Does Lauri Get Traded?

[Handlogten's Heros]

I definitely remember people saying that we should have taken the rumored MIA package just to get into the tank right away. Had incredibly long discussions about it. What you’re saying about taking the best offer on the table is the more or less the same thing. The reason why you take the best offer instead of going into the season to wait for a better offer is to start the tanking right away.

Before I took a short break, it seemed like the godfather package was Wemby lol. But realistically I think the godfather package would be similar ish to the Bridges package.

I'll raise my hand here. I did think the Miami offer was worth considering for sure. Part of it was pushing back on the notion that they had nothing to offer. I just didn't think the offer was "trash".

 

[HermanG]

I'll raise my hand here. I did think the Miami offer was worth considering for sure. Part of it was pushing back on the notion that they had nothing to offer. I just didn't think the offer was "trash".

You werent the only one. There have been so many guys lamenting the "poor tanking" of 2022-23 and basically all of them are in the same boat. Those guys cant go back to rewrite history and tinker the "perfect tanking roster" in hindsight that also keeps Lauri, Sexton, Kessler and everyone who is of some value now.

We missed out on Wemby which sucks. But if we would instead do that deep tank now by selling Lauri and Sexton we could have like 5-6 extra FRPs compared to doing the "sell low to tank" trades in the 2022 offseason. And if we dont sell them, then we are already in position to build up really fast if we land our version of Jason Tatum or whoever.

 

[KqWIN]

How much would you be willing to include in a trade up from say... 8 to 3 to get your guy?

Of course that's all hypothetical... but lets say the FO has some model that tells them, with Lauri we finish with the 8th odds, without him we finish 3d... How much would it take to trade up to 3 from 8? Theoretically you should be willing to get that much less in a trade... that is in the worst case scenario of course.

This is the right way to think about things. I think the "is tanking good/bad" is kind of a useless topic to talk about and especially in a bad sense, it always ends up at the same place. What you really have to assess is how much better do you think Lauri makes us, how much is that worth.

The only thing I would add is that "lotto position" is a lot different than draft position.

 

[jazznik]

Well, it prevents us from having a good product to watch for a year+ and you have to completely flip your conventions in order to root against your favorite team. I think even the most logical fan, who understands the value of tanking should at least put a bit more weight into that aspect. Having an absolutely terrible team to root for, sucks.

I beg to differ. Watching the same tired Mitchell-Gobert-Bogey team was absolutely terrible. Because the result was totally predictable even before the season started: a decent regular season where every player is playing the same exact role as the last year and the year before, followed by the inevitable limp first-round exit. And watching a squad of young prospects growing together is exciting because the result is unknown. Who will step up, who will fail, who will become a leader?

 

[idiot]

I don't think we have to trade Lauri but we need to trade a couple more vets. The easiest way to tank is to move Lauri though and it obviously yields a "haul". I think unlike some years in the past there are less teams that will enter the tank race because they are all in on winning or don't own their own picks or are close enough to the play-in etc. I think it may cost Kessler or Sexton... maybe both? I think I'd try to retain Lauri unless there is a crazy offer out there.

I'm not sure if we're supposed to regard each other as adversaries in this debate, but I'm totally on board with this thought (though I'd keep Kessler -- I have a hard time seeing him as a vet, and I think his upside is still something very useful to strong teams).

 

[homeytennis]

Why do I have the feeling that a team made up of guys in the NBA Dumpster at the moment would likely beat our first string?

 

[KqWIN]

I think the options are different as I think we could legitimately keep Lauri long term. So I'd weigh the offers differently. I think if we extend him he likely finishes the season on the roster. At that point the trade might be motivated by his impatience. For me the question is... if they don't bowl us over for Lauri... what will I accept for Sexton and Kessler so I can tank.

I think the Sexton/Kessler decisions can be made on their own independent of Lauri, but of course they are intertwined to some extent. The stakes are just much lower all around compared to Lauri. I don't care to make the individual arguments for either, but I definitely can see someone talking themselves into seeing them have a long term future here. They are aren't valuable vets that have no use a team that is not capable of competing for the playoffs. It took Ainge forever to get to this point, but I'm ok keeping them or eating a little value to tank a bit more. Wish we were here two years ago.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You werent the only one. There have been so many guys lamenting the "poor tanking" of 2022-23 and basically all of them are in the same boat. Those guys cant go back to rewrite history and tinker the "perfect tanking roster" in hindsight that also keeps Lauri, Sexton, Kessler and everyone who is of some value now.

We missed out on Wemby which sucks. But if we would instead do that deep tank now by selling Lauri and Sexton we could have like 5-6 extra FRPs compared to doing the "sell low to tank" trades in the 2022 offseason. And if we dont sell them, then we are already in position to build up really fast if we land our version of Jason Tatum or whoever.

And I didn't blame them too much for muffing the Wemby tank... they were much better than many thought. I did think we were a mid 30s win team and should have sold low on Bogey/Conley if we had to. Still didn't kill them.

Last year I really didn't care cuz the draft sucked.

This year is different. We know what we have with our vets. We know this draft is good. We know how the half assed tank has worked. They don't have many excuses if they don't do the smart thing imo.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the Sexton/Kessler decisions can be made on their own independent of Lauri, but of course they are intertwined to some extent. The stakes are just much lower all around compared to Lauri. I don't care to make the individual arguments for either, but I definitely can see someone talking themselves into seeing them have a long term future here. They are aren't valuable vets that have no use a team that is not capable of competing for the playoffs. It took Ainge forever to get to this point, but I'm ok keeping them or eating a little value to tank a bit more. Wish we were here two years ago.

I think Collin has the best chance at coming back to bite us a bit if we sell low, but he also might drive winning more than Kessler now. I just think it has to be one of those two unless we find a sucker for a JC or two.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I beg to differ. Watching the same tired Mitchell-Gobert-Bogey team was absolutely terrible. Because the result was totally predictable even before the season started: a decent regular season where every player is playing the same exact role as the last year and the year before, followed by the inevitable limp first-round exit. And watching a squad of young prospects growing together is exciting because the result is unknown. Who will step up, who will fail, who will become a leader?

Definitely for that last season, it was obvious where things were headed, but I don't agree for the seasons before that. Sure we ended up with disappointing early exits, but the seasons leading up to them were fun, and you could definitely be optimistic about the team taking a jump into at least the Semifinals. Bubble year, and the year we had the one seed especially.

 

[stitches]

This is the right way to think about things. I think the "is tanking good/bad" is kind of a useless topic to talk about and especially in a bad sense, it always ends up at the same place. What you really have to assess is how much better do you think Lauri makes us, how much is that worth.

Yep, agreed. Lauri has value of his own that we no longer have once we trade him(for less presumably). So I guess the exact question is which one should we go for:

- Lauri+8th
- Lauri+3d - what it takes to get from 8 to 3
- 3d pick + whatever we diminished value we get for Lauri

This assumes you even get a willing trade partner at 3, in a lot of cases in those types of drafts teams are not willing to move off of a premier talent.

The only thing I would add is that "lotto position" is a lot different than draft position.

Yeah, I was just trying to simplify things.

 

[fishonjazz]

I'm very solidly in the team that thinks Danny will eventually be "forced" to trade Lauri. Its just not necessarily gonna happen this offseason.

Its just that one of two things will eventually happen (or they meet in the middle):
- Timeline gets too whacky
- The godfather offer comes

So unless something accelerates the timeline or unless the trade market outlook changes dramatically from this arms race situation... I dont see how DA would not eventually be put into the situation where making the move is the smartest thing to do.

I know what could accelerate the timeline......

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