Favs Deal Must Be Moved

[Handlogten's Heros]

Right, I'm not even expecting him to pay it. But if he does it has zero impact on my life and I don't know why people get concerned about a billionaire spending some change. I don't know how, but for some reason fans share the "pain" of owners paying luxury tax. I understand being skeptical of their willingness to pay, I don't understand why you feel that burden if they do pay.

It’s because it surely will factor into other decisions. For instance if Mike needs 25M to stay vs 20M it’s a whole lot more reasonable if you don’t have Favs on the books… same thing with the taxpayer MLE. We can say finances don’t matter… billionaire… yada yada but the fact is the basketball and the finances are related. If you care about one then you should care about the other.

 

[KqWIN]

It’s because it surely will factor into other decisions. For instance if Mike needs 25M to stay vs 20M it’s a whole lot more reasonable if you don’t have Favs on the books… same thing with the taxpayer MLE. We can say finances don’t matter… billionaire… yada yada but the fact is the basketball and the finances are related. If you care about one then you should care about the other.

Once again...I do understand the implications. But I also understand that the penalty has zero impact on me. Tax penalty is 100% Ryan Smith. Obviously his decision effects the basketball product, but simply talking about the penalty, zero impact on anyone but his finances. I understand if he doesn't want to spend his money, but if he does I'm not feeling sorry him.

I don't believe Ryan Smith could be so unaware that he didn't know the tax bill was coming, so that gives me some hope that he doesn't care either. But then again, he just sold a second round pick to save what...200k on Rayjon Tucker. This is after spending $3M in cash for Elijah Hughes....so maybe he isn't all there.

When it comes down to it, I expect our first round pick to be traded to dump salary. If it doesn't, I think it's all but guaranteed that Conley is gone. Don't see all of the salary coming back next year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Once again...I do understand the implications. But I also understand that the penalty has zero impact on me. Tax penalty is 100% Ryan Smith. Obviously his decision effects the basketball product, but simply talking about the penalty, zero impact on anyone but his finances. I understand if he doesn't want to spend his money, but if he does I'm not feeling sorry him.

I don't believe Ryan Smith could be so unaware that he didn't know the tax bill was coming, so that gives me some hope that he doesn't care either. But then again, he just sold a second round pick to save what...200k on Rayjon Tucker. This is after spending $3M in cash for Elijah Hughes....so maybe he isn't all there.

When it comes down to it, I expect our first round pick to be traded to dump salary. If it doesn't, I think it's all but guaranteed that Conley is gone. Don't see all of the salary coming back next year.

Yeah I don't want to talk in circles... I get the penalty is on him... but he will do things that could hurt the on court to skirt the penalty (which is likely the outcome) and that is why fans care and pay attention to this stuff... just explaining the rationale. Very few owners spend into eternal tax and those owners are usually the title favorites or they were like the Warriors last year (guessing they'd like a refund on the Oubre deal).

I think he trusted that DL had a handle on things. Likely knew a tax bill was coming but that it wasn't going to be out of hand. Ryan can't micromanage everything... so you trust competent help. DL was either negligent, ignorant, or lazy with regard to his cap management. I think its part of the reason he's no longer in charge. The Tucker move was inconsistent... not sure they messed up the math... or knew the math and then decided to give themselves a shot at ducking the tax even though they knew it was likely impossible. The Tucker deal makes no sense unless you thought you were inching closer to ducking the tax. Call it whatever you like... the ****ed up and I feel like I was proven right since he got his walking papers (after the team was really successful nonetheless).

I think they will try to move money around the margins and jump on a deal to get off Favs salary with the pick as the incentive. I don't agree that it means Conley is gone... I think he gets a fair offer either way. I think if he comes back you don't use the taxpayer MLE unless something amazing comes around... and if it does I think you move Bogey or JC for a lower salaried player.

 

[NAOS]

At least we got two different Derricks for our money. One looked like a guy that was a starter-level center who could unlock a bevy of different lineup combinations and be a net positive. The other, though, could barely move on any given night.

In the end, we clearly got too much of the latter. Definitely needs to be moved.

 

[KqWIN]

Yeah I don't want to talk in circles... I get the penalty is on him... but he will do things that could hurt the on court to skirt the penalty (which is likely the outcome) and that is why fans care and pay attention to this stuff... just explaining the rationale. Very few owners spend into eternal tax and those owners are usually the title favorites or they were like the Warriors last year (guessing they'd like a refund on the Oubre deal).

