Election Prediction Thread

[gandalfe]

In my experience, Jewish culture is probably the most literate and educated of any I have interacted with -- it doesn't mean there aren't people who are Jewish who are not literate, just as there are some African-Americans who are not good athletes, everyone is different, everyone has their talents. It's just that Jewish families put a premium on education and being very literate, more so than other cultures in the U.S. It doesn't necessarily mean they are more intelligent. I can't include Asian cultures because I don't have enough experience to compare. DJ is a lunatic, an outlier in my experience. He equates governments that called themselves socialist with real socialism, governments that were totalitarian and severely punished those who didn't comply with the rules, governments that broke all the rules of basic human decency. Real socialism is democratic; it looks to the needs of the people, all the people, and not those of a select group as the so-called socialist governments DJ talks about. Capitalism is by nature, opportunistic, seeking advantages to advance the goals of individuals over the group, or an organization over others no matter the consequences to the others. In its pure form, it's ruthless competition, which is what is happening now around the world because of the lack of government regulation. You could say we do that in competitive sports, but in sports, it is different. No one dies, goes hungry or homeless, doesn't get healthcare, is treated as subhuman or killed because of their race. It's healthy competition. In the rat race of capitalism, it doesn't matter what happens to your opponent, there is no ethics or compassion -- the bottom line rules, is the dictator. Marx was right, unregulated capitalism leads to monopolies and what most people don't understand, Marx said it would work only in the most advanced, industrial nations, not agriculturally-based nations like Russia was, or third-world countries with small industrial bases because they can't supply enough production to meet the needs of their populations. I think the model of regulated capitalism is a good compromise between the systems and is what our nation was on target to achieve, despite some problems, after WW II. We went awry though when we became such a huge military power that imposed its will on the rest of the world after the war and created the biggest entitlement program, the defense budget, and allocated a minimum of 15 percent of the nation to the military annually. Of course, this number rose during the overt conflicts we engaged in, like Korea and Vietnam, and the two Iraq wars. There have been books written about this, our "permanent military economy," that we would go into a Depression without the support of military spending. It's like our nation was hooked on a drug, in this case, military spending. And the waste in this is atrocious. We have spent literally billions of dollars on weapons that never were used and trillions of dollars on wars that never solved anything but killed millions like in Vietnam and Iraq, and yet we continue to glorify our military because it keeps us safe -- safe from what, people who want to control their own resources who don't want intrusion of American military bases protecting the assets of American corporations who are literally stealing the resources of other nations. Both Truman and Eisenhower understood this -- remember Ike's warning about the military-industrial complex, and Truman's regret about the growth of the covert operations of the CIA, which became its predominant function in maintaining control of other nations for the benefit of U.S. corporations and which engaged in drug-dealing and the black market arms trade to supply dictatorships. The Kennedys, while being "Cold Warriors" began to understand this and started to take steps to change things. Two of their goals were to get out of Vietnam and to limit the covert functions of the CIA. Unfortunately, the nefarious powers of the defense department and the CIA, which masterminded their assassinations, made sure this wouldn't happen. This was probably the beginning of the end of the democracy we were aspiring to and things have only gotten worse ever since, especially after Reagan came to power. Now we actually have a man as President who wants to become our first dictator.

 

[Stoked]

I still don't buy the economy is doing well claim. Based on what? You have something concrete besides some statistics without any sources to verify? How does this figure in the long-term? Why are so many traditional businesses going bankrupt? Why are people's salaries remaining stagnant while the cost of living rises? Why is healthcare getting more expensive and real estate prices rising so precipitously? So, the stock market is rising, but how many people do you think that benefits -- only a very small minority of the population. Yeah, the economy is good for a few people but not most, and it's the most bang for the buck, the most people who should benefit in a good economy like our most prosperous years during the 1950s. But that was a different era when there was actual regulation of the corporations.

You don’t believe it? Then try reading about it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...18-08-31/why-the-u-s-economy-is-having-a-boom

https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/news/economy/us-economy-boom-history/index.html

 

[str8line]

You don’t believe it? Then try reading about it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...18-08-31/why-the-u-s-economy-is-having-a-boom

https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/news/economy/us-economy-boom-history/index.html

Eenie has a point in that unlike the economy of the 50's and 60's, and even compared to the economy of the 80's, today's economic prosperity goes overwhelmingly to the 1% and especially the .1%. FAKE ECONOMY!

