anything over fractions of a percentage point is absurd.
I think there's a shot, and it hinges on a few things
- We need to get healthy, and we need to get healthy quickly. One of the things that will help is that if our squad galvanizes and gets healthy, maybe we'll be able to identify minute roster-holes that can be addressed via trade. That's why it's important to get healthy before the trade deadline in February.
- I'm truly not fearful of any Western Conference opponent except for the Warriors. I think that match-up might come down to our bench vs. theirs, and how much grief Favors can cause Durant (as I'm thinking that'll be the body we throw on him, not sure how much Hayward has ever bothered him historically speaking). Their bench should have zero business keeping up with ours though, and we just have so many tools to throw at them if something isn't working out. Get Diaw on the floor to guard Draymond if we need offence. Get JJ on the floor to exploit isos if they're switching everything. Etc. etc.
This is kinda our year, guys. I'm not sure how much of this core will be retained in the years to come. Quin currently has this team operating as a top 10 offence and top 10 defence (only the Clips and the Dubs join us in this regard), and we have really good team morale. Good vets, good contracts, and the west is kinda wide-open after the first 3 seeds. We should be able to secure homecourt if we can simply get our health together.
And honestly even if we were to make the Finals and lose, that would still be a tremendous accomplishment for this team and the organization.
I'm fiercely expecting a 2nd round appearance in the playoffs from our team, and I think it's reasonable to hope for a conference finals berth. Winning the west seems impossible until you realize we're firmly in the playoff race even after constantly missing time from 2-3 starters on our team.
You do realize "fan" is part of fanatic. If you are a fan you have to believe you have a shot. If not then why even care?
A few story lines
Exum - realizes his potential, starts knocking down outside shots and becomes lick down defender. This would drive Curry crazy
Favors - developed a goto low post game and becomes unstoppable. Only the clips have a low post team capable of competing with the jazz.
Rudy - goes all world and no one can score with in 5' of the basket allowing the jazz to become more aggressive on the perimeter. Disrupting passing and shooting
Hayward - his scoring is Jordanesqe. Put the ball in his hands and he will find a way to score
Hood - goes off from outside and is listed among the great 3 point shooters.
Johnson - finds the fountain of youth and comes off the bench scoring like he use to.
Lyles - gets it. Both offense and defense and no one can stop him. He is a mismatch no mayer where he is.
Hill - quietly becomes the second greatest point guard ever to Don a jazz jersey.
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I thought about him and then forgot. SorryYou do realize that you forgot Alec Burks, right?
That is what makes me excited. We can be really good this year!
Sometimes I fantasize about those old Disney/90s sports TV shows where the star makes a miraculous comeback during the championship game. Kinda like its the final play and they go to their bench, and all of a sudden the start quarterback is able to tough it out and win the game. I fantasize about Alec Burks doing that in the playoffs. (I'd much rather he come back sooner though!)
Ya don't sayAnd honestly even if we were to make the Finals and lose, that would still be a tremendous accomplishment for this team and the organization.
Your idea that there is a substantive difference between 4% and "fractions of a percentage point"... is absurd.
That 4% is based on a model which only has the Warriors title chances at 45%, I think the Warriors chances are more like double that. So you can quickly see the difference between fractions of a percentage point and 4% after that majority slice of the pie is subtracted..
Wait, let me get this straight. You think the Dubs chances of winning it all are around 90%?
I think we (fully healthy) could run with any of the teams, minus the Warriors, by the end of the year.
Golden State would require an injury to one of their 3 best players and maybe two of them...
Good postAt the end of the day basketball is a make or miss league an the Warriors have a lot of players who makes a lot of shots no matter how good the defense is.
if the Warriors are healthy nobody is beating them this year. hell, they may only lose one or two games in the playoffs - if that.
Lebron is still the best player in the world, he can beat them for sure.