I think he trusted that DL had a handle on things. Likely knew a tax bill was coming but that it wasn't going to be out of hand. Ryan can't micromanage everything... so you trust competent help. DL was either negligent, ignorant, or lazy with regard to his cap management. I think its part of the reason he's no longer in charge. The Tucker move was inconsistent... not sure they messed up the math... or knew the math and then decided to give themselves a shot at ducking the tax even though they knew it was likely impossible. The Tucker deal makes no sense unless you thought you were inching closer to ducking the tax. Call it whatever you like... the ****ed up and I feel like I was proven right since he got his walking papers (after the team was really successful nonetheless).

I think they will try to move money around the margins and jump on a deal to get off Favs salary with the pick as the incentive. I don't agree that it means Conley is gone... I think he gets a fair offer either way. I think if he comes back you don't use the taxpayer MLE unless something amazing comes around... and if it does I think you move Bogey or JC for a lower salaried player.

The Tucker deal showed gross incompotence and while I get what you're saying about feeling validated with DL's ousting, the guy who was running day to day and most of the FO is still here. Everyone in that FO who let it happen should be ashamed because messing up the numbers is not a one man job.

If I were running things, I'd try to move off of Bogey and Clarkson for younger and cheaper cost controlled players or draft picks. We had a two year window to compete, we failed, so now it's time to restructure as the focus should be DM's next contract. I just don't see us doing that, however, and it's also difficult to find those moves because the draft is before free agency. Teams that would want those players are looking to win now and probably have higher hopes for their space. Favors would be a salary dump situation to a bad team so it's much more realistic imo.

I think that the Jazz will have a good idea of where Conley sits before the draft. Maybe not, because they failed to get a good read on Hayward, but in theory the Jazz should be fairly certain if he's coming back or not. Negations start way before the moratorium. If they are picking for themselves on draft night I think it's a tell that they know Conley is not coming back because I don't think Smith will choose the pick over $90M and Favors. I just have a hard time seeing all the salary coming back, and Favors is the obvious place to cut it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Tucker deal showed gross incompotence and while I get what you're saying about feeling validated with DL's ousting, the guy who was running day to day and most of the FO is still here. Everyone in that FO who let it happen should be ashamed because messing up the numbers is not a one man job.

If I were running things, I'd try to move off of Bogey and Clarkson for younger and cheaper cost controlled players or draft picks. We had a two year window to compete, we failed, so now it's time to restructure as the focus should be DM's next contract. I just don't see us doing that, however, and it's also difficult to find those moves because the draft is before free agency. Teams that would want those players are looking to win now and probably have higher hopes for their space. Favors would be a salary dump situation to a bad team so it's much more realistic imo.

I think that the Jazz will have a good idea of where Conley sits before the draft. Maybe not, because they failed to get a good read on Hayward, but in theory the Jazz should be fairly certain if he's coming back or not. Negations start way before the moratorium. If they are picking for themselves on draft night I think it's a tell that they know Conley is not coming back because I don't think Smith will choose the pick over $90M and Favors. I just have a hard time seeing all the salary coming back, and Favors is the obvious place to cut it.

I'm with you... on all of this. I think they would do a full front office pivot if it wasn't such a critical time in the franchise. I will say that the report that DL basically said "eff you guys I'm taking Udoka" may have been how things went. I imagine some assistant front office person injecting themselves in the Favs and JC negotiations and saying "hey we need to shave a couple million off these deals to avoid the tax" and being completely ignored... then DL thinking we will figure that out later. Even if they had flipped the Udoka pick for a second... and then taken Udoka in the 30s... because he would have been there... it may have given them the necessary wiggle room.

I agree the draft is the tell... I think I said as much somewhere. If we move back even if its just for seconds it will shave some dollars off... sucks to make decisions based on a rookie making 900k vs. 2M but that's kinda where we are.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Once again...I do understand the implications. But I also understand that the penalty has zero impact on me. Tax penalty is 100% Ryan Smith. Obviously his decision effects the basketball product, but simply talking about the penalty, zero impact on anyone but his finances. I understand if he doesn't want to spend his money, but if he does I'm not feeling sorry him.

I don't believe Ryan Smith could be so unaware that he didn't know the tax bill was coming, so that gives me some hope that he doesn't care either. But then again, he just sold a second round pick to save what...200k on Rayjon Tucker. This is after spending $3M in cash for Elijah Hughes....so maybe he isn't all there.

