Does Lauri Get Traded?

[Handlogten's Heros]

Keep good players on rookie contracts seems kind of smart.

Getting a star player on a rookie deal that is 4 years long is better while also cashing in on some value on a guy that is on a rookie deal for two years.

If we are trying to thread the needle to get a top 5 pick while keeping Lauri there isn’t gonna be a ton of margin to maximize that opportunity.

 

[SoUjazzfan]

I'm content to run with what we have through the trade deadline. If there are signs of potential, roll with it through the end of the season and fill in the gaps next year. I'm excited to see the rooks and if key and Hendricks have improved over the off-season

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Getting a star player on a rookie deal that is 4 years long is better while also cashing in on some value on a guy that is on a rookie deal for two years.

If we are trying to thread the needle to get a top 5 pick while keeping Lauri there isn’t gonna be a ton of margin to maximize that opportunity.

You can get a star rookie without a top 5 pick and unless you finish with the 3rd or worst record the odds say you are drafting outside the top 5.

 

[MTS]

Man.

"It will help us lose a few more games" is, from a sheer probability perspective, a really horrible reason to trade a player that apparently has a strong impact on winning, especially if he's a really young player.

If we lost a few more games in 2024, you know who that would have gotten us in the draft? Cody Williams.

 

[Elizah Huge]

We will absolutely be the 7th or 8th worst team in the league if we do nothing the rest of the offseason.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

We will absolutely be the 7th or 8th worst team in the league if we do nothing the rest of the offseason.

That sounds like an amazing outcome I would sign up for 11/10 times.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

If we landed a top 5 guy next year I think we could see a shift to more win now. Once you have that potential superstar it’s easier to move forward. Would have a better idea of what the kids look like too. He could still be moved for sure I’m not sure if the value today is higher than if he was extended but I doubt it lowers so long as he’s healthy.

IDK… it’s all up in the air right now lol.

This is the biggest reason why I think the trade won't go through this summer unless it's completely bonkers of a haul. Lauri flashed improved playmaking when we run some plays which we did for KO pre trades. I could see him average 25/9/3-4 assists, bc his role is even bigger it was last season. It both increases his value and makes it even harder to pull the trigger, especially if Jazz somehow can lose enough to land high pick.

 

[HermanG]

Man.

"It will help us lose a few more games" is, from a sheer probability perspective, a really horrible reason to trade a player that apparently has a strong impact on winning, especially if he's a really young player.

If we lost a few more games in 2024, you know who that would have gotten us in the draft? Cody Williams.

Also the flat lottety odds are just ignored in the reasonings.

Like when Tech was traded the reasoning for some was we improve our pick. Well in hindsight keeping him would have probably given us #1 overall.

Its not really worth giving up on a young winning player just to land 5% better lottery odds.

I endorse Lauri trade not for the tanking part but for the fact that the trade haul is a better package of assets than the player if you are building a contender for 2029 and beyond.

 

[HermanG]

Also 2029 wasnt a random year. Thats when this years and last years draftees have all passed 24 years of age (barely).

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The only two teams I see as clear cut worse than the Jazz no matter what happens are the Wizards and Nets.

The next three teams? I dont think it's a given.

Charlotte Hornets?
Ball-Melo-Bridges is potentially better than the Jazz's trio of Sexton-Lauri-Collins(?) (I dont even know who the Jazz's 3rd best player next season is!) Grant Williams/Mark Williams round out what is a pretty good starting 5 if they are healthy, plus they play in a softer conference across the board. They just signed a HC people have been hyping up in every hiring cycle for the past few years. Adding Josh Green will give them improved depth. After re-signing Bridges will they have additional money to get a good MLE contributor for depth?

I would say Utah is probably better if they dont trade anyone off, but I dont think it's a given. A lot of this hinges on them bringing back Miles Bridges, which seems to be the most likely Bridges outcome. Also, we really have no idea how good this Charlotte team can be with a healthy Ball.

Detroit Pistons?
To me they are another bad team who can take a leap into competence fairly easily. Cade could be due for a huge year. They will bring back Simone. They signed Tobias Harris who fits perfectly. They brought in a vet like THJ. Could be a huge 3rd year for a guy like Duren. They signed a competent coach. Everything points towards them trying to win games to prove they arent pathetic. I think they a lower wins ceiling than a healthy Hornets, but given they play in a weak conference, I wouldnt be shocked if they are a high 20's win team.

Portland Trailblazers?
They traded for Deni Advija, a guy who was being hyped to all hell around these parts. They drafted Donovan Clingan, a guy who could be a dominant defensive rookie. They have Jerami Grant. They have Afernee Simons. Does Scoot take a 2nd year leap? Does Shaedon Sharpe take a 3rd year leap? Does Ayton play motivated not to lose his spot to a rookie? I would put them at an extremely low chance to be better than Utah given Billups doesnt seem competent to this point, but there is a non-zero chance they surprise people early before having to pull tanking moves.

 

[MTS]

The only two teams I see as clear cut worse than the Jazz no matter what happens are the Wizards and Nets.

The next three teams? I dont think it's a given.

Charlotte Hornets?
Ball-Melo-Bridges is potentially better than the Jazz's trio of Sexton-Lauri-Collins(?) (I dont even know who the Jazz's 3rd best player next season is!) Grant Williams/Mark Williams round out what is a pretty good starting 5 if they are healthy, plus they play in a softer conference across the board. They just signed a HC people have been hyping up in every hiring cycle for the past few years. Adding Josh Green will give them improved depth. After re-signing Bridges will they have additional money to get a good MLE contributor for depth?

I would say Utah is probably better if they dont trade anyone off, but I dont think it's a given. A lot of this hinges on them bringing back Miles Bridges, which seems to be the most likely Bridges outcome. Also, we really have no idea how good this Charlotte team can be with a healthy Ball.

Detroit Pistons?
To me they are another bad team who can take a leap into competence fairly easily. Cade could be due for a huge year. They will bring back Simone. They signed Tobias Harris who fits perfectly. They brought in a vet like THJ. Could be a huge 3rd year for a guy like Duren. They signed a competent coach. Everything points towards them trying to win games to prove they arent pathetic. I think they a lower wins ceiling than a healthy Hornets, but given they play in a weak conference, I wouldnt be shocked if they are a high 20's win team.

Portland Trailblazers?
They traded for Deni Advija, a guy who was being hyped to all hell around these parts. They drafted Donovan Clingan, a guy who could be a dominant defensive rookie. They have Jerami Grant. They have Afernee Simons. Does Scoot take a 2nd year leap? Does Shaedon Sharpe take a 3rd year leap? Does Ayton play motivated not to lose his spot to a rookie? I would put them at an extremely low chance to be better than Utah given Billups doesnt seem competent to this point, but there is a non-zero chance they surprise people early before having to pull tanking moves.

Yeah, if the Jazz end up as the 7th or 8th worst team, it almost certainly means our young players are exceeding expectations, which would be fantastic.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Man.

"It will help us lose a few more games" is, from a sheer probability perspective, a really horrible reason to trade a player that apparently has a strong impact on winning, especially if he's a really young player.

If we lost a few more games in 2024, you know who that would have gotten us in the draft? Cody Williams.

Yeah, but the Jazz got lucky with that.