Following Potential 2020 draftees

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I just look at the Jazz roster at the SF/PF/C positions and I feel like we could use a guy who provides athleticism, size, defensive versatility.

That's why I'm high on the idea of guys like Paul Reed and Precious Achiuwa. They can compliment the roster we already have by providing a different element. They are better and more versatile defenders than Bogey. They are bigger than Royce. They are more athletic than Joe. They are more mobile than Tony Bradley. I feel like they shown enough of a raw ability to shoot that you could get away with putting them next to Rudy situationally if they continue development. If they were to pan out the way they project they would make an impact on this roster because they bring something different that we could really use. Ya know what I mean?

You're right that we need an elite, 2-way forward between Mitchell and Gobert. We need some size, toughness and physicality. Paul Reed looks interesting to me. However, if someone can't shoot well enough to do their part in spacing the floor and knocking down open shots, I don't think he's going to play. Royce didn't get on the court until his shot was consistent enough. Quin wants shooting and ball movement, so much so that Georges Niang gets regular rotation minutes.

A few other guys---

Patrick Williams is the 6'8" athletic wing with a 6'11" wingspan who shows some promise as a shooter and ball mover, but he's likely to get picked in the teens.

Tyler Bey is a pretty prototypical 6'7" with a 7'1" foot wingspan. He's an athletic, defensive combo-forward who probably is going to be a quicker, more versatile version of Larry Nance. But he doesn't shoot.

Robert Woodard is a tough 6'7" 230-lb wing who has some versatility, but his shooting is suspect too. He reminds me of the post-injury version of Rudy Gay.

Jaden McDaniels is a long, skilled wing who might fall into our range, but he's the epitome of a soft, finesse player--like Rodney Hood soft.

Not sure if the Jazz will find a player they really like from this group, other than Williams. I think it's likely that the Jazz will draft a guard to play next to Mitchell in a year or two.

 

[SCS]

You're right that we need an elite, 2-way forward between Mitchell and Gobert. We need some size, toughness and physicality. Paul Reed looks interesting to me. However, if someone can't shoot well enough to do their part in spacing the floor and knocking down open shots, I don't think he's going to play. Royce didn't get on the court until his shot was consistent enough. Quin wants shooting and ball movement, so much so that Georges Niang gets regular rotation minutes.

A few other guys---

Patrick Williams is the 6'8" athletic wing with a 6'11" wingspan who shows some promise as a shooter and ball mover, but he's likely to get picked in the teens.

Tyler Bey is a pretty prototypical 6'7" with a 7'1" foot wingspan. He's an athletic, defensive combo-forward who probably is going to be a quicker, more versatile version of Larry Nance. But he doesn't shoot.

Robert Woodard is a tough 6'7" 230-lb wing who has some versatility, but his shooting is suspect too. He reminds me of the post-injury version of Rudy Gay.

Jaden McDaniels is a long, skilled wing who might fall into our range, but he's the epitome of a soft, finesse player--like Rodney Hood soft.

Not sure if the Jazz will find a player they really like from this group, other than Williams. I think it's likely that the Jazz will draft a guard to play next to Mitchell in a year or two.

Elijah Hughes is interesting. He's not quite as big as these other guys we're talking about. But he is 6'6 and looks to have decent length. 22 years old. Smooth athlete. Has some ball skills and flashes some shot creation ability. But the thing I love is his shot. Great touch. Almost nothing but net every time it goes in. Defense is a bit of an unknown because of the Syracuse zone.

 

[Game6Conley]

Jaden McDaniels is a long, skilled wing who might fall into our range, but he's the epitome of a soft, finesse player--like Rodney Hood soft.

This really isnt a good take/evaluation... ... If anything, he's over-aggressive...

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

This really isnt a good take/evaluation... ... If anything, he's over-aggressive...

He avoids contact and doesn't finish well at the rim. He needs to gain strength to be able to drive to open up his game. He's so-so at getting to the line.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Below are the players the Jazz have drafted in the 20s during the past 20 years. I've bolded the players who have had the best careers as starters in the league.