When it comes down to it, I expect our first round pick to be traded to dump salary. If it doesn't, I think it's all but guaranteed that Conley is gone. Don't see all of the salary coming back next year.

I actually don’t think the team was planning to pay the tax last year. I think signing Favors to the contract they did only begins to make sense under the premise of not being in the tax last year. Then the cap math got totally ****ing botched.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I actually don’t think the team was planning to pay the tax last year. I think signing Favors to the contract they did only begins to make sense under the premise of not being in the tax last year. Then the cap math got totally ****ing botched.

There is no way they could have planned to be in the tax the year before Don and Rudy's extensions kicked in. The only other explanation besides screwing up the math is that they planned on being bad and moving a deal at the deadline, but couldn't justify it based on the standings.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

One "meh" deal that may work... Favs for Thomas Bryant. Bryant only has one year left on his deal. He tore his ACL in February... could be back by December/January, but Wiz will want a solid vet center to pair with Gafford. This allows them to get a replacement without changing too much of the math with their offseason.

We do it because he makes a million less than Favs... so saves us $4M... we could waive and stretch him... or a third team like OKC could absorb his salary for lighter compensation. If we kept him we could roll with Udoka as the backup for the first few months of the season... maybe he's good. If not then Bryant can take over in the spring. Big savings when Bryant's deal expires. Allows us to be in the range to duck the repeater tax.

 

[GVC]

I preached DL was an idiot before and was persecuted now look. Hopefully Wade and Smith can fix his stupidity.

I hate told-you-so's, generally, but...

A handful of years ago, I was basically run off the board (by Fish and a few other dullards) for suggesting that the jury was still out on DL. At the time, I pointed out that DL had inherited a playoff team with 2 near-all stars (Millsap proved to be an all-star upon leaving) and four young lottery picks, but had yet to build a team any better than the one he inherited (or the ones KOC had built in the initial post-S2M era).

Well, there were 9 post-S2M KOC Jazz teams and now 9 post-KOC DL teams, and I think it's tough to make the case that DL has done better job in his 9 years than KOC did in his last 9, despite having a much more advantageous starting point:

Record
KOC: 390-332, .540 (44.3 wins over an 82-game season)
DL: 391-327, .545 (44.7 wins over an 82-game season)

Playoffs
KOC: 5 appearances, 4 series wins
DL: 5 appearances, 3 series wins

It's worth reiterating that the Jazz had a stockpile of young talent and a couple expiring near all-stars when DL came on, and the Jazz currently have very little in the way of assets and financial flexibility to improve the current team--although they do have two stars.

DL's not a terrible GM/Executive, mind you, just not a particularly creative or proactive one.

 

[infection]

One "meh" deal that may work... Favs for Thomas Bryant. Bryant only has one year left on his deal. He tore his ACL in February... could be back by December/January, but Wiz will want a solid vet center to pair with Gafford. This allows them to get a replacement without changing too much of the math with their offseason.

We do it because he makes a million less than Favs... so saves us $4M... we could waive and stretch him... or a third team like OKC could absorb his salary for lighter compensation. If we kept him we could roll with Udoka as the backup for the first few months of the season... maybe he's good. If not then Bryant can take over in the spring. Big savings when Bryant's deal expires. Allows us to be in the range to duck the repeater tax.

I like that deal and if he had anything left in the tank when he came back I think it would be a net positive.

 

[LoPo]

I hate told-you-so's, generally, but...

A handful of years ago, I was basically run off the board (by Fish and a few other dullards) for suggesting that the jury was still out on DL. At the time, I pointed out that DL had inherited a playoff team with 2 near-all stars (Millsap proved to be an all-star upon leaving) and four young lottery picks, but had yet to build a team any better than the one he inherited (or the ones KOC had built in the initial post-S2M era).

Well, there were 9 post-S2M KOC Jazz teams and now 9 post-KOC DL teams, and I think it's tough to make the case that DL has done better job in his 9 years than KOC did in his last 9, despite having a much more advantageous starting point:

Record
KOC: 390-332, .540 (44.3 wins over an 82-game season)
DL: 391-327, .545 (44.7 wins over an 82-game season)

Playoffs
KOC: 5 appearances, 4 series wins
DL: 5 appearances, 3 series wins

It's worth reiterating that the Jazz had a stockpile of young talent and a couple expiring near all-stars when DL came on, and the Jazz currently have very little in the way of assets and financial flexibility to improve the current team--although they do have two stars.

DL's not a terrible GM/Executive, mind you, just not a particularly creative or proactive one.

Very interesting. Good post

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