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Collin Sexton SZN

Teams with capspace are getting more rare. I'm OK with letting another team with capspace break the bank on Fred. We have a core of only a handful of players. I'd be fine with grabbing a few players for depth that have potential (like Naz Reid) than gamble on a luxury item at one high price. Spread the risk around.
 
I would much rather have Sexton at 16M a year than FVV at 30M or whatever he gets.
 
I’m not worried about defense as much as offense… he doesn’t have much margin for error there… if he loses some burst it could turn into Kemba/IT


He could bounce back and have a good year but those guys are a class or two or three above FVV so they can slip and still be really good. He could age gracefully.

This is how cap issues start… next two years it’s not a big deal… Lauri gets a pay raise midway through that contract… Walker the following year… so it may prevent you from making other better moves. Just because there is t a better use immediately doesn’t mean there isn’t a cost in year 3 or 4. Signing FVV might leave us with max space again but we may not want to use it with Lauri due some money and FVV on the books too.

Our current situation wouldn’t warrant taking a big swing on a guy like FVV… if we could t get something long term I’d just rent the space next year and get draft assets for doing it. It’s an unnecessary risk imo and I’d just wait. I’m also assuming the cost is 4/120M or more.

IT/Kemba were also a class above FVV. The reason why I compared him to the group I did is because he plays nothing like IT/Kemba and much more like the group of guys I had mentioned who enjoyed some of the best basketball of their careers at this age. TBH, after looking more into this, I don't really find evidence that small guys are particularly prone to falling off. I'm leaning towards that being an unfair narrative.

I don't consider FVV's contract to be a big risk. The cap concern isn't nothing, but I don't think it's a big enough concern that it should prevent us from making moves. Having one max space versus two 3 years from now isn't exactly the cap crunch I'm letting dictate my franchise. As far as our current situation, I don't see why we should be turning down really good players. We can't suck forever, and as long as Lauri is here we probably can't suck at all. If the Jazz are holding out for a superstar trade, you want to have a good team in place.
 
Teams with capspace are getting more rare. I'm OK with letting another team with capspace break the bank on Fred. We have a core of only a handful of players. I'd be fine with grabbing a few players for depth that have potential (like Naz Reid) than gamble on a luxury item at one high price. Spread the risk around.

This is actually false. There aren't as many bad contracts around. More teams are going to have cap space in the near future and this is without accounting for a major cap boom due to new media rights.
 
I do think you cant just sit in a holding pattern of asset accumulation/safe moves. One of the most annoying things people talk about is the timeline when they obsess over how everyone has to be within 3 years of age of each other or they "dont fit the timeline".

Lauri will be a free agent soon, got to prove to him that the team is trending up and not going to waste 3-4 years of his career.
 
I do think you cant just sit in a holding pattern of asset accumulation/safe moves. One of the most annoying things people talk about is the timeline when they obsess over how everyone has to be within 3 years of age of each other or they "dont fit the timeline".

Lauri will be a free agent soon, got to prove to him that the team is trending up and not going to waste 3-4 years of his career.
Or you can blow your load early to become locked into a solid but not great team and then he takes off for sure because he knows there is a clear ceiling. This is definitely not the offseason to pay big bucks for marginal win now players. We need to be in a position to throw our draft picks into the fire so that we come out of next year with a pretty good understanding of what we may have. The 2024 offseason is when we need to start spending.
 
Or you can blow your load early to become locked into a solid but not great team and then he takes off for sure because he knows there is a clear ceiling. This is definitely not the offseason to pay big bucks for marginal win now players. We need to be in a position to throw our draft picks into the fire so that we come out of next year with a pretty good understanding of what we may have. The 2024 offseason is when we need to start spending.
It's quite literally impossible for the Jazz to be stuck with how many picks they have. Doesnt really make sense not to use the cap-space. You have to also be in the "present" asset game where you have pieces on your team that are actively helping you win and have value.

