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Donovan refuses to say whether or not he wants to be in Utah moving forward

Handlogten's Heros said:
Only stay down until the young talent pulls you up… been clear on that… teams get in trouble cutting off their future assets for a good player that doesn’t have the same timeline or limits their ceiling… the Kings are masters of this.

You are exaggerating the chance that one of the guys we get in a win now trad will become a corner piece… John Collins is a prime example… hasn’t really shown he’s anything more than a good starter but he dunks real good and had a solid playoff so he’s viewed as having some great upside. He plays with a guy who is a much better passer than anyone on or projected to be on our roster… it’s more likely he has less value than more in a year… just by being the same player his value declines because that wishful thinking upside shrinks.

You are also really downplaying the chance that Donovan’s value declines and maybe it takes a catastrophic decline. What are the chances he has a year long injury at some point in the season? I’d say like 3-5% on the low end… and his value goes down in half? More probably.

There is also the chance he has a similar season to this year… but that we win a whole lot less and the view becomes he’s an “empty calorie” guy. That he’s Zach Lavine before he started winning a little. There are also starting to be some rumors/smoke that he is a handful off the court… take it for what it’s worth and a lot of guys are a handful.

He also has gotten slightly better each year… what if his shooting dips a bit in a new system under a new coach… now what.

I simplify my approach with a one liner “ trade both or trade neither” but there are caveats to that of course. I think they are likely trading Rudy almost no matter what… we are in a bit of a corner and that seems to be where this is headed. If we do that and then can get a 100% of what we can get next year for Donovan I’d likely do it… I believe the extra year on the deal does matter… the view he still hasn’t tapped his full potential is baked in to his current value and will disappear when he is essentially the same player on a less good team… so I think we actually could find we will get 110% or 120% in value and may get a godfather 150% type offer.

I think some of these huge draft pick offers are also going to start looking quite bad for the teams that traded the picks and teams will get gunshy doing those types of deals… NO deal for AD is starting to look pretty bad for the Lakers (even though the got a title). Clips deal for PG starts to look worse and worse as those close picks were supposed to be late 20s and they already will get a lotto pick… the Brooklyn picks now look like they could be much more juicy than originally anticipated… nba trade value of picks seems to shift like crazy… used to be over valued and never change hands… now teams will give away their control of their draft picks for 5+ years if they think they have an okay shot at getting in the title contention mix. Maybe those views don’t change…

So there are a lot of things that can bother the downside that you are dismissing… it’s similar to the black swan theory on the economy… you can’t pinpoint the one thing that will cause a crash and their individual chances are low but collectively they add up to be real… and just cause you can’t see the black swan doesn’t mean it’s not there… if conditions are right anyone of these “outlier” issues hits and your return. The downside risk is so much more likely than the upside opportunity.

The info gathering on new young players is also more likely in a scenario where we aren’t trying to maximize wins… it isn’t dependent on Donovan… if we trade Donovan then traded for Collins he’d likely have more opportunities to increase his value and numbers as well.

I’m good here… my view is it’s better to move on from both or keep ‘em both and build that way… I think it has a lot of merit. You want to keep Donovan and wait a year… fine.
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You can say I'm exaggerating the chance, I can just as easily say you're downplaying that chance while also heavily exaggerating the chance that Don's value goes down. This is really the crux of the discussion. It is important that we trade Donovan now or later, and what are the implications of either decision.

As to your black swan theory, I could literally apply that to other side of the argument. You can't pinpoint the one thing that will result in success by not trading Don this summer. There are several different ways it could turn out to be a positive which are all individually unlikely but collectively add up to be real. And just because you can't see them or don't believe in those chances, it doesn't make them impossible. The upside opportunity is so much more likely than the downside risk. As I'm sure you know, the way to handle unlikely outcomes isn't to try to predict or cede to those outcomes. Don't liquidate your portfolio the market could crash, but also don't sell it all to buy an NFT because it could make you rich. Instead, you become more robust and capable of withstanding poor outcomes while also still reaping the benefits of positive outcomes. IMO, keeping Donovan opens up more doors for positive outcomes without introducing much risk. Additionally, having urgency to trade Donovan introduces risk without much benefit. There are many ways waiting could be beneficial. Whether that's someone like Collins having a breakout, drafting the next Don or Rudy, or simply getting a better deal by being patient and hardballing the other teams. That's way more real to me than the scenario where Don's value hits the tank.

