Following Potential 2020 draftees

[Game6Conley]

I like Givony. Vecenie has clear opinions that he articulates very well, but his projections sometimes really miss the mark.

Are Givony's personal opinions really fully reflected in his mocks/best available lists though? I feel like you can tell that answers no just by watching the updates on the mocks..


Jalen Smith would be a good example this year... Why now, months after the games have ended, has he skyrocketed from outside of their top60 to into their top30?? Was it some change of heart? that sounds like major bs to me..

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Players in the top 10 range of the draft who would be great on the Jazz (out of reach): Edwards, Okoro, Hayes, Haliburton, Toppin
Players in the 11 - 20 range who could be great on the Jazz (a few somewhat realistic trade-up targets): Vassell, Hampton, Nesmith, Williams, Pokusevski
Players in the 21 - 25 range who make sense for the Jazz (guys who you'd expect they'd draft): Bey, Green, Reed, Bolmaro, Maledon

Players whom I think the Jazz are probably really excited about: Okoro, Toppin, Hampton, Pokusevski, maybe Reed, maybe Bolmaro

Complete wildcard: Jaden McDaniels

 

[SCS]

I fully expect the Jazz to draft a big wing or versatile big with their pick.

This season was a rollercoaster. But I think that their were enough positive signs (especially after the trade for Clarkson) that the Jazz are likely to keep this core group (Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, Bogdanovic, Ingles, O'neale, Clarkson) together and give it one more shot next season in hopes that everything comes together at the right time.

I think that they are still in contention mode. And if that's accurate then the goal of this draft pick will likely be to supplement the roster with something it doesn't have. Because we're going to be limited in free agency. Right now the two things we lack in the rotation are...

1) Athleticism and size on the wing. Which mainly rears it's head on the defensive end. Bogey struggles on D. Royce is an athlete and a defender but at 6'4 he has some issue guarding bigger wings. Joe is limited physically.

And

2) An athletic versatile two way big. Jeff Green was supposed to be the stretch/small ball 5 and it didn't work out. Ed Davis was supposed to provide defense, rebounding, hustle and it didn't work out. Bradley and Niang are each so one dimensional it kinda hurts.

Some guys that I think the Jazz will take a hard look at: Patrick Williams, Precious Achiuwa, Aleksej Pokusevski, Saddiq Bey, Jaden McDaniels, Tyler Bey, Paul Reed, Robert Woodard, Jordan Nwora

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I fully expect the Jazz to draft a big wing or versatile big with their pick.

This season was a rollercoaster. But I think that their were enough positive signs (especially after the trade for Clarkson) that the Jazz are likely to keep this core group (Mitchell, Gobert, Conley, Bogdanovic, Ingles, O'neale, Clarkson) together and give it one more shot next season in hopes that everything comes together at the right time.

I think that they are still in contention mode. And if that's accurate then the goal of this draft pick will likely be to supplement the roster with something it doesn't have. Because we're going to be limited in free agency. Right now the two things we lack in the rotation are...

1) Athleticism and size on the wing. Which mainly rears it's head on the defensive end. Bogey struggles on D. Royce is an athlete and a defender but at 6'4 he has some issue guarding bigger wings. Joe is limited physically.

And

2) An athletic versatile two way big. Jeff Green was supposed to be the stretch/small ball 5 and it didn't work out. Ed Davis was supposed to provide defense, rebounding, hustle and it didn't work out. Bradley and Niang are each so one dimensional it kinda hurts.

Some guys that I think the Jazz will take a hard look at: Patrick Williams, Precious Achiuwa, Aleksej Pokusevski, Saddiq Bey, Jaden McDaniels, Tyler Bey, Paul Reed, Robert Woodard, Jordan Nwora

I don't disagree with this, but Conley has one more year on his deal, Mudiay is likely going to leave this offseason, and Ingles turns 33 next year. It wouldn't surprise me if the Jazz try to find a versatile guard with some size to play next to Mitchell starting a year from now, someone who can share the burden of running the offense. That's why Bolmaro and Maledon also make some sense.

 

[SCS]

I don't disagree with this, but Conley has one more year on his deal, Mudiay is likely going to leave this offseason, and Ingles turns 33 next year. It wouldn't surprise me if the Jazz try to find a versatile guard with some size to play next to Mitchell starting a year from now, someone who can share the burden of running the offense. That's why Bolmaro and Maledon also make some sense.