What if you sign FVV to a deal that is considered expensive, then two years down the line his deal is very fair/attractive and you can flip him for more assets if needed? I think generally you just want to add talent if you can, especially if you're Utah and you can't just obtain free agent talent at your whim. So even if 2024 is more 'optimal" there is a cost of putting your eggs in that basket and it falls through, then your stuck with essentially the same roster we have now plus some rookies who may or may not be contributing to high level winning.

Doesnt necessarily have to be FVV. Could be Kuzma/Grant/Middleton/Etc. Has to be a high level starter though.
 
IT/Kemba were also a class above FVV. The reason why I compared him to the group I did is because he plays nothing like IT/Kemba and much more like the group of guys I had mentioned who enjoyed some of the best basketball of their careers at this age. TBH, after looking more into this, I don't really find evidence that small guys are particularly prone to falling off. I'm leaning towards that being an unfair narrative.

I don't consider FVV's contract to be a big risk. The cap concern isn't nothing, but I don't think it's a big enough concern that it should prevent us from making moves. Having one max space versus two 3 years from now isn't exactly the cap crunch I'm letting dictate my franchise. As far as our current situation, I don't see why we should be turning down really good players. We can't suck forever, and as long as Lauri is here we probably can't suck at all. If the Jazz are holding out for a superstar trade, you want to have a good team in place.
Maybe so... I just look at the percentages on offense and if he slips at all he becomes pretty negative on the offensive side of the ball. Still a good defender... but he's not like crazy impactful. Part of the disparity in his on/off stuff is going from him to Flynn or just nothing because of how that team works.

We won't have two max slots in 3 years... signing FVV I doubt we even have one. Lauri gets a raise to a max... add FVV at 30M... Sexton at 18M... add in a few draft picks in the 7-8 M range in addition to any other deals you signed. That may be fine but the cap gets crowded quickly.... seeing blank spaces now and offering a potentially bad contract will hinder what you do in the future. Having less talent will too... so its a give and take.

I also think I'm probably just lower on my evaluation of FVV as a player... I think he may be a bit overrated.
 
Maybe so... I just look at the percentages on offense and if he slips at all he becomes pretty negative on the offensive side of the ball. Still a good defender... but he's not like crazy impactful. Part of the disparity in his on/off stuff is going from him to Flynn or just nothing because of how that team works.

We won't have two max slots in 3 years... signing FVV I doubt we even have one. Lauri gets a raise to a max... add FVV at 30M... Sexton at 18M... add in a few draft picks in the 7-8 M range in addition to any other deals you signed. That may be fine but the cap gets crowded quickly.... seeing blank spaces now and offering a potentially bad contract will hinder what you do in the future. Having less talent will too... so its a give and take.

I also think I'm probably just lower on my evaluation of FVV as a player... I think he may be a bit overrated.
What's a Utah max slot worth though? Is Utah ever going to be able to sign a max UFA that is worth it?

I think Utah's best UFA strategy is always going to be trying to sign these starters who havent been seen as All-Stars, overpaying, and then trying to elevate them so they are seen as being good value contracts.

Not a UFA and was a different scenario, but it's essentially what Utah has done with Sexton.
 
Maybe so... I just look at the percentages on offense and if he slips at all he becomes pretty negative on the offensive side of the ball. Still a good defender... but he's not like crazy impactful. Part of the disparity in his on/off stuff is going from him to Flynn or just nothing because of how that team works.

We won't have two max slots in 3 years... signing FVV I doubt we even have one. Lauri gets a raise to a max... add FVV at 30M... Sexton at 18M... add in a few draft picks in the 7-8 M range in addition to any other deals you signed. That may be fine but the cap gets crowded quickly.... seeing blank spaces now and offering a potentially bad contract will hinder what you do in the future. Having less talent will too... so its a give and take.

I also think I'm probably just lower on my evaluation of FVV as a player... I think he may be a bit overrated.

This is also assuming we don’t re-sign Clarkson.
 
This is the perfect time to take a swing on someone though. We should definitely be trying to sign someone in the 20M-25M range.
 
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