Coronavirus




silesian

Well-Known Member
It’s a foregone conclusion.

We had 13,000 new cases yesterday. We have 12,600+ already today.

We went from 819 deaths yesterday at 1:45pm to 1,100 today. That’s a 34% increase which isn’t an anomaly.


At a 22% increase each day, we’ll be at 1,158,742 deaths come May 1.

The rate won’t stay that high for five weeks but it very well could for 3+ before starting to come down.

You are assuming that our efforts to flatten the curve will be for naught. I hope you are wrong. But with all the a-holes who are saying "it is a hoax" and that are not willing to stay home to save lives, you may be right.
 

silesian

Well-Known Member
Do you have links to anyone actually saying this, or are you just making it up?
Go to Ben Shapiro's facebook page, quite a few people there. Other right wing social media has varieties of "I'm a tough guy, so what if a few people die, losing my job is worse", or it is a complete hoax, or the democrats created the virus to defeat trump, or the democrats are exaggerating the hospital limits so that trump is not elected.

They have latched onto the "it's all about Trump" theme.
 

Gameface

Be Brave Enough To Be the Light!
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
@JimLes @One Brow @Gameface You all need to read the entire article. It explains why engineers are better at predicting models than physicians. This person has helped create models in Liberia to quell ebola outbreaks. He did postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University’s school of public health. He has quite a bit of experience in the field.


Sounds like is more than qualified to speak on the subject.
I didn't respond to you on that. I tried to read the article but it wanted me to disable ad blocking or something so I navigated away.
 

Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
You are assuming that our efforts to flatten the curve will be for naught. I hope you are wrong. But with all the a-holes who are saying "it is a hoax" and that are not willing to stay home to save lives, you may be right.

That’s the thing. Between the half measures (I’d guess more of society is not quarantining than is) and resources which are quickly running out, the curve won’t flatten any time soon imo. If it did, it should in about 7-10 days but I don’t think it will.
 

JazzGal

Well-Known Member
Contributor
We (the USA) just took over top spot for number of COVID-19 cases in the world. We're number #1!

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
 

JimLes

Well-Known Member
You all need to read the entire article. It explains why engineers are better at predicting models than physicians. This person has helped create models in Liberia to quell ebola outbreaks. He did postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University’s school of public health. He has quite a bit of experience in the field.

Good for him. When we need a bridge built, we can call him. Right now, I'd rather listen to doctors.
 
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infection

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JimLes

Well-Known Member
I have to assume you are being purposely obtuse.

No, I'm just sufficiently worried about this pandemic that I'm not sure we ought to have an academic debate on who's better at pandemic modeling, engineers or medical professionals. I also believe that it's generally a good idea to listen to people in the field and not dilettantes, and especially not people who do "theoretical research." This is real life. We can't afford to see if only 13,000 people in Israel die, like this engineer is predicting. We don't have a vaccine for this virus, we don't know how contagious it is, we don't know what the actual mortality is, and we don't know if it will mutate. We do know that it didn't take long for most countries' health care systems to be overwhelmed.

But yeah, let's listen to this guy and abandon current measures to deal with this. Maybe he's right and everyone else is wrong.
 

infection

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But yeah, let's listen to this guy and abandon current measures to deal with this. Maybe he's right and everyone else is wrong.
Part of this comes from not reading it, but it’s not suggesting any of that.
 

silesian

Well-Known Member
That’s the thing. Between the half measures (I’d guess more of society is not quarantining than is) and resources which are quickly running out, the curve won’t flatten any time soon imo. If it did, it should in about 7-10 days but I don’t think it will.

I won’t argue because it is impossible to predict. We can extrapolate current models but they do not account for the effectiveness of mitigation and other uncertainties.

I hope u are wrong.
 

JimLes

Well-Known Member
Part of this comes from not reading it, but it’s not suggesting any of that.


But, social distancing should lead to fewer cases of infection and death, no?

“No, because we won’t be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable."

Sure sounds like he doesn't agree with all of us being at home right now.
 

infection

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But, social distancing should lead to fewer cases of infection and death, no?

“No, because we won’t be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable."

Sure sounds like he doesn't agree with all of us being at home right now.
The idea of flattening the curve isn’t about reducing total infections, though. Just redistributing them. The exception to that would be if you delay infections long enough for a vaccine.

ETA: I’d grant that the original question was two questions (one surrounding infections and one surrounding death), but the answer may not be true for the second part of the question and that should have been better clarified, if one is assuming larger death totals secondary to an over-saturated healthcare system.
 
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tfivas

Well-Known Member
2019 Prediction Contest Winner
Some of these numbers are insane, especially compared to where Utah is at.

Capture.PNG
 

Joe Bagadonuts

Well-Known Member
The cure is worse than the disease. And yes, there are many people who are saying that the economic hardships outweigh the actions necessary to save lives. And this is precisely what they mean.
So in other words, no, you have not heard anyone say what you claim they are saying.

And BTW, "the cure is worse than the disease" does not mean what you are saying it does. Have you ever experienced a loved one going through cancer? If you had you would easily be able to understand that term, and you would realize that the meaning is very different than you are suggesting.
 

silesian

Well-Known Member
And BTW, "the cure is worse than the disease" does not mean what you are saying it does. Have you ever experienced a loved one going through cancer? If you had you would easily be able to understand that term, and you would realize that the meaning is very different than you are suggesting.

figurative language is hard
 

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