True. But if that's the approach we're going with then we aren't really trying to contend next year. Because we don't really have another way to fill these holes. Unless we're going to rely on a UFA or a lower end FA to fill the gaps. That didn't really work last year.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

True. But if that's the approach we're going with then we aren't really trying to contend next year. Because we don't really have another way to fill these holes. Unless we're going to rely on a UFA or a lower end FA to fill the gaps. That didn't really work last year.

We've got Brantley and Juwan Morgan who can play some minutes at the 4. It wouldn't take too much to trade for someone like Bobby Portis, Thad Young or Alfarouq Aminu.

It's unlikely a rookie is going to come in and make a difference. Reed has potential, but he needs his shot fixed. If they draft Pokusevski, it's going to be his 3rd year before he makes the rotation, similar to Tony Bradley. I don't think the Jazz want a non-shooter like Precious Achiuwa or Isaiah Stewart.

 

[SCS]

We've got Brantley and Juwan Morgan who can play some minutes at the 4. It wouldn't take too much to trade for someone like Bobby Portis, Thad Young or Alfarouq Aminu.

It's unlikely a rookie is going to come in and make a difference. Reed has potential, but he needs his shot fixed. If they draft Pokusevski, it's going to be his 3rd year before he makes the rotation, similar to Tony Bradley. I don't think the Jazz want a non-shooter like Precious Achiuwa or Isaiah Stewart.

The Jazz refuse to play Brantley or Morgan over Niang or Bradley. It's obvious they don't believe in those guys to be in the rotation.

Portis and Young both make too much for us to trade for without giving up a significant rotation piece and creating a different problem in our rotations.

Aminu... maybe. But no guarantees he's an answer. He's been declining for a few years and will be coming off a major injury.

Although I would agree that a rookie in most instances won't make a difference in year one, I'm pretty sure a versatile big like Reed or Achiuwa would make a difference if given the chance. What Niang and Bradley provide is a pretty low bar to hurdle.

Precious Achiuwa is just as good of a shooter as Leandro Bolmaro lol. So if we're going with the non-shooter argument then I mean I guess we should eliminate him too.

I'm not gonna get hung up on shooting. Obviously the Jazz value shooting. But it's not like every player they draft is going to be a lights out shooter.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The Jazz refuse to play Brantley or Morgan over Niang or Bradley. It's obvious they don't believe in those guys to be in the rotation.

Portis and Young both make too much for us to trade for without giving up a significant rotation piece and creating a different problem in our rotations.

Aminu... maybe. But no guarantees he's an answer. He's been declining for a few years and will be coming off a major injury.

Although I would agree that a rookie in most instances won't make a difference in year one, I'm pretty sure a versatile big like Reed or Achiuwa would make a difference if given the chance. What Niang and Bradley provide is a pretty low bar to hurdle.

Precious Achiuwa is just as good of a shooter as Leandro Bolmaro lol. So if we're going with the non-shooter argument then I mean I guess we should eliminate him too.

I'm not gonna get hung up on shooting. Obviously the Jazz value shooting. But it's not like every player they draft is going to be a lights out shooter.

First of all, both Niang and Bradley are 3rd-year players who have developed into their roles. Niang is a legit shooter and floor spacer, and Bradley is a legit rebounder and roll man. Morgan and Brantley are rookies who are still learning the pro game.

As for shooting at the 4 spot, yes, the Jazz care about it very much. They wouldn't put Royce O'Neale on the floor until he hit 37% on his catch-and-shoot 3s, and obviously the Jazz would prefer to put Niang on the floor than Jeff Green, in large part because Niang shoots.

Achiuwa hasn't shown either the shooting or, more importantly, the ball skills to play out on the floor. His best role is at the 5, and he really showed out in Memphis after Wiseman was disqualified. On the Jazz, that means he's a backup energy big behind Gobert, something the Jazz don't really need. I don't think the Jazz are going to draft him. With Reed there's at least more potential for him to be a versatile two-way player, if they can fix the hitch in his shot.

 

[Game6Conley]

Reports swirling that the Warriors will take Edwards #1 if they win the lotto..


Then it stands to reason their FA target would be Marc Gasol...

