Does Lauri Get Traded?

[HermanG]

Yes I should do a strawman homework report because you said something completely wrong. no. sorry.

The Hinkie guarantee is what I am completely opposed to here. If you paid attention to him you'd know how ridiculous that is. If you don't want to tank that's fine. Plenty of arguments against it. Stating that the man who took it further than any other person did and did so unapologetically wouldn't do it because a couple variables in the equation changed is ridiculous... sorry.

Everyone knows the successful tank jobs. Saying one variable or another isn't exactly the same so it invalidates the example is something I am not going to do. There are no two builds or rebuilds that are exactly alike. All the successful tanks hinge on delivering an all star talent to the tanker. All teams that tank can have that happen.

Btw Isnt it giving you pause that you'd have to do homework on this? I dont think you are one of the top advocates here, I just know you want to participate in these debates.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I didnt mean he wouldnt tank. I said he wouldnt min/max about it for the 14% odds at #1. Maybe that was unclear.

Also I didnt ask for a completely equal example. Just any one that is somewhat achievable.

He still would though. Go read about him. There would have been non utility to the extra wins. It wasn’t about number 1. It was about as high as possible.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Btw Isnt it giving you pause that you'd have to do homework on this? I dont think you are one of the top advocates here, I just know you want to participate in these debates.

The homework isn’t finding the examples. The homework is this long drawn out convo where you or any anti tanker goes “yeah but”. It’s exhausting. Tanking works. It’s not foolproof… nothing is.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I think what I will do instead is I will challenge all of you at the same time. You can go first, and @Handlogten's Heros and @stitches can help you all they want.

Dont chicken out.

Tell us how Jazz can implement a tank that is successful, by mirroring ANY historical tanking job as an example. Only rule is that our starting position and situation has to be better or equal to that teams.

Huh? You said Hinkie wouldn’t tank with negative (not null) evidence to support that.

 

[HermanG]

Huh? You said Hinkie wouldn’t tank with negative (not null) evidence to support that.

I didnt say he wouldnt tank. Thats just a silly way to misread my post since multiple teams tank each year including us two years in a row. Why wouldnt the tankiest GM ever do it?

I said he wouldnt do what he did, which is create a non-NBA level team to ensure best odds every year. The min/maxing was the point.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I didnt say he wouldnt tank. Thats just a silly way to misread my post since multiple teams tank each year including us two years in a row. Why wouldnt the tankiest GM ever do it?

I said he wouldnt do what he did, which is create a non-NBA level team to ensure best odds every year. The min/maxing was the point.

Zero people are saying we should create a g league team to make sure we are the worst. Hinkie still would have done what he did with current odds. Again go read about the guy.

 

[fishonjazz]

I didnt mean he wouldnt tank. I said he wouldnt min/max about it for the 14% odds at #1. Maybe that was unclear.

Also I didnt ask for a completely equal example. Just any one that is somewhat achievable.

Lauri gets injured. Jazz suck *** and get a top pick and draft a franchise player and top 10 player in NBA history. Lauri is healthy the following year. Jazz win multiple championships. The spurs model.

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[Handlogten's Heros]

Tanking, Rebuilding, and just being bad are all a little synonymous for me. The key is drafting high. We need to draft really high… that is the most reliable way for us to get all star talent. We should still try to do the other things to get all star talent but our own picks are the ones that are likely the highest picks. Those are critical. Keep Lauri… make sure you get a high pick or maximize the chances of getting a high pick this year. That’s what I’d do. The half assed route is fine for a bit but nothing meaningful has shaken loose… time to get serious.

 

[fishonjazz]

The OKC model. Trade a star (Paul George, Lauri) for picks and young talent. Young talent becomes an MVP caliber player. Picks become studs that fit well. Be contenders and a top team in the NBA for a while.

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[TheStormofWar]

The OKC model. Trade a star (Paul George, Lauri) for picks and young talent. Young talent becomes an MVP caliber player. Picks become studs that fit well. Be contenders and a top team in the NBA for a while.

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It's a bit more simple. Any veteran player or capspace that can get assets is a trading chip, draft well (I trust Ainge there), play your young players through their mistakes, and just shamelessly suck. If we're to follow this model, we must deal Lauri. Simple as.

 

[HermanG]

The homework isn’t finding the examples. The homework is this long drawn out convo where you or any anti tanker goes “yeah but”. It’s exhausting. Tanking works. It’s not foolproof… nothing is.

You always chip in with these which sort of suggests you want to discuss them. I didnt quote/tag you here first.

Im not in the same "right and wrong" mindset with this topic anymore than I was a few years ago. There is no foolproof plan either way.

But tanking is definitely not as good a plan as the half the guys on this board claim. Most of the teams that blow up to become bad stay bad for a long time before they land a guy who they think is "him"... and when they finally do they may never be able to build the team up to actually win a chip before that guy bolts.

