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Draft reform vote coming up

So they flattened the curve. Bottom 6 teams with basically the same chance at #1. I think this makes sense.

I wonder what the respective teams' chances are for the #2 an #3 pick.

And does the lottery decide more than just the first 3 picks?
 
Hack said:
I kinda agree with this. Problem is, that for a Jazz fan it's better for us the new way. The Jazz aren't ever just going to go into full tank mode. Last year they were seriously still trying to win games even when it made no sense.

I don't think Jazz management is going to change, and we are probably always going to better than the 5 worst teams, so this makes more sense for us and is better for us
Click to expand...

If the canned max contracts yet maintain a firm cap it would come down to management and a franchise's front office not just the draft. Killing max contracts would be great for every team that's not a glamour franchise.
 
I think it would make the draft more interesting for more people. Good marketing.

I wonder what it would do to the value of picks in trades?
 
vegas said:
I think it would make the draft more interesting for more people. Good marketing.

I wonder what it would do to the value of picks in trades?
Click to expand...

Good question. Probably means picks will be top-7 protected in trades going forward instead of top-3.
 
They also said that they are thinking of having 15 minutes between each pick so that trades can happen in real time. This would make the draft like 6 more hours... but I'd like seeing the players get the team's hat that they are actually going to.
 
Enes CanTear You Apart said:
https://watch.nba.com/nba/video/channels/draft/2014/05/20/052014-draft-lottery-behind-the-scenes.nba

OK, I'm kinda convinced, not 100%(any smart person with an engineer mind/education could find ways to rig it) but it's good enough. Still, why is it not live though? I don't agree on the boring part. Add a few fun elements to it that the lottery announcement show has and it's almost exactly what I want to see on the TV. And wouldn't it help the myth to die at least?

Plus, it's still really really hard to believe that it's entirely clean, especially after the Cavs' recent run. 0.0074256% chance of getting the first picks three years in a row and it just happens.
Click to expand...
If they are going to rig the draft, why would they rig it in favor of Cleveland... again and again. It just doesn't make sense.

As for the infinitesimal chance you listed, virtually any combination of three outcomes would have been extremely unlikely as well. In other words, had a completely different scenario played out you could have made this exact same argument saying that the chances of the last three or four drafts turning out the way they did was nearly impossible. It is technically true, but it is a fallacious way to use statistics because the fact is that some infinitesimally tiny outcome had to occur.
 
Doublea said:
They also said that they are thinking of having 15 minutes between each pick so that trades can happen in real time. This would make the draft like 6 more hours... but I'd like seeing the players get the team's hat that they are actually going to.
Click to expand...

This is a very good idea also.
 
I like it, but the one thing I do not like is that there is still no incentive to be mediocre. It is still either terrible or great. I think the teams on the cusp of the playoffs should have a little better chance at moving up, maybe make the reward for trying to be bad a little less, and give some to the teams who are trying to be competitive.
 
I like this system. I think it's better for the NBA as a whole, and better for the Jazz for reasons people already said.
 
I have to agree with others. This is much better than the wheel and the current lottery. I don't like the 15 minutes between picks idea. I don't want to sit there and wait 15 minutes in between picks. JMO
 
As long as it's not the wheel, I will be happy. The wheel is one of the worst ideas I have ever heard, and anyone who likes it will stop liking it the moment a team that just won a title gets gifted a superstar.
 
If I didn't make any mistakes, here are the probabilities under the proposed system (assuming Zach Lowe's info is correct):

