Does Lauri Get Traded?

[Handlogten's Heros]

Assign your own values. I don't think any of mine are outlandish, but I'm certainly not pretending it's NASA-certified. If anything, I think the last variable is probably too high, but whatever:

20%: Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
20%: The Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick.

20% x 79.8% x 20% = 3.2%

What about the impact of going from 4th/5th to 6th/7th and corresponding values. Just thought it was funny to keep voting 3% like it’s anything real. It’s not. I can pull numbers out of a hat and decide it’s more like 10-20% it provides no real value to enter that argument.

I’d also add the factor that many experts have touted the top of this draft as special. Even if you don’t believe it nba teams do… and even if you don’t draft at 4 or 5 and choose to trade back to 8/9 the premium next year will be astronomical… so there are enough other variables that anyone can subjectively layer in here to make matching your way to the right answer really just a subjective exercise.

Drafting in the top 5 is a priority next year, retaining an all star is a priority, if we can do both other stuff is less important. Get to those things as efficiently as possible. If you think Walker can be an all star then by all means be precious about keeping him.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Are we seriously doing this again for another day lol.

 

[Shocker00]

Odds for GSW getting Markkanen has almost doubled overnight. They went from +400 to +250 across various sportsbooks.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Are we seriously doing this again for another day lol.

There’s a 14.3% chance we do it all year.

 

[MTS]

What about the impact of going from 4th/5th to 6th/7th and corresponding values.

Then you increase the odds of Kessler being a difference and decrease the odds of it costing us drafting a superstar vs not.

Just thought it was funny to keep voting 3% like it’s anything real. It’s not. I can pull numbers out of a hat and decide it’s more like 10-20% it provides no real value to enter that argument.

If you think any of the variables are unreasonable, then we can discuss and modify. It seems relevant to start there, since the whole basis of the argument is us disagreeing on the impact trading Kessler will have on our odds to draft a superstar. I think it's really low and provided variables to support that line of thinking. You've said you think it's higher, and have provided no further support beyond that. So where do you think my assumptions are really off? Is it the 20% chance of Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst? We can increase that if you want. Is it the 20% of the Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick? Because, see next point:

I’d also add the factor that many experts have touted the top of this draft as special. Even if you don’t believe it nba teams do… and even if you don’t draft at 4 or 5 and choose to trade back to 8/9 the premium next year will be astronomical… so there are enough other variables that anyone can subjectively layer in here to make matching your way to the right answer really just a subjective exercise.

The odds of a specific team's top 5 pick resulting in a superstar in any given year are way lower than 20%. I made it 20% to overcompensate for this being a strong draft. I wanted to overshoot it to show that even if you do that, you're still getting a small final percentage.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Odds for GSW getting Markkanen has almost doubled overnight. They went from +400 to +250 across various sportsbooks.

Makes me wonder what the odds were for Cleveland to land Mitchell were two years ago?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Then you increase the odds of Kessler being a difference and decrease the odds of it costing us drafting a superstar vs not.


If you think any of the variables are unreasonable, then we can discuss and modify. It seems relevant to start there, since the whole basis of the argument is us disagreeing on the impact trading Kessler will have on our odds to draft a superstar. I think it's really low and provided variables to support that line of thinking. You've said you think it's higher, and have provided no further support beyond that. So where do you think my assumptions are really off? Is it the 20% chance of Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst? We can increase that if you want. Is it the 20% of the Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick? Because, see next point:


The odds of a specific team's top 5 pick resulting in a superstar in any given year are way lower than 20%. I made it 20% to overcompensate for this being a strong draft. I wanted to overshoot it to show that even if you do that, you're still getting a small final percentage.

I just have no desire to math this all out to come up with some number and I think the board has less desire to watch us do that. If you’d like to come up with some range you think is fine then go for it and I will stop being so glib. In the end we are talking about how you would weight certain factors in a trade. I wouldn’t settle for 50% of value for Walker just to lose more. I just think DA loses the forest for the trees sometimes in these convos and whether you get 110% of value or 90% matters less than the overall goals you need to accomplish. There are other reasons to trade Walker or Sexton and the timelines of their deals and raises means their value only increases if they play really well. I just think part of the issue is we let side quests distract us from doing the things that really matter. Walker is the guy that is easiest to move and most likely to get is close to or maybe excess value.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Are we seriously doing this again for another day lol.

It's gonna be an entire month until Lauri signs the extension so get use to it

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

My kings friends at the gym were super excited to talk to me about Lauri. Told them no
Keegan no Lauri… they were very sad.

 

[rocfan1]

Odds for GSW getting Markkanen has almost doubled overnight. They went from +400 to +250 across various sportsbooks.

I wonder why!? Someone is leaking something.

 

[HermanG]

I wonder why!? Someone is leaking something.

Action going to GSW so bookies drop their odds to avoid losing a ton of money if it happens.

Wont affect placed bets but future actions will payout less.

 

[sip]

And look I get all the “they say this draft is amazing… I’ve heard that before lol”. They aren’t perfect at predicting draft quality throughout the first round… but they are generally decent at declaring a good draft based on the strength at the top. Next year has one of the most bankable top 5s in recent memory. Could it be the Parker Wiggins draft? Yup but even that draft produced an MVP and the number 1 pick had enough value to allow Cleveland to trade for an all nba power forward. VJ edgecomb is like the 5th or 6th guy on most boards and is dominating at the Olympics as an 18 year old and looking like the best player on his team that is full of NBA players.

Completely agree. There are no guarantees but the top 5 of this draft purely on a prospect basis is impressive and we shouldn't screw around this year like we did the last 2. I think we can get into that position even if we keep Lauri but in that case I think we should trade Sexton to give ourselves a bit of a buffer. I'm more obsessed with the top of the 26 draft though which is my primary reason for wanting to move Lauri. I want the assets that he brings but more importantly it sets us up for a strong 2 year tank. Boozer and Dybansta would be the top pick in 25 in most likely if they were eligible and I think Caleb Wilson would be in the conversation as well.