 

[Stoked]

Eenie has a point in that unlike the economy of the 50's and 60's, and even compared to the economy of the 80's, today's economic prosperity goes overwhelmingly to the 1% and especially the .1%. FAKE ECONOMY!

Lmfao. Nice jab on “fake economy”. It makes me genuinely laugh.

Sure the 1% takes the lionshare. But denying that the economy is booming is just silly.

 

[RandyForRubio]

I still don't buy the economy is doing well claim. Based on what? You have something concrete besides some statistics without any sources to verify? How does this figure in the long-term? Why are so many traditional businesses going bankrupt? Why are people's salaries remaining stagnant while the cost of living rises? Why is healthcare getting more expensive and real estate prices rising so precipitously? So, the stock market is rising, but how many people do you think that benefits -- only a very small minority of the population. Yeah, the economy is good for a few people but not most, and it's the most bang for the buck, the most people who should benefit in a good economy like our most prosperous years during the 1950s. But that was a different era when there was actual regulation of the corporations.

I believe wages have risen 3%, which is not stagnant. Real estate is booming. Construction is booming. Prices on everything is up. Unemployment is way down. Those are pretty good indicators the economy is doing well. The economy doing well does not prevent places like Sears from going out of business...I mean, that’s been waiting to happen because of poor business practices for like 10+ years.

 

[Alfalfa]

I believe wages have risen 3%, which is not stagnant. .

Against inflation?

 

[Getting Traded]

Well, those who disagree have failed to answer my questions with specific information. How about looking at debt profiles and comparing them to the years before Reagan. Then you will see that it is the banks that are growing prosperous, and also it should be added that corporations are making record profits, in part because they pay no taxes because of their overseas tax shelters. That's allowed because we virtually control the governments of those nations that give them their privileges. Ever read the books by "Economic Hit Man" John Perkins. Or try reading some of the tell-all books by disenchanted CIA agents. I don't have all the specifics on the American Empire as is the topic of another book that I have started reading, but Str8 is right, it is a fake economy. Good news for the 1 percent but not for most people, and democracy is about rule of the people, and a government that works for all the people, by the people, and for the people, and believe me it is perishing from the earth before our eyes. Wake up, people. We have representatives telling us after another mass shooting that now we should work to protect the second amendment rather than our own lives. Yes, owning guns is more important than protecting the lives of the people in our nation. This is insanity, and yes it rhymes with Hannity.

 

[RandyForRubio]

Against inflation?

I’m not sure tbh. Believe it was not adjusted for inflation.

Best I could find in a very, very, very short amount of research was that since 2001 wages have risen 5.3% adjusted to inflation and benefit costs adjusted to inflation have risen 22.5% since 2001. Purchasing power is about the same as it was in 1973, but our benefits are much higher than they were in 1973, so you have to factor that in.

Long story short, wages are increasing at the highest rate in a while, jobs are up, unemployment is down, wages are increasing, among other reasons, because unemployment is low so companies have to pay real quality wages to keep good employees. Of course, with wage increases will come inflation. There’s no getting around that. With all that said, it would be very difficult to say that the economy isn’t doing very well right now.

 

[RandyForRubio]

Sure is news to me that my corporation doesn’t pay taxes. I’ll have to tell my accountant to look into that, because my checks to the IRS indicate otherwise.

But anyways, corporate tax $$ coming in is way different than it was 50 years ago because an S-type corporation pays taxes on their profits through the owners income tax. The amount of C-type corporates have dropped dramatically, which is why comparing the tax $$ brought in on those compared to 50 years ago is dishonest and intentionally ignorant.

 

[Alfalfa]

I’m not sure tbh. Believe it was not adjusted for inflation.

Best I could find in a very, very, very short amount of research was that since 2001 wages have risen 5.3% adjusted to inflation and benefit costs adjusted to inflation have risen 22.5% since 2001. Purchasing power is about the same as it was in 1973, but our benefits are much higher than they were in 1973, so you have to factor that in.

Long story short, wages are increasing at the highest rate in a while, jobs are up, unemployment is down, wages are increasing, among other reasons, because unemployment is low so companies have to pay real quality wages to keep good employees. Of course, with wage increases will come inflation. There’s no getting around that. With all that said, it would be very difficult to say that the economy isn’t doing very well right now.