[TABLE="width: 659, align: left"]
[TR]
[TD]Pick\Standing [/TD]
[TD]30(1)[/TD]
[TD]29(2)[/TD]
[TD]28(3)[/TD]
[TD]27(4)[/TD]
[TD]26(5)[/TD]
[TD]25(6)[/TD]
[TD]24(7)[/TD]
[TD]23(8)[/TD]
[TD]22(9)[/TD]
[TD]21(10)[/TD]
[TD]20(11)[/TD]
[TD]19(12)[/TD]
[TD]18(13)[/TD]
[TD]17(14)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.12[/TD]
[TD]0.115[/TD]
[TD]0.1[/TD]
[TD]0.085[/TD]
[TD]0.07[/TD]
[TD]0.055[/TD]
[TD]0.04[/TD]
[TD]0.025[/TD]
[TD]0.015[/TD]
[TD]0.01[/TD]
[TD]0.005[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1169[/TD]
[TD]0.1128[/TD]
[TD]0.0999[/TD]
[TD]0.0865[/TD]
[TD]0.0725[/TD]
[TD]0.0579[/TD]
[TD]0.0428[/TD]
[TD]0.0271[/TD]
[TD]0.0164[/TD]
[TD]0.011[/TD]
[TD]0.0055[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1133[/TD]
[TD]0.1101[/TD]
[TD]0.0997[/TD]
[TD]0.0881[/TD]
[TD]0.0752[/TD]
[TD]0.0612[/TD]
[TD]0.046[/TD]
[TD]0.0297[/TD]
[TD]0.0182[/TD]
[TD]0.0122[/TD]
[TD]0.0062[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1092[/TD]
[TD]0.1069[/TD]
[TD]0.0992[/TD]
[TD]0.0897[/TD]
[TD]0.0784[/TD]
[TD]0.0652[/TD]
[TD]0.05[/TD]
[TD]0.0328[/TD]
[TD]0.0203[/TD]
[TD]0.0138[/TD]
[TD]0.007[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.1042[/TD]
[TD]0.103[/TD]
[TD]0.0983[/TD]
[TD]0.0914[/TD]
[TD]0.082[/TD]
[TD]0.0699[/TD]
[TD]0.0549[/TD]
[TD]0.0368[/TD]
[TD]0.0231[/TD]
[TD]0.0158[/TD]
[TD]0.0081[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0981[/TD]
[TD]0.0968[/TD]
[TD]0.093[/TD]
[TD]0.0861[/TD]
[TD]0.0757[/TD]
[TD]0.0611[/TD]
[TD]0.0421[/TD]
[TD]0.0268[/TD]
[TD]0.0184[/TD]
[TD]0.0095[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0.3383[/TD]
[TD]0.2436[/TD]
[TD]0.1696[/TD]
[TD]0.1131[/TD]
[TD]0.0737[/TD]
[TD]0.0445[/TD]
[TD]0.0172[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0948[/TD]
[TD]0.1479[/TD]
[TD]0.1695[/TD]
[TD]0.1759[/TD]
[TD]0.178[/TD]
[TD]0.15[/TD]
[TD]0.0838[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0208[/TD]
[TD]0.0524[/TD]
[TD]0.0915[/TD]
[TD]0.1473[/TD]
[TD]0.2113[/TD]
[TD]0.2578[/TD]
[TD]0.219[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0033[/TD]
[TD]0.0126[/TD]
[TD]0.034[/TD]
[TD]0.0787[/TD]
[TD]0.1634[/TD]
[TD]0.2988[/TD]
[TD]0.4092[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0004[/TD]
[TD]0.0022[/TD]
[TD]0.0087[/TD]
[TD]0.0292[/TD]
[TD]0.0897[/TD]
[TD]0.2584[/TD]
[TD]0.6114[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0003[/TD]
[TD]0.0015[/TD]
[TD]0.0076[/TD]
[TD]0.0363[/TD]
[TD]0.1834[/TD]
[TD]0.7708[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0002[/TD]
[TD]0.0013[/TD]
[TD]0.0115[/TD]
[TD]0.107[/TD]
[TD]0.88[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0001[/TD]
[TD]0.0023[/TD]
[TD]0.0388[/TD]
[TD]0.9588[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]






















Here are the probabilities under the current (old) system:

