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Culture of winning or tank?

Win or tank?

  • Total voters
    96
David Hume said:
Last 25 MVPs drafted into the NBA:



Player. Drafted

  1. Nikola Jokic 41
  2. Joel Embiid. 3
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo. 15
  4. James Harden. 3
  5. Russell Westbrook 4
  6. Steph Curry. 7
  7. Kevin Durant. 2
  8. LeBron James. 1
  9. Derrick Rose. 1
  10. Kobe Bryant. 13
  11. Dirk Nowitzki. 9
  12. Steve Nash. 15
  13. Kevin Garnett. 5
  14. Tim Duncan. 1
  15. Allen Iverson. 1
  16. Shaquille O’Neil. 1
  17. Karl Malone. 13
  18. Michael Jordan. 3
  19. David Robinson. 1
  20. Hakeem Olajuwon. 1
  21. Charles Barkley. 5
  22. Magic Johnson. 1
  23. Larry Bird. 6
  24. Moses Malone came from ABA
  25. Julius Erving 12
  26. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. 1




Number of MVPs drafted by pick

1st pick: 9

2nd pick: 1

3rd pick: 3

4th pick: 1

5th pick: 2

6th pick: 1

7th pick: 1

8th pick: 0

9th pick: 1

10th pick: 0

11th pick: 0

12th pick: 1

13th pick: 2

14th pick: 0

15th pick: 2

41st pick: 1

ABA: 1

Picks 16-40: 0

Picks 42-60: 0

All other: 0



1st picks look pretty good to me.
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Good post

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David Hume said:
One extreme thought experiment is this: for the next 40 years would you rather have:

(A) the first pick in each draft
(B) a random pick in each draft
(C) the 60th pick in each draft

The answer might be pertinent to the current discussion.
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Do I get to have a great team that is winning lots of games each year for these 3 scenarios? If so then I choose (A)

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JimLes said:
Been there, done that. Got Dante and honestly, **** Dante. I wish we had just traded that pick for anything.
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Dante. Kanter. Favors. All top 3 picks for us.
Deron was awesome but we got him and did well In free agency/trades and built an awesome team and still didn't really ever contend for a championship.

Most likely nothing we do will get us a championship.

Might as well win as often as possible.

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Here's some more crazy trivia.

Last time a team drafted a player at #1 who became an MVP was 2008. 16 years ago and even then, it was actually a disastrous pick for that team.

Last time we can say that a team drafted a absolute all-time great who could lead teams to championships at #1 was in 2003, before Wemby was born.

Last time a team drafted a player at #1 who would lead them to a championship was 1998. Last time before that was 1984.

Again, I'm not saying you're not likely to get a good or even great player with a number one pick. You're not getting a ATG who will lead your franchise to glory, though.
 
What pick was brunson? Dude seems like an MVP level dude. As shocking as that is.

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JimLes said:
NBA teams have objectively gotten worse at drafting and there are more busts now than ever, especially at the top. Do you wanna pick top 5 instead of not picking top 5? Of course, of course. It's just that the cost of it may be greater than it seems.
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Actually, the opposite is true. The NBA teams were much, much worse at drafting in the past. This is the link to the first picks: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NBA_draft_picks. Since they are color-coded you can see that back in the 60s and 70s many 1st picks simply failed to notch a single All-Star selection. And among those that did many ended up being only marginal All Stars. This has not changed much in the 80s, when Jordan, Malone, Barkley, Stockton, Drexler, Pippen were all taken later. Why? Because in the past the GMNs stubbornly drafted any decent looking centers with their 1st and 2nd picks. That's how we kept ending up with olowokandis, kwame browns and sam bowies of the world.

It's only in the last 15-20 years when the teams started actually consider ALL positions for their top picks. And if you look at the last 5 drafts, 4 out of 5 first picks would still be selected first based on what we know today.
 
Of course teams became better at drafting over time: there is much more tape on prospects, much greater use of analytics, better understanding of what the teams can improve in prospects by coaching and physical programs. The reason why the draft is still far from certainty is because the talent pool has become became truly global and you have to somehow compare euros from the weak professional leagues against American players in the NCAA etc.

Also, the NBA stars have become much more skilled than before: they have to be able to score, defend on the perimeter, hit threes, be good passers, maintain their body for the entire season and, often, The international tournaments... In the past a good size and athleticism alone were a much better predictor of future prospects. You did not have to guess if this center could develop a three point game or that wing could become a good playmaker. Drafting teenagers into the hardest professional league is an incredibly hard job and, I think, those doing it should be appreciated a bit more.
 
No, the NBA teams have gotten objectively worse at drafting. It's that simple. Here's an article, along with its statistical analysis, as a start.

quantimschmitz.com

NBA teams have gotten worse at drafting. Why?

NBA teams have gotten worse at drafting over the last 40 years. I look into when this happened, how drafting high school players made the draft harder in the late 90s, and why the future of the NBA draft might be more full of draft day misses than ever before.
quantimschmitz.com quantimschmitz.com
 
I know i'm probably the only one on this forum who think DA really f... up with the team and should retire. We were one good player away to be able to go for a title ( need huge upgrade on O Neal) and DA decide to blow it up.... Result Don is shining at Cleveland, Rudy and Mike are so important for Minny that they re-sign longer term there. Cavs and Minny will be very good again the next 2 to 3 years, which make our pick really bad.
If we decide to tank, we should have done it 2 years ago and manage to have a chance to get Wemby.

Hope at least this year we end up getting number 1 or 2 at the draft. But i still believe we will need another 5 years to be good, and it's not even sure when you look players drafts on top recently.

JA is good but Memphis is far from a title contender.
Zion is good but NO is not.
This year Sarr and Risacher will be decent players but not franchise changing level type....

And even if we pickup a guy who become a top player, except Lauri, no one here is a starter in a contending team ( unless they improve by a mile for Kessler and Keyonte).

Time will tell.... but i still think the strategy was not the good one.
 
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