I think you only trade him in the scenario where you get the godfather offer. Even if Don demanded a trade on live TV, I don't think we'd necessarily receive the best offer right away. As time passes, teams get more desperate and will eventually cave into higher demands. We've seen many trade demands play out, and waiting it out has worked out positively for the selling team from my perspective. I don't really believe that the best offer is likely to be available right away....but if that's what you believe fine. I just don't believe you should make that decision because you wanted to tank faster. If you don't have the patience in a potential Don trade and put the priority on tanking quicker instead I think you've backed yourself into a corner and shut the door on several positive outcomes. With the massive disappointment from large expectations I truly do empathize with those who just want to burn it all down right away. It's easy to get ahead of yourself. After 20 games, just about any team who is even slightly underperforming will have the "we should just tank" discussion going on. But I do think having a more measured response is better for getting back to contender status.
 
oneye said:
I will adamantly want the douche off my team, until the douche is off my team. Play defense, and shoot better than 20% from 3 as the franchise “super star” then tell me about how much you want to win. If you can’t do that, no one wants to hear your sob story or see you pitying yourself.
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Creepy.
 
I would also add that the "trade Rudy, trade Don" thought process isn't a real option. While I don't believe TJ that Mitchell is most likely player to remain on roster (because he could demand out), I do think Mitchell is the player the Jazz FO wants back the most and I'm also very confident in that. If the Jazz trade Rudy at Don's request, the likelihood that they are willing to still trade Don if he wants to be hear is zero. Can't see it happening at all.

If the Jazz are willing to trade Mitchell even if Mitchell wants to be here, I think the more interesting and relevant question is what they do with Rudy. Unlike Don, I do think Rudy is a depreciating asset and he's also unlikely to get fair value on the trade market. If the Jazz are willing to put Mitchell on the table, I'm actually fond of the idea of trading Mitchell for the right win now player and giving it another run with Rudy+different coach+more balanced roster. If Dame were available, for example, I would trade Don for him and give it hell. The opportunity to have two players of that caliber is just so rare.
 
Sean said:
The point is I'm starting to think Don rejected your sexual advances and you've never gotten over it.

You're creepy af dude.
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We're 100% going to see oneye fulfill the creep arc by the time next season rolls around and Donovan is still on the team. Going to end up with a restraining order then put in jail a week later for breaking said restraining order
 
KqWIN said:
You can say I'm exaggerating the chance, I can just as easily say you're downplaying that chance while also heavily exaggerating the chance that Don's value goes down. This is really the crux of the discussion. It is important that we trade Donovan now or later, and what are the implications of either decision.

As to your black swan theory, I could literally apply that to other side of the argument. You can't pinpoint the one thing that will result in success by not trading Don this summer. There are several different ways it could turn out to be a positive which are all individually unlikely but collectively add up to be real. And just because you can't see them or don't believe in those chances, it doesn't make them impossible. The upside opportunity is so much more likely than the downside risk. As I'm sure you know, the way to handle unlikely outcomes isn't to try to predict or cede to those outcomes. Don't liquidate your portfolio the market could crash, but also don't sell it all to buy an NFT because it could make you rich. Instead, you become more robust and capable of withstanding poor outcomes while also still reaping the benefits of positive outcomes. IMO, keeping Donovan opens up more doors for positive outcomes without introducing much risk. Additionally, having urgency to trade Donovan introduces risk without much benefit. There are many ways waiting could be beneficial. Whether that's someone like Collins having a breakout, drafting the next Don or Rudy, or simply getting a better deal by being patient and hardballing the other teams. That's way more real to me than the scenario where Don's value hits the tank.

I think you only trade him in the scenario where you get the godfather offer. Even if Don demanded a trade on live TV, I don't think we'd necessarily receive the best offer right away. As time passes, teams get more desperate and will eventually cave into higher demands. We've seen many trade demands play out, and waiting it out has worked out positively for the selling team from my perspective. I don't really believe that the best offer is likely to be available right away....but if that's what you believe fine. I just don't believe you should make that decision because you wanted to tank faster. If you don't have the patience in a potential Don trade and put the priority on tanking quicker instead I think you've backed yourself into a corner and shut the door on several positive outcomes. With the massive disappointment from large expectations I truly do empathize with those who just want to burn it all down right away. It's easy to get ahead of yourself. After 20 games, just about any team who is even slightly underperforming will have the "we should just tank" discussion going on. But I do think having a more measured response is better for getting back to contender status.
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Black swan was meant to evaluate catastrophic failure potential… if there is a 10% chance Donovan plays better and has more trade value and a 10% risk he sustains a major injury… the return on those percentages is not the same… you could lose the whole thing.

If you want to live in lala land where we trade this enormously valuable player that you say will make Atlanta way better than they are now and recoup that value and more while also trading on our aging core players for younger different versions (something we’ve kinda been trying to do already without success) then by all means go ahead.

I’m not exaggerating… I gave a pretty optimistic scenario and you said you still didn’t think Donovan would stay under that scenario.

