is why you can hunt in the Bojan range of players. I also think the cap space in 2 years can be used to renegotiate and extend Lauri, which avoids a Hayward situation. We might still be able to do that with FVV but it gets harder.

I think its a confluence of factors on FVV... smaller guard who has been rode hard... inefficient offensive player on a ****** team... big payday as he moves to the wrong side of 30... and then positionally he is harder to move than if you "overpaid" for a wing. If you overpay on a guy like DeAndre Hunter or RJ... its generally okay because a team will take a chance on a wing. Point guards... especially small ones will be harder to move. Non-shooting centers are likely the hardest to move.

I'd rather just roll forward and rent out the space this year for draft picks if that was the other option... paying FVV may end up working out but I just don't see it as some high upside outcome and it carries a **** ton of risk (any big contract does).
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I'd argue it's the least risky of all the options because FVV has a track record of positive impact. But yeah, the small guard thing sucks especially when you already have Sexton who seems good enough to be a fairly high minutes player, so unless there's some idea that you are flipping him and signing FVV, probably not the best option. Plus all the messaging around Sexton/Utah has been Utah wants to find a starting PG, and that might be due to Sexton's size more than anything else.

The Hunter/RJ's of the world might be the higher upside wings, but you might also end up paying those guys 25 million for worse production than you get out of a Royce O'Neale type paid wing (RJ/Hunter both have never had + BPM seasons).
 
Elizah Huge said:
This is the perfect time to take a swing on someone though. We should definitely be trying to sign someone in the 20M-25M range.
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I agree we should hunt for some pieces. Just don't blow it all on the wrong type of guy. You don't want to have a Hawks situation where they have space and take what comes their way and overpay a bit here and there... and then they spin off Huerter cuz he's the one with trade value. I want to look for those types of deals.... find a Heurter or White type of trade... sign a guy or couple guys in the 15-25M range than will be good pieces going forward.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I'd argue it's the least risky of all the options because FVV has a track record of positive impact.

The Hunter/RJ's of the world might be the higher upside wings, but you might also end up paying those guys 25 million for worse production than you get out of a Royce O'Neale type paid wing (RJ/Hunter both have never had + BPM seasons).
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I don't think you understand the argument. If you pay for wing production it might not be all that great, but if you need to move on the trade value would likely hold - teams would trade more for RJ and Hunter on their current deals than FVV on a 4/120M+ or at very least you have a wider trade market... We just struggled to move Mike Conley and Raps found no taker for FVV.

Also FVV has been really inefficient this year. Is he slipping? Is it a bad year? Was last year the outlier? If you pay 30M a year for what he is currently... I am not sure that's a good deal.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I don't think you understand the argument. If you pay for wing production it might not be all that great, but if you need to move on the trade value would likely hold - teams would trade more for RJ and Hunter on their current deals than FVV on a 4/120M+ or at very least you have a wider trade market... We just struggled to move Mike Conley and Raps found no taker for FVV.

Also FVV has been really inefficient this year. Is he slipping? Is it a bad year? Was last year the outlier? If you pay 30M a year for what he is currently... I am not sure that's a good deal.
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Highest 2pt% efficiency of his career. Slippage is due to his catch and shoot 3pt shot not falling this year. Also the highest FTR% of his career.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Highest 2pt% efficiency of his career. Slippage is due to his catch and shoot 3pt shot not falling this year. Also the highest FTR% of his career.
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And despite of those things his TS% would basically be the worst of our rotation pieces… Rudy Gay and THT excepted.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And despite of those things his TS% would basically be the worst of our rotation pieces… Rudy Gay and THT excepted.
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Yeah, it's wild. It's even crazier that despite these poor % he's still so highly rated as an advanced metrics guy. In ORAPTOR he'd be our 2nd highest rated player, only 0.3 points behind Lauri. He's the 30th ranked offensive player according to Raptor (right in front of Alec Burks. Who ever though Burks would have 4 straight seasons over 40% from the 3pt line? Insane that Burks will end up having the best career of the "Core 4". Someone needs to give him a starting job.)

If you could take what he brings, shrink the offense a bit so he's hopefully a bit more efficient, how good could he be as a leader?
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Yeah, it's wild. It's even crazier that despite these poor % he's still so highly rated as an advanced metrics guy. In ORAPTOR he'd be our 2nd highest rated player, only 0.3 points behind Lauri. He's the 30th ranked offensive player according to Raptor (right in front of Alec Burks. Who ever though Burks would have 4 straight seasons over 40% from the 3pt line? Insane that Burks will end up having the best career of the "Core 4". Someone needs to give him a starting job.)

If you could take what he brings, shrink the offense a bit so he's hopefully a bit more efficient, how good could he be as a leader?
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Raptor is fine... I just think any stat that utilizes on/off stuff will be susceptible to some wonky things... Like is Isiah Joe one of the 20 most impactful offensive players in the league? Or is it that OKC just has zero shooting so putting a dead eye out there opens stuff up. With FVV part of that rating surely factors in his backup is Malachi Flynn. He also helps an offense that is slightly above average... we are currently an elite offense... so not sure he'd have some huge positive effect for us.