I agree that the economy is doing well. But the economy has also grown by a lot more than 5.3% since 2001 (eye balling it, looks like >25% adjusted for inflation). I think it's clear that the vast majority of growth is going toward the capital holders. But that's probably a global systemic issue that isn't simple to fix.

 

[RandyForRubio]

I agree that the economy is doing well. But the economy has also grown by a lot more than 5.3% since 2001 (eye balling it, looks like >25% adjusted for inflation). I think it's clear that the vast majority of growth is going toward the capital holders. But that's probably a global systemic issue that isn't simple to fix.

I mean, of course the majority of growth is going towards the capital holders. That should be expected, and it’s good. It’s the reward for owning and doing business well. That doesn’t mean our system is perfect, it’s absolutely not, but it’s not bad either.

Think about it. We have the luxury to discuss this on our phones. The time, the health, the ability. Things aren’t so bad.

 

[Alfalfa]

I mean, of course the majority of growth is going towards the capital holders. That should be expected, and it’s good. It’s the reward for owning and doing business well. That doesn’t mean our system is perfect, it’s absolutely not, but it’s not bad either.

Think about it. We have the luxury to discuss this on our phones. The time, the health, the ability. Things aren’t so bad.

Ya, tech progress complicates the living standards discussion. Nevertheless I don't think the continued accumulation of capital at the top is a good thing. If Trump presented the discussion as "I promise 4% growth, out of which 3.7% will go toward the rich", most people would not be happy. And rightly so. There is a lot of resentment toward billionaires adding a few more billions to their net-worth every year, while arguments for why this is a good thing become more and more complicated and convoluted.

 

[DutchJazzer]

Eenie has a point in that unlike the economy of the 50's and 60's, and even compared to the economy of the 80's, today's economic prosperity goes overwhelmingly to the 1% and especially the .1%. FAKE ECONOMY!

lol that is because now people are entitled!

people who arent even working, who are living on government assitence are buying things like 500-1000 dollar phones! every 1-2 years. you are living on governments dime! don't ****ing buy **** that are out of your living standards!

so what this does it makes big companies sell more of their products! which means those big companies make MORE money. this is simple economics. if you look at certain countries and you look at the lowest class. and you see what kind of luxury items they have like 200+ dollar phones. and those who have not. there is one coloration they are getting free government money and spent it unwisely!

so these kind of things makes the 1% richer! because they are selling **** to people who can afford it.

people should live according to their income bracket! if you are living of govenrment assitence stop buying luxury products. start saving some of that money!instead of buying a fricking 500-1000 dollar phone buy a 100 dollar phone and get some ****ing stocks into apple or samsung! you did not work for that money so you don't deserve that phone!

this is what makes the rich richer!
people dont seem to grasp this simple concept.
if you was poor in the 50's you had less luxury items then now!

simple economics these fools do not understand, then eeniemeenie questions my inteliffence. bo i got a degree in aerospace engineering! what do you have! you dont have a grasp of free market economy.
because governmetn taking money and then redistrubiting it is NOT free market economy! it rigs the economy.
the govenrment mandating banks to lend money is also not free market economy. it makes people consume luxury items and items beyond their mean income! throws the whoel system out of whack so when it fails people blame capitalism!

no you illiterate uninformed punk! it is the fault of RIGGING free markets. restraining them and tying them down

 

[Keefe]

Triggered.

 

[DutchJazzer]

Simple their is no free market. govenrment is giving away free money. so people who shouldnt buy certain things buy those things. which makes demand go UP!
when demand goes up. supply cant always go up because of manufacturing or other limtis. so prices go up so More moneys for big companies!

SIMPLE GAWD DAMNED ECONOMICS

 

[RandyForRubio]

Ya, tech progress complicates the living standards discussion. Nevertheless I don't think the continued accumulation of capital at the top is a good thing. If Trump presented the discussion as "I promise 4% growth, out of which 3.7% will go toward the rich", most people would not be happy. And rightly so. There is a lot of resentment toward billionaires adding a few more billions to their net-worth every year, while arguments for why this is a good thing become more and more complicated and convoluted.

Growth is growth.

Progress is progress.

You and I are most likely not going to earn as much money in our life team as some CEO’s earn in a year, and honestly, it sucks. It feel unfair. They’re also creating more jobs, more tech, more food, more cars, etc etc etc. It’s hard for me to say they shouldn’t get that money. I don’t like to put caps on what people can earn...that seems more unfair tbh.