1999 - Andrei Kirilenko
1999 - Scott Padgett
2000 - Deshaun Stevenson
2001 - Raul Lopez
2004 - Pavel Podkolzin
2007 - Morris Almond
2008 - Kosta Kofous
2009 - Eric Maynor
2013 - Rudy Gobert
2014 - Rodney Hood
2017 - Tony Bradley
2018 - Grayson Allen

Of these 12 players drafted, the two best players were the foreigners who were underdeveloped physically. Kirilenko stayed overseas for 2 years before coming over. Gobert was a polarizing prospect who lasted all the way to the 27th pick. Then the third best player was an athletic kid drafted right out of high school.

When you're drafting in the 20s, quite often you have to look around the fringes for guys who are a bit undervalued, either because they're overseas or because they're young and unproven. Or, you can draft more mainstream college players and expect them to be backups.

 

[Avery]

I honestly haven't researched much of anything this draft. A lot of so-so talent in the top ten combined with a shortened season and no face time equals where your scouting is really going to matter.

I expect a lot of trades.

 

[Game6Conley]

I honestly haven't researched much of anything this draft. A lot of so-so talent in the top ten combined with a shortened season and no face time equals where your scouting is really going to matter.

I expect a lot of trades.

yup.

 

[SCS]

Below are the players the Jazz have drafted in the 20s during the past 20 years. I've bolded the players who have had the best careers as starters in the league.

1999 - Andrei Kirilenko
1999 - Scott Padgett
2000 - Deshaun Stevenson
2001 - Raul Lopez
2004 - Pavel Podkolzin
2007 - Morris Almond
2008 - Kosta Kofous
2009 - Eric Maynor
2013 - Rudy Gobert
2014 - Rodney Hood
2017 - Tony Bradley
2018 - Grayson Allen

Of these 12 players drafted, the two best players were the foreigners who were underdeveloped physically. Kirilenko stayed overseas for 2 years before coming over. Gobert was a polarizing prospect who lasted all the way to the 27th pick. Then the third best player was an athletic kid drafted right out of high school.

When you're drafting in the 20s, quite often you have to look around the fringes for guys who are a bit undervalued, either because they're overseas or because they're young and unproven. Or, you can draft more mainstream college players and expect them to be backups.

I agree with a lot of this. At the same time, I wouldn't just draft a guy because he's young and unproven with hopes and prayers of a future star dancing in your head. Youth doesn't necessarily mean more potential. Also it's not really a bad thing to get a solid bench guy in the 20's. So I wouldn't disqualify an older player for that reason either. Only around 20 players from each draft spend any meaningful time in the league on average. Some will be younger prospects, some will be older. Many will just be rotation guys.

One of the big things I look at is does the prospect have a skill or trait that is good enough that a team will put them on the floor early? Do they have something that allows them to fit a role? If they do then I'm intrigued no matter what the age is. If they don't then I'm not, no matter what the age is.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I agree with a lot of this. At the same time, I wouldn't just draft a guy because he's young and unproven with hopes and prayers of a future star dancing in your head. Youth doesn't necessarily mean more potential. Also it's not really a bad thing to get a solid bench guy in the 20's. So I wouldn't disqualify an older player for that reason either. Only around 20 players from each draft spend any meaningful time in the league on average. Some will be younger prospects, some will be older. Many will just be rotation guys.

One of the big things I look at is does the prospect have a skill or trait that is good enough that a team will put them on the floor early? Do they have something that allows them to fit a role? If they do then I'm intrigued no matter what the age is. If they don't then I'm not, no matter what the age is.

The two best players on our team are Gobert and Mitchell. Both were acquired in the draft. If the Jazz are going to add another star-caliber player, they're most likely to do it via the draft. I'm looking for upside, even if it comes with risk. I'm looking for guys who can really make an impact and raise the ceiling of the team, understanding that we can get rotation-caliber players via trade or free agency.

Could guys like Robert Woodard or Isaiah Stewart make it in the league? Yes, but they don't change the outlook of the team, so I'm not really interested so long as someone with more upside is on the board.

We're looking for guys with both the physical tools and the mental tools to be great.