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Reports swirling that the Warriors will take Edwards #1 if they win the lotto..

Then it stands to reason their FA target would be Marc Gasol...

You think Gasol will sign for the mid-level?

 

[Game6Conley]

 

[SCS]

First of all, both Niang and Bradley are 3rd-year players who have developed into their roles. Niang is a legit shooter and floor spacer, and Bradley is a legit rebounder and roll man. Morgan and Brantley are rookies who are still learning the pro game.

As for shooting at the 4 spot, yes, the Jazz care about it very much. They wouldn't put Royce O'Neale on the floor until he hit 37% on his catch-and-shoot 3s, and obviously the Jazz would prefer to put Niang on the floor than Jeff Green, in large part because Niang shoots.

Achiuwa hasn't shown either the shooting or, more importantly, the ball skills to play out on the floor. His best role is at the 5, and he really showed out in Memphis after Wiseman was disqualified. On the Jazz, that means he's a backup energy big behind Gobert, something the Jazz don't really need. I don't think the Jazz are going to draft him. With Reed there's at least more potential for him to be a versatile two-way player, if they can fix the hitch in his shot.

Both Niang and Bradley had awful stretches that really hurt us. The fact that Brantley and Morgan didn't get any run at all when our backup bigs struggled pretty much all season says a LOT about how the team feels about them. Yeah they are rookies without defined roles yet. But they didn't even get a look when our bench was nightmarish. Not even a one or two game "**** it" let's try this.

Like I said, obviously they value shooting. But I think you're too focused on shooting. Just because they value it doesn't mean every player they draft will have that skill.

I think you are underrating Achiuwa's ball skills. He has shown the ability to grab a rebound and take it from end of the floor to the other himself. He can face up and drive. He's shown some vision. It's just a raw unharnessed offensive package. The template is good.

Also you are VERY wrong when you say that we don't need an energy big. Thats exactly what we need. Some Jazz stats from this season....

3 point % - 1st in the NBA

^^^^ Every key player involved in making us #1 should be back next season.

Offensive Rebounds - 26th in the NBA
Rebounds - 13th in the NBA
Steals - 30th in the NBA
Blocks - 29th in the NBA
Field Goal Attempts per game - 29th in the NBA

Hell let's assume you are right and Achiuwa is just a 5 (I disagree, I think he's more versatile, but let's say he is). I think having him on the floor as the backup 5 instead of Bradley makes Niang more viable. He would cover Niangs weaknesses better than Bradley. Bradley is just a drop big whereas Achiuwa can guard different positions allowing the Jazz to more easily hide Niangs shortcomings defensively. Achiuwa would also create more turnovers than Bradley is leading to more breaks and easier offense. He'd be a better passer. The Jazz could experiment with more 5 out stuff and give shooters even more space.

See the great thing about drafting an Achiuwa or Reed IMO is that it gives our rotations more flexibility. Quin has different play style options. You're looking at it as less shooting. I'm looking at it as the shooting is still there but there's also a new element to what we can do. All the stuff the Jazz had this season would still be available to them.

 

[SCS]

So some interesting possible UDFA's

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Both Niang and Bradley had awful stretches that really hurt us. The fact that Brantley and Morgan didn't get any run at all when our backup bigs struggled pretty much all season says a LOT about how the team feels about them. Yeah they are rookies without defined roles yet. But they didn't even get a look when our bench was nightmarish. Not even a one or two game "**** it" let's try this.

Like I said, obviously they value shooting. But I think you're too focused on shooting. Just because they value it doesn't mean every player they draft will have that skill.

I think you are underrating Achiuwa's ball skills. He has shown the ability to grab a rebound and take it from end of the floor to the other himself. He can face up and drive. He's shown some vision. It's just a raw unharnessed offensive package. The template is good.

Also you are VERY wrong when you say that we don't need an energy big. Thats exactly what we need. Some Jazz stats from this season....

3 point % - 1st in the NBA

^^^^ Every key player involved in making us #1 should be back next season.