And if you take a max player... shrink their role to help them be more efficient... can you get 80% of what they bring from someone that doesn't have a $30M deal. Again... it doesn't matter next year... its not a huge deal the year after... but the last two years of the deal will be when our cap situation is getting more complicated. If he is $110-130M player over 4 years I am comfortable passing.

I know we can't stay in asset accumulation mode "forever" but we have been in that mode for less than 12 months. I'd focus on value deals in FA that can help us now and be assets later. If those aren't there I won't go yolo and blow the cap space on someone like FVV... I wouldn't bitch and complain like when we drafted Doke or dumped Favs with a first... its just not what I'd do.
 
sip said:
Or you can blow your load early to become locked into a solid but not great team and then he takes off for sure because he knows there is a clear ceiling. This is definitely not the offseason to pay big bucks for marginal win now players. We need to be in a position to throw our draft picks into the fire so that we come out of next year with a pretty good understanding of what we may have. The 2024 offseason is when we need to start spending.
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We have Rudy 2.0 growing up and an All-Star who has since he was annointed as #1 in December put up better numbers than Don ever has in his entire career... and with better efficiency.

Since Christmas (closing in on 2 months).. Lauri is 27.9/9.4 with nearly 50/40/90 splits.
Dons best year is this year with 27.2/4.0/4.5 with slightly lower splits across the board.

And Lauri is a better defender, walking mismatch and beats Donovan in literally every advanced stat.

Aaaaand some of our other players are not terrible either. Sexton might be a 20/7 level starting PG by the end of this year if he keeps improving now that he has the nod and gets the minutes.

Yet you are "tank and draft high or we will get forever stuck in mediocrity" every day of the week.

Wake up... future is now. Hopefully we add few exciting rookies be we are bound to be good anyways.
 
HermanG said:
We have Rudy 2.0 growing up and an All-Star who has since he was annointed as #1 in December put up better numbers than Don ever has in his entire career... and with better efficiency.

Since Christmas (closing in on 2 months).. Lauri is 27.9/9.4 with nearly 50/40/90 splits.
Dons best year is this year with 27.2/4.0/4.5 with slightly lower splits across the board.

And Lauri is a better defender, walking mismatch and beats Donovan in literally every advanced stat.

Aaaaand some of our other players are not terrible either. Sexton might be a 20/7 level starting PG by the end of this year if he keeps improving now that he has the nod and gets the minutes.

Yet you are "tank and draft high or we will get forever stuck in mediocrity" every day of the week.

Wake up... future is now. Hopefully we add few exciting rookies be we are bound to be good anyways.
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I agree with all of this
 
HermanG said:
We have Rudy 2.0 growing up and an All-Star who has since he was annointed as #1 in December put up better numbers than Don ever has in his entire career... and with better efficiency.

Since Christmas (closing in on 2 months).. Lauri is 27.9/9.4 with nearly 50/40/90 splits.
Dons best year is this year with 27.2/4.0/4.5 with slightly lower splits across the board.

And Lauri is a better defender, walking mismatch and beats Donovan in literally every advanced stat.

Aaaaand some of our other players are not terrible either. Sexton might be a 20/7 level starting PG by the end of this year if he keeps improving now that he has the nod and gets the minutes.

Yet you are "tank and draft high or we will get forever stuck in mediocrity" every day of the week.

Wake up... future is now. Hopefully we add few exciting rookies be we are bound to be good anyways.
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Hell, if you go back to December 1st, Lauri is averaging 27/9 on 50/42/90 splits. He’s been doing this all season. If we didn’t have Lauri we’d be desperately hoping to draft someone at the top who COULD be 3/4 as good as Lauri is currently.
 
The main point then is to secure Lauri contract. Make sure he is a long tem plan. When you got a star player, you don't chase another one until you are sure to keep the one you got. Thats also why we cannot afford to be bad for many years. Picks are nice but beeing exciting with 2027-2029 picks is just too much. We have a 3 years windows start next year, and we have to use it well.
 
FrenchJazzFa said:
The main point then is to secure Lauri contract. Make sure he is a long tem plan. When you got a star player, you don't chase another one until you are sure to keep the one you got. Thats also why we cannot afford to be bad for many years. Picks are nice but beeing exciting with 2027-2029 picks is just too much. We have a 3 years windows start next year, and we have to use it well.
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If they dont hit on at least 2 of the 3 picks this draft, they will have to bring in help for sure. I see us being worse than we have been if they are going full player development mode next year.
 
I miss watching Sexton play. I think he will miss the next two games and return on 3/18 when we play Boston. I hope.
 
Elizah Huge said:
I miss watching Sexton play. I think he will miss the next two games and return on 3/18 when we play Boston. I hope.
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Me too. haven't enjoyed the games as much without him. Though i loved hardys distribution of minutes last night. Anytime Kessler and Ochai both play over 30 minutes im happy.
 
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