What's new
By:

Coronavirus

Scat said:
@JimLes @One Brow @Gameface You all need to read the entire article. It explains why engineers are better at predicting models than physicians. This person has helped create models in Liberia to quell ebola outbreaks. He did postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University’s school of public health. He has quite a bit of experience in the field.


Sounds like is more than qualified to speak on the subject.
Click to expand...
I didn't respond to you on that. I tried to read the article but it wanted me to disable ad blocking or something so I navigated away.
 
silesian said:
You are assuming that our efforts to flatten the curve will be for naught. I hope you are wrong. But with all the a-holes who are saying "it is a hoax" and that are not willing to stay home to save lives, you may be right.
Click to expand...

That’s the thing. Between the half measures (I’d guess more of society is not quarantining than is) and resources which are quickly running out, the curve won’t flatten any time soon imo. If it did, it should in about 7-10 days but I don’t think it will.
 
We (the USA) just took over top spot for number of COVID-19 cases in the world. We're number #1!

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
 
Scat said:
You all need to read the entire article. It explains why engineers are better at predicting models than physicians. This person has helped create models in Liberia to quell ebola outbreaks. He did postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University’s school of public health. He has quite a bit of experience in the field.
Click to expand...

Good for him. When we need a bridge built, we can call him. Right now, I'd rather listen to doctors.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MVP
Scat said:
I have to assume you are being purposely obtuse.
Click to expand...

No, I'm just sufficiently worried about this pandemic that I'm not sure we ought to have an academic debate on who's better at pandemic modeling, engineers or medical professionals. I also believe that it's generally a good idea to listen to people in the field and not dilettantes, and especially not people who do "theoretical research." This is real life. We can't afford to see if only 13,000 people in Israel die, like this engineer is predicting. We don't have a vaccine for this virus, we don't know how contagious it is, we don't know what the actual mortality is, and we don't know if it will mutate. We do know that it didn't take long for most countries' health care systems to be overwhelmed.

But yeah, let's listen to this guy and abandon current measures to deal with this. Maybe he's right and everyone else is wrong.
 
JimLes said:
But yeah, let's listen to this guy and abandon current measures to deal with this. Maybe he's right and everyone else is wrong.
Click to expand...
Part of this comes from not reading it, but it’s not suggesting any of that.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
That’s the thing. Between the half measures (I’d guess more of society is not quarantining than is) and resources which are quickly running out, the curve won’t flatten any time soon imo. If it did, it should in about 7-10 days but I don’t think it will.
Click to expand...

I won’t argue because it is impossible to predict. We can extrapolate current models but they do not account for the effectiveness of mitigation and other uncertainties.

I hope u are wrong.
 
silesian said:
I won’t argue because it is impossible to predict. We can extrapolate current models but they do not account for the effectiveness of mitigation and other uncertainties.

I hope u are wrong.
Click to expand...

Me too. Maybe people are being more responsible than I realize.
 
infection said:
Part of this comes from not reading it, but it’s not suggesting any of that.
Click to expand...


But, social distancing should lead to fewer cases of infection and death, no?

“No, because we won’t be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable."

Sure sounds like he doesn't agree with all of us being at home right now.
 
JimLes said:
But, social distancing should lead to fewer cases of infection and death, no?

“No, because we won’t be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable."

Sure sounds like he doesn't agree with all of us being at home right now.
Click to expand...
The idea of flattening the curve isn’t about reducing total infections, though. Just redistributing them. The exception to that would be if you delay infections long enough for a vaccine.

ETA: I’d grant that the original question was two questions (one surrounding infections and one surrounding death), but the answer may not be true for the second part of the question and that should have been better clarified, if one is assuming larger death totals secondary to an over-saturated healthcare system.
 
Last edited:
silesian said:
The cure is worse than the disease. And yes, there are many people who are saying that the economic hardships outweigh the actions necessary to save lives. And this is precisely what they mean.
Click to expand...
So in other words, no, you have not heard anyone say what you claim they are saying.

And BTW, "the cure is worse than the disease" does not mean what you are saying it does. Have you ever experienced a loved one going through cancer? If you had you would easily be able to understand that term, and you would realize that the meaning is very different than you are suggesting.
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
And BTW, "the cure is worse than the disease" does not mean what you are saying it does. Have you ever experienced a loved one going through cancer? If you had you would easily be able to understand that term, and you would realize that the meaning is very different than you are suggesting.
Click to expand...

figurative language is hard
 
silesian said:
you obviously didn’t look where I told you to look. Do your homework.
Click to expand...
You obviously didn't suggest that I look there until a separate post that you sent later, and I'm not doing homework that you assign anyway. I think it's meaningless that you ask me to search out some random and anonymous dope who makes a dumb statement. Your original post that I responded to implied that right-to-lifers were now callously suggesting that old people's lives have no value. Your claim remains unsubstantiated. Your quote was made up, just as I had suspected.
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
He is an ultra-biased partisan. Anyone who can't see that isn't paying attention. And while it's possible to be farther left than he is, that doesn't mean he isn't left.
Click to expand...
Supporting Joe Biden isn't left. It's right. Your just mad he isn't a far right idiot like you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top