My disagreements with your "Myths."
1. Teams to sign players assuming that they will have good team chemistry, or they have rookies that shine and make veterans with higher contracts expendable (Look at the Hornets all of a sudden considering trading Chris Paul.)
Also, don't forget how the financial situations of the team owners figures in. If a team isn't winning, and has a good player and the owner is strapped, they will be willing to deal superior players to save money at the end of the year. It happens all over the league.
It may happen all over the league, but it isn't happening here. Especially considering how much we overvalue Andrei. If we won't trade Andrei for Marion, Stoudemire, Carter, Ginobili, etc., then there's no way on earth we will deal him for what we're going to get offered this year.
2. The Jazz don't have to take back a dollar for dollar salary match in a trade with Boozer. In a situation like this off season with multiple teams being far under the Salary Cap, there will be teams that can deal players with smaller contracts to take back guys with big salaries, with out matching contracts. OKC, Miami, NYC, New Jersey, LAC, Chicago etc. all have the ability to take on a max contract, and give a guy back to the Jazz for a smaller Salary, just like the Harpring/Maynor for Fehse trade. In addition, the Jazz could receive back another trade exception to sweeten the deal.
I understand. The problem, however, is that these teams are far enough under the cap that they can sign Boozer outright. Of course they would want to dump a few guys off to clear their salary, but the Jazz won't take the salary dump when they can just let him go, especially considering the other team wouldn't have to sweeten the deal for us -- they'd just have to sign Boozer.
3. The Jazz have to use the MLE to fill roster spots unless they are planning on bringing in 4 minimum salary players to start the season. Won't happen. I suspect the Jazz have some targets for the MLE and the LLE and will use them both.
They don't have targets, which is part of the myth that everyone will eat up so that when training camp opens and our roster is the same, we change our perspective from "they've got guys they're eye-balling" to "they tried their damnedest but it just didn't work out". It's an easy sell.
4. Whether they resign Boozer, or use him in a sign and trade, the Jazz will acquire an above average player in the post during the off season. They may not be as good as Boozer, but the Jazz aren't going into the season with a healthy line up of Millsap/Koufos and Fesenko/Nobody.
Don't hold your breath.
5. I agree that the Jazz aren't sure who all will they will try to bring back, and I agree that Wes Matthews is about a 95% lock to come back. As far as Fes, Boozer and Korver go, they will probably wait for the offers to roll in, and then react. I don't think that's a bad thing though really, I don't think losing either Fes or Korver would cripple the Jazz, and nobody knows what kind of a look Boozer is going to get. My guess is the Jazz have an offer ready for Boozer come July 1, but he will wait to hear what other people have to offer.
The only way possible the Jazz have an offer by July 1st is if they decided against bringing him back and low-ball him to push him somewhere else and for PR so that they can say they were aggressive in trying to ink him.
6. It's hard to say what the Jazz will do, they may decide to save the money those offer, but if they have a chance to push themselves into contender status by using them, they will make more money off of the extra playoff games they'll play than they would have had they saved the cash initially.
They will not be able to put pieces together to make us a contender, which is why our ultimate goal is to stay within the window of profitability.
If I'm the Suns or the Spurs, I'd take a look at AK in a trade, since my window of opportunity to contend is shutting fast and AK could be a shot in the arm on a veteran team.
Could be, but again there's nothing of value we could receive from these teams.
Umm, you're dead wrong on AK's value. IF the Jazz are UNDER the laxury tax threshold (or very near) then AK's expiring DOES increase in value as the deadline approaches.
1. I agree a contending team is not going to offer equal value. At best, we could expect a backup and a #1 draft pick (which would be mid-to-late 20's). And there probably won't be too many contenders with $17M in space. We'd have to take back an equal amount in salaries. Still, say a contender has an injured player (or overpaid backup) whose contract is also set to expire. They feel they need some additional help at SF/PF. We trade them Andrei for their expiring garbage or players we subsequently buy out (like was done with Ilgauskas), perhaps one decent young player and their 2011 1st rounder.
The value they place on Andrei is far greater than garbage + a first round pick.
2. As for a non-contender...if we let Boozer and Korver walk, the Jazz get very near the tax threshold. That means Utah CAN afford to take back nearly $17M in salary. So Team X, coming up on the deadline, realizes they are out of contention, the owner decides to rebuild and dump salary. Team X trades player(s) with 2-3 years remaining on their contracts, plus a lottery-protected 2012 pick. I realize 2011 doesn't have the same class of FA's coming out, but there will be teams looking to dump veterans, especially if they're making room for a rookie that has come on strong in the 1st half of the season. Another possibility is trading AK for a player making say $9M and realizing the remaining amount in tax/cap savings. Salaries don't have to match if the other team has cap space to cover the difference.
The Jazz will not commit themselves to a longer contract than Andrei's (even if it is much smaller in size).
...I think the Jazz will trade Kirilenko and a future 1st to a team under the cap and receive nothing of value in return.
This is what I wish more people understood. If anything, it will be
us having to add incentive to deals with Andrei. Imagine the Ronnie Brewer deal. Now imagine the Ronnie Brewer deal where we throw in a draft pick -- this is more along the lines of what we're looking at.
I know that a few of my ideas are contradictory, such as overvaluing Andrei in some deals and then completely dumping him in others, but this is honestly the vibe we get from the front office. Either we balk at a deal where we think Andrei is a key part to our team or we get desperate to clear salary and dump him at any cost (but this will only be the case
if we will be over the luxury tax).
In all reality, however, Andrei will remain on the team for the duration of his contract.