Let me ask you this. Just give me a gut feeling answer: How many of the top 3 picks who became all NBA level guys won a chip for the franchise who drafted them? How many of them left and then won elsewhere? Which number is higher?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's bit more simple. Any veteran player or capspace that can get assets is a trading chip, draft well (I trust Ainge there), play your young players through their mistakes, and just shamelessly suck. If we're to follow this model, we must deal Lauri. Simple as.

I don't think we have to trade Lauri but we need to trade a couple more vets. The easiest way to tank is to move Lauri though and it obviously yields a "haul". I think unlike some years in the past there are less teams that will enter the tank race because they are all in on winning or don't own their own picks or are close enough to the play-in etc. I think it may cost Kessler or Sexton... maybe both? I think I'd try to retain Lauri unless there is a crazy offer out there.

 

[HermanG]

Tanking, Rebuilding, and just being bad are all a little synonymous for me. The key is drafting high. We need to draft really high… that is the most reliable way for us to get all star talent. We should still try to do the other things to get all star talent but our own picks are the ones that are likely the highest picks. Those are critical. Keep Lauri… make sure you get a high pick or maximize the chances of getting a high pick this year. That’s what I’d do. The half assed route is fine for a bit but nothing meaningful has shaken loose… time to get serious.

I agree but even more so, drafting high ceiling guys. Cody and Collier were perfect picks for us as they are sort of boom or bust guys. We dont need them all to boom, as long as one booms enough.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I am excited that it looks like we'll be keeping him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You always chip in with these which sort of suggests you want to discuss them. I didnt quote/tag you here first.

Im not in the same "right and wrong" mindset with this topic anymore than I was a few years ago. There is no foolproof plan either way.

But tanking is definitely not as good a plan as the half the guys on this board claim. Most of the teams that blow up to become bad stay bad for a long time before they land a guy who they think is "him"... and when they finally do they may never be able to build the team up to actually win a chip before that guy bolts.

Let me ask you this. Just give me a gut feeling answer: How many of the top 3 picks who became all NBA level guys won a chip for the franchise who drafted them? How many of them left and then won elsewhere? Which number is higher?

These are the type of qualifiers that make the conversation exhausting. I chip in because when I see something incorrect I will mention it. I have had exhaustive conversations with people on this board about the subject. I know what they will do... like put restrictive qualifiers on how the conversation should be considered a success. Duncan, Robinson, Tatum, Lebron, Kyrie... but success can be more than winning a title. The picks don't have to stop at top 3 when talking about tanking. And what is the point... you saying we should build through FA? Assemble a super team? That we should draft an MVP at 15 or in the second round? Guess what... because we own other teams picks we can do all those things with tanking.

 

[JimLes]

Sure buddy. His list has Morant, Zion and Jaylen yet Kyrie, Trae, KAT and Beal couldn't be in the conversation. That is just stupid. By the way you should actually do a little research before talking **** and saying guys aren't even all nba types. Kyrie had been all nba 2nd team once and third team twice. KAT has been all nba third team twice. Trae has been all nba 3rd team once. Beal had been all nba 3rd team once.

None of those players are ATGs. Some of them won't even be HOFers. Oooh, Trae made a single All-NBA team. Put up right up there with Jokić and Curry.

But sure, I'll bite. Let's see how you're not trolling. Build a team around Beal of players who aren't better than him that would win a title. Let's see what you come up with.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'd be working to keep Lauri and tank... which means I'd be trying to move Sexton, Kessler, JC X 2... create maximum cap flexibility for a big splash next year. Hope to catch lightening in a bottle and get a high pick, maybe one of the young guys "pops", and you also have cap space to make some win-now type signings to bolster the team. If things aren't working you can pivot and trade Lauri at the draft.

One thing I think we will have to do though is compromise a bit on trade value. I don't want to do that with Lauri... but we will have to have flexibility to get some deals done over the next 12 months. Including like pick/rookie consolidation at some point.

 

[David Stern]

I am excited that it looks like we'll be keeping him.

I don’t think that’s anywhere close to guaranteed until August 6th

 

[HermanG]

These are the type of qualifiers that make the conversation exhausting. I chip in because when I see something incorrect I will mention it. I have had exhaustive conversations with people on this board about the subject. I know what they will do... like put restrictive qualifiers on how the conversation should be considered a success. Duncan, Robinson, Tatum, Lebron, Kyrie... but success can be more than winning a title. The picks don't have to stop at top 3 when talking about tanking. And what is the point... you saying we should build through FA? Assemble a super team? That we should draft an MVP at 15 or in the second round? Guess what... because we own other teams picks we can do all those things with tanking.

Im not teying to set qualifiers at all. You think I'm anti-tanking but I'm not. I'm anti-"blow it up to pieces to get the best odds".

The point is not that we must build through FA. Its just that there is a misconception among many that to get MVP-level guy you must tank and do it "properly". Im sure you can see how commonly that is referred here?

The flat lottery AND the fact those guys get drafted outside of top 5 is the reason why tanking is not must.

The cost is always there: the worse you perform the more your roster bleeds value.

 

[footawn]

Words