Offensive Rebounds - 26th in the NBA
Rebounds - 13th in the NBA
Steals - 30th in the NBA
Blocks - 29th in the NBA
Field Goal Attempts per game - 29th in the NBA

Hell let's assume you are right and Achiuwa is just a 5 (I disagree, I think he's more versatile, but let's say he is). I think having him on the floor as the backup 5 instead of Bradley makes Niang more viable. He would cover Niangs weaknesses better than Bradley. Bradley is just a drop big whereas Achiuwa can guard different positions allowing the Jazz to more easily hide Niangs shortcomings defensively. Achiuwa would also create more turnovers than Bradley is leading to more breaks and easier offense. He'd be a better passer. The Jazz could experiment with more 5 out stuff and give shooters even more space.

See the great thing about drafting an Achiuwa or Reed IMO is that it gives our rotations more flexibility. Quin has different play style options. You're looking at it as less shooting. I'm looking at it as the shooting is still there but there's also a new element to what we can do. All the stuff the Jazz had this season would still be available to them.

If the Jazz stay at #23 or #24 in the draft, I think they're very likely to draft one of -- Maledon, Bolmaro, McDaniels or Josh Green. I could even see them shocking everyone and taking Elijah Hughes. Maybe someone unexpected will drop.

I agree that the Jazz do need more size, length and toughness, but a backup 5 is one of the easiest and least expensive positions to fill through free agency.

Maybe Achiuwa will develop more skills. Until he does, he's pretty much a better version of Jordan Hill, imo, and I don't think the Jazz would make him a priority.

I can see the appeal of Reed, if and only if the Jazz think they can fix and improve his shooting. If Reed can't improve his shooting, then he becomes a somewhat better version of Mo Harkless.

At that point, Tyler Bey might also enter the discussion.

I really don't think the Jazz are going to put someone on the floor who doesn't need to be guarded. They've fought that battle with Favors and Rubio, and it isn't ideal.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If you were to ask me which of the following bigs could play effective minutes at the 4, with the options being Isaiah Stewart, Precious Achiuwa, Vernon Carey, Jalen Smith and Reggie Perry, I think the best answer might be Perry.

He's 6'9" 250 lbs., 7'+ wingspan (Horford measurables), and seems to have enough handle, body control, passing ability and shooting touch that he might be able to play meaningful minutes at the 4. The only question would be his ability to guard switches, but I think he can do that better than Carey and Smith at a minimum.

I'm going through his stats and some of his tape, and he looks like he could be a value-pick version of Al Horford. At a minimum, his SEC stats as a sophomore easily compare with Grant Williams. His NBA Combine athleticism numbers from last year eclipse Williams' as well. Like Williams, he's the SEC POTY.

He might be a decent solution for a versatile 4/5.

 

[Game6Conley]

I gotta say to me the biggest storyline in this draft does sit at the top, and usually im one of the big advocates for the lesser tiers of the draft and that sort of thing.


It's 'the James Wiseman smear campaign'... Is there really any legs to this? How founded is all this in reality? We'll see I guess, still I'm tracking the story very closesly(have been a big Wiseman fan for many years) and trying to get a good read on it..


We've fully entered stasis on this story tho with the covid situation.. and I guess I'll just ask this question again too, just how tall is he? cuz if he's 7'1" some of the criticisms being commonly thrown around are gonna look awfuly picky / hypercritical

 

[Game6Conley]

If you were to ask me which of the following bigs could play effective minutes at the 4, with the options being Isaiah Stewart, Precious Achiuwa, Vernon Carey, Jalen Smith and Reggie Perry, I think the best answer might be Perry.

He's 6'9" 250 lbs., 7'+ wingspan (Horford measurables), and seems to have enough handle, body control, passing ability and shooting touch that he might be able to play meaningful minutes at the 4. The only question would be his ability to guard switches, but I think he can do that better than Carey and Smith at a minimum.

I'm going through his stats and some of his tape, and he looks like he could be a value-pick version of Al Horford. At a minimum, his SEC stats as a sophomore easily compare with Grant Williams. His NBA Combine athleticism numbers from last year eclipse Williams' as well. Like Williams, he's the SEC POTY.

He might be a decent solution for a versatile 4/5.

I think your take on Perry is pretty good. I think your underating Precious and Jalen Smith though.

Jalen Smith is a playerthat should probably get more hype here. If Utah thinks he can eventually be a match with the defense, he could be a pretty high reward pick this late in the draft

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think your take on Perry is pretty good. I think your underating Precious and Jalen Smith though.