 

[Game6Conley]

The two best players on our team are Gobert and Mitchell. Both were acquired in the draft. If the Jazz are going to add another star-caliber player, they're most likely to do it via the draft. I'm looking for upside, even if it comes with risk. I'm looking for guys who can really make an impact and raise the ceiling of the team, understanding that we can get rotation-caliber players via trade or free agency.

Could guys like Robert Woodard or Isaiah Stewart make it in the league? Yes, but they don't change the outlook of the team, so I'm not really interested so long as someone with more upside is on the board.

We're looking for guys with both the physical tools and the mental tools to be great.

Agreed

 

[homeytennis]

I noticed Thurl Bailey's son is foregoing his final two years of college eligibility to enter the draft. He averaged something like 5 ppg for Marquette. Just what the Jazz need.

 

[SCS]

The two best players on our team are Gobert and Mitchell. Both were acquired in the draft. If the Jazz are going to add another star-caliber player, they're most likely to do it via the draft. I'm looking for upside, even if it comes with risk. I'm looking for guys who can really make an impact and raise the ceiling of the team, understanding that we can get rotation-caliber players via trade or free agency.

Could guys like Robert Woodard or Isaiah Stewart make it in the league? Yes, but they don't change the outlook of the team, so I'm not really interested so long as someone with more upside is on the board.

We're looking for guys with both the physical tools and the mental tools to be great.

Yes and I agree. But what I'm saying is that if a player doesn't have a skill/trait that can potentially fill a role in a teams rotation early in their career then what is the real potential of them being a star down the road?

You see what I mean? Like I'm all for taking a shot. But it's gotta be a calculated shot.

Example... I don't see anything in Bolmaro's game that has strong likelihood of getting him into a rotation. I wouldn't shoot my shot there. But if they wanted to gamble on a guy like Pokusevski who shows a good shot form, good ball skills and good mobility at 7 feet? I'm down. Those are skills and traits that eventually fill a role. And those are things that carry potential to make him so much more than just a rotation piece.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Yes and I agree. But what I'm saying is that if a player doesn't have a skill/trait that can potentially fill a role in a teams rotation early in their career then what is the real potential of them being a star down the road?

You see what I mean? Like I'm all for taking a shot. But it's gotta be a calculated shot.

Example... I don't see anything in Bolmaro's game that has strong likelihood of getting him into a rotation. I wouldn't shoot my shot there. But if they wanted to gamble on a guy like Pokusevski who shows a good shot form, good ball skills and good mobility at 7 feet? I'm down. Those are skills and traits that eventually fill a role. And those are things that carry potential to make him so much more than just a rotation piece.

First of all, of course, you're looking for a player with upside and a foundation to build upon, not just any guy that's young or foreign. Yes, I'd be excited about drafting Pokusevski in the 18 - 22 range.

Regarding Bolmaro, we're in disagreement. What I see is potentially a 6'7" version of Ricky Rubio who can run a pick-and-roll oriented offense and score at the rim. He's got a better handle and better passing vision and timing than Gordon Hayward. He also plays with an energy and competitiveness on defense that can't be taught. His steal rate is one of the best, if not the best, in the class. (It's him or Haliburton.) He can play next to Donovan in the back court, alternate running possessions like Ingles does currently, and guard multiple players on switches once he adds some strength. When Conley leaves in a year and Ingles starts reducing his minutes, Bolmaro should be ready to start stepping in. The bet you're making with him is that he improves his shooting. That's a bet you should be willing to make considering the Jazz's training staff have been able to help guys like Hayward, Royce, Joe and Georges add 4 - 7 percentage points to their shooting. They even had Rubio hitting corner 3s at a respectable percentage for a while there, and Rubio might have been the worst shooter among guards in the entire league (not to overlook Kris Dunn).

Outside the top 20 of this draft, I don't see another player with more potential to be a starter and impact the team. If Maledon is available, and the Jazz want to go that direction, I can respect that. If they fall in love with Grant Riller, then okay. If they think they can light a fire under Jaden McDaniels, okay. If they think they can fix Paul Reed's shot or teach Tyler Bey to shoot, then maybe that's worth a try. Otherwise, I think Bolmaro makes a strong case.

