mct
Well-Known Member
I know things will probably change, but right now it seems like a clear dropoff is forming after pick four. If it stays this way I would almost rather have the fifth pick than the fourth. The team picking fourth will have very little choice whom they draft--they'll just take whichever player falls--whereas the team picking fifth will have their choice among five or six guys without sacrificing too much value.
Don't get me wrong... Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, and Exum are my four favorite players in the draft, but it wouldn't surprise me if the player picked fifth has a better career than the top tier player picked right before him. For a player to succeed his team must be fully committed to him, and sometimes that doesn't happen in cases where his perceived value forces a team's hand.
Recent examples include Michael Beasley, Evan Turner, and Derrick Williams. These guys were all the second best player in supposed 'two-player drafts'. The teams that drafted them didn't really have a choice. I'm trying to think of other examples farther down in the draft. If I remember right wasn't there another pretty clear dropoff after pick eight in the 2010 draft? The Clippers pretty much had to take Aminu, and nobody knew what the Jazz were going to do with the ninth pick. Utah and Indiana had their pick of the remaining field, so maybe it's no surprise that Hayward and George have gone onto have better careers than some of the guys picked ahead of them.
Not saying I wouldn't prefer to move up or stay at fourth, but if we drop to fifth I'm going to try to see it as a blessing in disguise (after breaking a few things, of course).
Don't get me wrong... Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, and Exum are my four favorite players in the draft, but it wouldn't surprise me if the player picked fifth has a better career than the top tier player picked right before him. For a player to succeed his team must be fully committed to him, and sometimes that doesn't happen in cases where his perceived value forces a team's hand.
Recent examples include Michael Beasley, Evan Turner, and Derrick Williams. These guys were all the second best player in supposed 'two-player drafts'. The teams that drafted them didn't really have a choice. I'm trying to think of other examples farther down in the draft. If I remember right wasn't there another pretty clear dropoff after pick eight in the 2010 draft? The Clippers pretty much had to take Aminu, and nobody knew what the Jazz were going to do with the ninth pick. Utah and Indiana had their pick of the remaining field, so maybe it's no surprise that Hayward and George have gone onto have better careers than some of the guys picked ahead of them.
Not saying I wouldn't prefer to move up or stay at fourth, but if we drop to fifth I'm going to try to see it as a blessing in disguise (after breaking a few things, of course).