Jalen Smith is a playerthat should probably get more hype here. If Utah thinks he can eventually be a match with the defense, he could be a pretty high reward pick this late in the draft

I think Smith is a lot like Thomas Bryant. Smith doesn't have the same wingspan as Bryant, but he rebounds a bit better and makes more effort on defense. That could be a pretty successful player at the 5. The question is whether he can add strength to his base and whether he can guard in space at an NBA level without getting blown by.

 

[SCS]

If the Jazz stay at #23 or #24 in the draft, I think they're very likely to draft one of -- Maledon, Bolmaro, McDaniels or Josh Green. I could even see them shocking everyone and taking Elijah Hughes. Maybe someone unexpected will drop.

I agree that the Jazz do need more size, length and toughness, but a backup 5 is one of the easiest and least expensive positions to fill through free agency.

Maybe Achiuwa will develop more skills. Until he does, he's pretty much a better version of Jordan Hill, imo, and I don't think the Jazz would make him a priority.

I can see the appeal of Reed, if and only if the Jazz think they can fix and improve his shooting. If Reed can't improve his shooting, then he becomes a somewhat better version of Mo Harkless.

At that point, Tyler Bey might also enter the discussion.

I really don't think the Jazz are going to put someone on the floor who doesn't need to be guarded. They've fought that battle with Favors and Rubio, and it isn't ideal.

Bolmaro and McDaniels are total projects. Bolmaro literally has no role on an NBA team right now. He has no NBA level skill. You are arguing against Precious because you say Precious can't shoot and advocating for Bolmaro who shoots on a similar level as a GUARD/WING. Bolmaro is a below average NBA athlete. I don't see who he guards in the NBA. He's not going to stay in front of NBA PG's and NBA wings are too physical for him. He doesn't rebound... at all. The only thing to get excited about is his creative handle and flashy passing and that didn't even yield results in a lower level of basketball overseas. He had a damn near 1 to 1 assist/turnover ratio. He is going to struggle getting to the rim. He doesn't draw fouls. What does he do? Why is an NBA team ever going to put him on the floor? He is going to have to improve several skills just to be rotation guy. Just to fit a role. McDaniels is intriguing because of his physical profile. But he totally feels like one of those guys who killed high school competition because he was bigger than the competition. A man amongst boys. Then he got to college and realized the script was flipped. It really stood out to me when I broke down tape of his drives. They are almost all straight line into defenders. He tries to go through/over defenders like he's in high school still. He didn't really show a bag. His shot selection is poor. His passing and vision is terrible. His shot is kinda slow. He does show some weakside defense but overall I don't see much there to get excited about. He doesn't have a role in the NBA either. Furthermore there are big questions about attitude with him which the Jazz may not like.

Good NBA players play well before they get to the NBA. They just do. These guys didn't. People are falling in love with the IDEA of what they could magically become and ignoring the reality of how far away they are.

I like Josh Green. I don't think that he'll be available when the Jazz pick.

Maledon I'm kind of indifferent on. He does a lot of things okay. But he doesn't stand out in any significant way. There are a lot of guards I like a lot more.

I like Reed too. We've gone over that.

I like Bey (not as much as Achiuwa or Reed) and I could definitely see the Jazz having some interest.

Precious Achiuwa is nothing like Jordan Hill. At all. Jordan Hill literally never took a 3 in college over 3 seasons. Achiuwa was averaging 32% on 1.3 attempts per as a freshman. Achiuwa was a better rebounder, on ball defender, weakside defender as a freshman than Jordan Hill was as a Junior. And he got to the line far more often because unlike Jordan Hill he can actually faceup and take guys off the bounce.

The days of Favors and Rubio and no spacing are dead. I don't know why you keep going back to that. We have 3-4 shooters on the floor minimum at all times now. That won't change no matter who we draft.

 

[SCS]

On average only around 20 players in each draft actually become NBA rotation players. Only around 5 of those 20 become All Stars. So figuring out which 20 players will translate in a given year is the key to success. I'm willing to bet Achiuwa is one of those 20. Why? He's one of the best athletes in the class. He's one of the best rebounders in the class (always a great indicator). Multipositional defender, can guard 3-5, valuable skill. High motor.

I'm just gonna leave the topic there though. I want to move on to some other names.