(I have to say though, Vernon Carey looks like a beast.)

 

[homeytennis]

There was a good writeup over on the other page in the Deseret News about Utah State's Sam Merrill a 6'5" guard and how he caught fire late in the year and helped his team beat No. 2 San Diego State. He would probably be a late 2nd round/ UDFA pick. Also UDFA material are Boise State's Justian Jessup (beat Jimmer's conference 3 point record and RJ Williams who is somewhat of a Brantley type player.

 

[Game6Conley]

Former UNC guard Ty Lawson dropping bombs on coach Roy Williams. Quotes too spicy to even post here..

 

[SCS]

First of all, of course, you're looking for a player with upside and a foundation to build upon, not just any guy that's young or foreign. Yes, I'd be excited about drafting Pokusevski in the 18 - 22 range.

Regarding Bolmaro, we're in disagreement. What I see is potentially a 6'7" version of Ricky Rubio who can run a pick-and-roll oriented offense and score at the rim. He's got a better handle and better passing vision and timing than Gordon Hayward. He also plays with an energy and competitiveness on defense that can't be taught. His steal rate is one of the best, if not the best, in the class. (It's him or Haliburton.) He can play next to Donovan in the back court, alternate running possessions like Ingles does currently, and guard multiple players on switches once he adds some strength. When Conley leaves in a year and Ingles starts reducing his minutes, Bolmaro should be ready to start stepping in. The bet you're making with him is that he improves his shooting. That's a bet you should be willing to make considering the Jazz's training staff have been able to help guys like Hayward, Royce, Joe and Georges add 4 - 7 percentage points to their shooting. They even had Rubio hitting corner 3s at a respectable percentage for a while there, and Rubio might have been the worst shooter among guards in the entire league (not to overlook Kris Dunn).

Outside the top 20 of this draft, I don't see another player with more potential to be a starter and impact the team. If Maledon is available, and the Jazz want to go that direction, I can respect that. If they fall in love with Grant Riller, then okay. If they think they can light a fire under Jaden McDaniels, okay. If they think they can fix Paul Reed's shot or teach Tyler Bey to shoot, then maybe that's worth a try. Otherwise, I think Bolmaro makes a strong case.

(I have to say though, Vernon Carey looks like a beast.)

We just have a completely different view of Bolmaro. And that's fine.

 

[SCS]

Did anyone else listen to Chad Ford's podcast today? He released his Top 30 big board. Some interesting stuff. Sounds like some teams are high enough on Pokusevski to take him in the lottery. Teams sound split on guys like Reed, Maxey and Cole Anthony. RJ Hampton was 11 on his board, he said he's heard him as high as 8. Kira Lewis was 13 on his board. Elijah Hughes who I like and mentioned a few days ago made the top 30. Riller, Bey and Bolmaro didn't make the list.

 

[SCS]

I was thinking about this yesterday but this pandemic could impact the amount of trades in the draft this year. I think we'll see less movement. Owners won't be as quick to okay player for pick moves or straight buying picks because of the financial implications. And GM's will probably be hesitant to move up the board unless they can actually work out these guys.

 

[SCS]

Devon Dotson gets by his man with ease. He's another guy I've enjoyed watching.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I was thinking about this yesterday but this pandemic could impact the amount of trades in the draft this year. I think we'll see less movement. Owners won't be as quick to okay player for pick moves or straight buying picks because of the financial implications. And GM's will probably be hesitant to move up the board unless they can actually work out these guys.

I think more than a few teams will be selling picks this draft. Some of the owners will be in a tough spot with decline in revenue, uncertainty, and potential that the cap is dropping. FA will provide opportunities for big spenders as well. I think general activity will be way down in both draft, trade and FA... uncertainty will scare and force most to be status quo.

One situation to watch closely is Houston. I've been saying Tillman was over his head financially since he became an owner. He was afraid to go into the tax and every move they have made has had financial savings at its heart. Now his business is getting buried... he's begging the Prez for money... he's taking out high interest loans... he has two star players that make $40M+ I think there is a possibility they do a partial tear down selling one star off or maybe both if things don't recover. .