If we go the keep Donovan route every trade we make will be to make Don happy… that’s not hypothetical that is reality. It will be tough to move Rudy and also improve the roster given the absence of other assets and limitations we are self imposing. Every is pointing to Atlanta… what if they saw our struggles and take their assets elsewhere… you’ve said they have a lot of different combinations of players and contracts… that means they are pretty flexible… they don’t have to deal with us. In our make believe scenarios let’s say they don’t value Rudy like you and I do and won’t go higher than Clint and Collins… then what? Meanwhile Donovan hears you had a chance to get his buddy and passed…

Trade Rudy in conference to GS, Dallas, or Memphis? Well that is gonna really make Donovan happy… so now it’s what Toronto and Charlotte?

Anyway… it’s not going to be easy and might not even be possible to trade Rudy and get equal win now pieces… you go ahead and bet on the upside that something magic happens. The next 12 months with Donovan calling shots will be so fun… hopefully he doesn’t bring us Westbrook like GM Lebron did… I’m sure he will stick around and help with all the collateral damage that can come from giving a player too much say in what the franchise does.
 
The great news is @KqWIN is we will absolutely get to see your scenario play out and experience it because Ryan doesn’t have the guts to blow it up in the same year we host the AS game.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Black swan was meant to evaluate catastrophic failure potential… if there is a 10% chance Donovan plays better and has more trade value and a 10% risk he sustains a major injury… the return on those percentages is not the same… you could lose the whole thing.

If you want to live in lala land where we trade this enormously valuable player that you say will make Atlanta way better than they are now and recoup that value and more while also trading on our aging core players for younger different versions (something we’ve kinda been trying to do already without success) then by all means go ahead.

I’m not exaggerating… I gave a pretty optimistic scenario and you said you still didn’t think Donovan would stay under that scenario.

If we go the keep Donovan route every trade we make will be to make Don happy… that’s not hypothetical that is reality. It will be tough to move Rudy and also improve the roster given the absence of other assets and limitations we are self imposing. Every is pointing to Atlanta… what if they saw our struggles and take their assets elsewhere… you’ve said they have a lot of different combinations of players and contracts… that means they are pretty flexible… they don’t have to deal with us. In our make believe scenarios let’s say they don’t value Rudy like you and I do and won’t go higher than Clint and Collins… then what? Meanwhile Donovan hears you had a chance to get his buddy and passed…

Trade Rudy in conference to GS, Dallas, or Memphis? Well that is gonna really make Donovan happy… so now it’s what Toronto and Charlotte?

Anyway… it’s not going to be easy and might not even be possible to trade Rudy and get equal win now pieces… you go ahead and bet on the upside that something magic happens. The next 12 months with Donovan calling shots will be so fun… hopefully he doesn’t bring us Westbrook like GM Lebron did… I’m sure he will stick around and help with all the collateral damage that can come from giving a player too much say in what the franchise does.
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Those percentages are not 10% and 10%. It's about where those percentages lie, and obviously we have different opinions on that. If you really think those are the percentages, I don't know what to tell you. If you're just being hyperbolic, there's no reason to talk about it.

There's also "catastrophic failure" on both ends. If the Jazz had followed this logic and traded Rudy immediately, they would have robbed themselves of a golden championship window. The point is to become a championship contender, not to acquire picks. You think the scenario where we improve is la la land, well I think the "catastrophic failure" where Donovan has an injury so bad it nukes his value is la la land given how unlikely it is. Is there something I don't know? Does he have a degenerative knee condition like Oladipo? I would not operate my franchise under the fear that any player could have a catastrophic injury out of the blue.

This Rudy trade discussion package isn't too relevant to the Donovan decision. I don't think you made a decision on Don because of what you get for Rudy. You could go any which way you want with Rudy. If he has no value at all and we literally cannot get a single pick for him, I think it's still sound to be patient with Don. If you don't think Rudy can get much, it's not like we can still get a ton of picks either. Getting a cornerstone piece from Rudy is certainly not the only reason why waiting can be beneficial or things can work out in our favor. Teams have waited out public trade demands and gotten what they wanted. The Jazz got nothing from Hayward and it worked out. There are many ways waiting can be beneficial, and the risk of Don's value dropping is low enough I'd be content to wait it out myself.

Of course I don't want Don to LeGM the franchise into obscurity. I do think you're suspicion is true that Don will be given too much power, but if we're talking about realistic scenarios, we shouldn't even be discussing the possibility of trading Donovan if he wants to stay. I'm of the opinion that having Don is a stronger position than not having him. If I was making the decisions, that's what I'd want to do. I'd be patient with the trade and I'd have no problem waiting to tank. In real life, where we're talking about Smith-Wade-Ainge as lead decision makers....yeah I can see how that could turn toxic as they bend the franchise to Don. Bending the franchise to Don is obviously not what I want, even if it is reality. I don't want to trade Gobert, but that is reality.