Here’s the beautiful thing. We live in a country where a 29 year old bar tender can get elected to Congress in New York! We live in a country where a poor boy who grew up in the slums of Louisiana can grow up to be the National Fire Chief. We live in a country where wealthy parents can hand their wealth down to their family, or give it all to charity, or waste it all, and it is their choice. We have so many opportunities here, and people from all socioeconomic levels have succeeded and failed. And that’s a beautiful thing.

So naw, I’m not going to worry about the top getting all the wealth. I have a combined family income of $95k. I have a family of 5. I can afford health insurance, food, a house, vehicles, phones, the very rare trip or two...I’m happy man. I’m privileged. More than a lot, and not as many as a lot. But I’m happy. I don’t need the newest iPhone or the shiniest car. I don’t get government help anymore, and I pay my taxes. It’s tough on occasion...but it’s still a damn good life.

 

[Alfalfa]

Growth is growth.

Progress is progress.

You and I are most likely not going to earn as much money in our life team as some CEO’s earn in a year, and honestly, it sucks. It feel unfair. They’re also creating more jobs, more tech, more food, more cars, etc etc etc. It’s hard for me to say they shouldn’t get that money. I don’t like to put caps on what people can earn...that seems more unfair tbh.

Here’s the beautiful thing. We live in a country where a 29 year old bar tender can get elected to Congress in New York! We live in a country where a poor boy who grew up in the slums of Louisiana can grow up to be the National Fire Chief. We live in a country where wealthy parents can hand their wealth down to their family, or give it all to charity, or waste it all, and it is their choice. We have so many opportunities here, and people from all socioeconomic levels have succeeded and failed. And that’s a beautiful thing.

So naw, I’m not going to worry about the top getting all the wealth. I have a combined family income of $95k. I have a family of 5. I can afford health insurance, food, a house, vehicles, phones, the very rare trip or two...I’m happy man. I’m privileged. More than a lot, and not as many as a lot. But I’m happy. I don’t need the newest iPhone or the shiniest car. I don’t get government help anymore, and I pay my taxes. It’s tough on occasion...but it’s still a damn good life.

You own a farm. Most people do not earn anything near that. I'm pretty sure average house hold income is in 50k range. For someone working at a company for $15 an hour, the fact his or her CEO, who makes 10m a year, can create a bunch of other $15/hour jobs doesn't mean much. As for social mobility, it's getting worse and worse. Currently, something like 7% of people born in the bottom 20% in socioeconomic status reach the top 20% in their lifetimes. The figure is 13% in Canada. So there is a decline in opportunity that can be correlated to income inequality.

I hate to bitch about this because my gut feeling is similar to yours. The US is doing fine. Nothing is perfect, and we've done fairly well, despite the problems.

 

[RandyForRubio]

You own a farm. Most people do not earn anything near that. I'm pretty sure average house hold income is in 50k range. For someone working at a company for $15 an hour, the fact his or her CEO, who makes 10m a year, can create a bunch of other $15/hour jobs doesn't mean much. As for social mobility, it's getting worse and worse. Currently, something like 7% of people born in the bottom 20% in socioeconomic status reach the top 20% in their lifetimes. The figure is 13% in Canada. So there is a decline in opportunity that can be correlated to income inequality.

I hate to bitch about this because my gut feeling is similar to yours. The US is doing fine. Nothing is perfect, and we've done fairly well, despite the problems.

I don’t own a farm. I manage one and I’ll have the option to buy it in a few years and spend the rest of my life paying it off.

I don’t even own a home, I rent. I can’t afford to build or buy.

I understand it doesn’t help the one guy at the company, but it does help the country. And that’s more
Important.

 

[RandyForRubio]

And 7% of the bottom 20 going to the top 20 is still really good! There aren’t very many places where you can do that. Could it be better? Absolutely. Am I gonna bitch about how awful we have it? No, no I’m not.

 

[Zombie]

And 7% of the bottom 20 going to the top 20 is still really good! There aren’t very many places where you can do that. Could it be better? Absolutely. Am I gonna bitch about how awful we have it? No, no I’m not.

It really a isn't though, at least not when compared to our peers across the pond like Sweden and Denmark. The fact Is the US is middle of the pack when it comes to upward mobility among developed nations.