[TABLE="width: 822"]
[TR]
[TD]Pick\Standing[/TD]
[TD]30(1)[/TD]
[TD]29(2)[/TD]
[TD]28(3)[/TD]
[TD]27(4)[/TD]
[TD]26(5)[/TD]
[TD]25(6)[/TD]
[TD]24(7)[/TD]
[TD]23(8)[/TD]
[TD]22(9)[/TD]
[TD]21(10)[/TD]
[TD]20(11)[/TD]
[TD]19(12)[/TD]
[TD]18(13)[/TD]
[TD]17(14)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0.25[/TD]
[TD]0.199[/TD]
[TD]0.156[/TD]
[TD]0.119[/TD]
[TD]0.088[/TD]
[TD]0.063[/TD]
[TD]0.043[/TD]
[TD]0.028[/TD]
[TD]0.017[/TD]
[TD]0.011[/TD]
[TD]0.008[/TD]
[TD]0.007[/TD]
[TD]0.006[/TD]
[TD]0.005[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0.2151[/TD]
[TD]0.1881[/TD]
[TD]0.1574[/TD]
[TD]0.126[/TD]
[TD]0.0966[/TD]
[TD]0.071[/TD]
[TD]0.0494[/TD]
[TD]0.0326[/TD]
[TD]0.02[/TD]
[TD]0.013[/TD]
[TD]0.0095[/TD]
[TD]0.0083[/TD]
[TD]0.0071[/TD]
[TD]0.0059[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0.1777[/TD]
[TD]0.1712[/TD]
[TD]0.1559[/TD]
[TD]0.133[/TD]
[TD]0.1068[/TD]
[TD]0.0812[/TD]
[TD]0.0579[/TD]
[TD]0.0389[/TD]
[TD]0.0241[/TD]
[TD]0.0158[/TD]
[TD]0.0115[/TD]
[TD]0.0101[/TD]
[TD]0.0087[/TD]
[TD]0.0073[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0.3572[/TD]
[TD]0.3186[/TD]
[TD]0.2257[/TD]
[TD]0.0985[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.1231[/TD]
[TD]0.2648[/TD]
[TD]0.3507[/TD]
[TD]0.2615[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0403[/TD]
[TD]0.1603[/TD]
[TD]0.3599[/TD]
[TD]0.4395[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0125[/TD]
[TD]0.0836[/TD]
[TD]0.3047[/TD]
[TD]0.5993[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0037[/TD]
[TD]0.0397[/TD]
[TD]0.2322[/TD]
[TD]0.7244[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.001[/TD]
[TD]0.0179[/TD]
[TD]0.1679[/TD]
[TD]0.8131[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0003[/TD]
[TD]0.0081[/TD]
[TD]0.122[/TD]
[TD]0.8697[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0.0001[/TD]
[TD]0.0038[/TD]
[TD]0.0888[/TD]
[TD]0.9074[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0018[/TD]
[TD]0.0628[/TD]
[TD]0.9353[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0008[/TD]
[TD]0.039[/TD]
[TD]0.9602[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0*[/TD]
[TD]0.0002[/TD]
[TD]0.018[/TD]
[TD]0.9818[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Note: Entries labeled 0* represent positive probabilities, rounded to .0000.
 
Last edited:
Re 15 min: it works if there is action, but for picks that stay, 15 min is a lot of time for some announcer to fill while waiting for a trade. If they could give some incentive to teams to decline the 15 min, so that unless a trade was likely, they wouldn't waste the time. Only trouble is you don't send a vote of confidence to your new draft pick if a trade doesn't work out.
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
As for the infinitesimal chance you listed, virtually any combination of three outcomes would have been extremely unlikely as well. In other words, had a completely different scenario played out you could have made this exact same argument saying that the chances of the last three or four drafts turning out the way they did was nearly impossible. It is technically true, but it is a fallacious way to use statistics because the fact is that some infinitesimally tiny outcome had to occur.
Click to expand...

One Brow said:
Wildly improbable things happen every day.
Click to expand...
Guys, I know, it can happen. But, it IS hard to believe. Like it's hard to believe that you could win the lottery.
 
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