If you're frustrated about the upcoming decisions that are likely to be made, I hear ya. The first of those decisions is that we're trading Rudy Gobert just because Don wants to, which is really damaging for the franchise. This discussion about moving Don even if Don wants to be here (and after you already traded Rudy for him) relies on having some sort of control of the follow up decisions. It's a made up scenario, not based in reality and isn't something that will even be discussed, but it is an interesting conversation. I don't think my scenario will play out, because as you mentioned, the franchise will likely make rash moves to please Donovan. My desire, or lack thereof, to trade Don immediately is not based around pleasing him and convincing him to stay here forever. I don't think Donovan would stay long term with Utah if we won the title. His personality is what it is, and I can't see it. I don't think that belief means we must trade him now. While the real Jazz will likely make moves in the mindset to keep Don, I would be patient with the trade and not be in a hurry to tank simply because I think it's better asset management and team building.
 
KqWIN said:
Those percentages are not 10% and 10%. It's about where those percentages lie, and obviously we have different opinions on that. If you really think those are the percentages, I don't know what to tell you. If you're just being hyperbolic, there's no reason to talk about it.

There's also "catastrophic failure" on both ends. If the Jazz had followed this logic and traded Rudy immediately, they would have robbed themselves of a golden championship window. The point is to become a championship contender, not to acquire picks. You think the scenario where we improve is la la land, well I think the "catastrophic failure" where Donovan has an injury so bad it nukes his value is la la land given how unlikely it is. Is there something I don't know? Does he have a degenerative knee condition like Oladipo? I would not operate my franchise under the fear that any player could have a catastrophic injury out of the blue.

This Rudy trade discussion package isn't too relevant to the Donovan decision. I don't think you made a decision on Don because of what you get for Rudy. You could go any which way you want with Rudy. If he has no value at all and we literally cannot get a single pick for him, I think it's still sound to be patient with Don. If you don't think Rudy can get much, it's not like we can still get a ton of picks either. Getting a cornerstone piece from Rudy is certainly not the only reason why waiting can be beneficial or things can work out in our favor. Teams have waited out public trade demands and gotten what they wanted. The Jazz got nothing from Hayward and it worked out. There are many ways waiting can be beneficial, and the risk of Don's value dropping is low enough I'd be content to wait it out myself.

Of course I don't want Don to LeGM the franchise into obscurity. I do think you're suspicion is true that Don will be given too much power, but if we're talking about realistic scenarios, we shouldn't even be discussing the possibility of trading Donovan if he wants to stay. I'm of the opinion that having Don is a stronger position than not having him. If I was making the decisions, that's what I'd want to do. I'd be patient with the trade and I'd have no problem waiting to tank. In real life, where we're talking about Smith-Wade-Ainge as lead decision makers....yeah I can see how that could turn toxic as they bend the franchise to Don. Bending the franchise to Don is obviously not what I want, even if it is reality. I don't want to trade Gobert, but that is reality.

If you're frustrated about the upcoming decisions that are likely to be made, I hear ya. The first of those decisions is that we're trading Rudy Gobert just because Don wants to, which is really damaging for the franchise. This discussion about moving Don even if Don wants to be here (and after you already traded Rudy for him) relies on having some sort of control of the follow up decisions. It's a made up scenario, not based in reality and isn't something that will even be discussed, but it is an interesting conversation. I don't think my scenario will play out, because as you mentioned, the franchise will likely make rash moves to please Donovan. My desire, or lack thereof, to trade Don immediately is not based around pleasing him and convincing him to stay here forever. I don't think Donovan would stay long term with Utah if we won the title. His personality is what it is, and I can't see it. I don't think that belief means we must trade him now. While the real Jazz will likely make moves in the mindset to keep Don, I would be patient with the trade and not be in a hurry to tank simply because I think it's better asset management and team building.
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The 10% was a placeholder number… any assigned percentage is completely subjective guesswork… but in one scenario you get almost a total loss and in the other you get a slight bump up.

The Rudy scenario is not comparable at all. We always knew where Rudy stood… he said he wanted to be here… he was willing to be coached hard and wasn’t trying to gain power in the organization. We had every reason to believe he would stay long term if we made reasonable progress. With Donovan we could make great progress and still have him bounce… basically I think you have to make the western conference finals to have a chance… I have no reason to believe we are anywhere near that after the Rudy trade.

If you think we shouldn’t consider trading Donovan as realistic then keeping him and making sound moves for the franchise is equally unrealistic… Royce was off the trade block this deadline for fear of pissing off donovan… Rudy is on the trade block… so does it sound like we are gonna make good moves? Every move will be with Donovan in mind… if we are talking unrealistic scenarios I prefer the one where we move everyone… it’s much better than what is coming.
 
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