Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[KqWIN]

man, the way Fears is consistently getting to the line, even being a short guy with questionable long range shooting, if he keeps playing like this, it would be hard to pass on him in that 6-8 range. either way, mfer is becoming a must watch.

i also didn't realize he was such a young frosh. in between ace bailey and cooper flagg in terms of age.

I'd agree that his jumper is somewhat questionable, but even then he has some good indicators. 86% from the line and decent three point volume. 34% with half of those makes being assisted isn't the worst to begin with. Ironically, if he wasn't so good at getting to the basket he'd probably have a lot more three point volume. So far no one has been able to contain him. He certainly has top 6-8 production given his age, time will tell if he can keep it up.

 

[KqWIN]

Just for reference, the best players drafted from 20 and on in recent drafts. Listing out starterish level players and above. Comes out to about 3 per year. Anything stick out?


2018
Allen (21)
Simons (24)
Williams (27)

2019
Poole (28)
Johnson (29)

2020
Maxey (21)
Quickley (25)
Pritchard (26)
McDaniels (28)
Bane (30)

2021
Johnson (20)
Thomas (27)
Aldama (30)

2022
Braun (21)
Kessler (22)

 

[KqWIN]

Just for reference, the best players drafted from 20 and on in recent drafts. Listing out starterish level players and above. Comes out to about 3 per year. Anything stick out?


2018
Allen (21)
Simons (24)
Williams (27)

2019
Poole (28)
Johnson (29)

2020
Maxey (21)
Quickley (25)
Pritchard (26)
McDaniels (28)
Bane (30)

2021
Johnson (20)
Thomas (27)
Aldama (30)

2022
Braun (21)
Kessler (22)

Just some quick associations that pop up in my head.

- Almost half of these guys are guys you might consider "small guards"
- No taller guards, no defensive minded ball handlers
- The wings (Braun, McDaniels, Johnson) don't share much commonality in playstyle, but all are very high motor/physical athletes
- No unathletic success stories on the wing
- Both 4's are point forward types (Johnson, Aldma)
- Both C's are traditional roll/cut + rim protecting bigs

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If we have too many small guards, get rid of the ones who aren't good enough. We should not compromise our draft pick for those two. I've said this many times and I'll say it again, how much worse of a prospect are you willing to draft because of Key/Sexton? The answer for me is none. I want us to pick who we think is the best guy and give those two zero consideration.

I don't care about "hard sell". It's just dumb draft strategy to let players of that quality effect such a massive decision. We don't even know if Key is NBA level yet. It shouldn't be a hard sell.

I get it... but we already saw a poster say "another small guard". They may not care at all what the fanbase thinks and probably shouldn't.

I also agree. Its just an abundant player type unless they are one of THE ONES... like if he's Fox, Dame, Don, or Kyrie I can't see us zeroing in on him if we land 3 or 4.

I guess I think he has to sell me a little extra hard if I am the Jazz. Part of that might be based on past couple years. If we pawn of Sexton (who is one of the guys he comps to) and lost faith in Lisan Al Gaib... then we really gonna invest in a smallish guard with our draft pick we earned through tanking our dicks off?

Hopefully all the guys in the 3-10 ish range all stay healthy and give us a bigger sample to judge them all.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Just for reference, the best players drafted from 20 and on in recent drafts. Listing out starterish level players and above. Comes out to about 3 per year. Anything stick out?


2018
Allen (21)
Simons (24)
Williams (27)

2019
Poole (28)
Johnson (29)

2020
Maxey (21)
Quickley (25)
Pritchard (26)
McDaniels (28)
Bane (30)

2021
Johnson (20)
Thomas (27)
Aldama (30)

2022
Braun (21)
Kessler (22)

If you expand out into the 30s you also land Brunson, Claxton, Herb Jones, Nembhard, Dosunmu, Miles McBride

IDK some older prospects, lots of small guards, Is this the case to draft those types later or saying they should be drafted in the top 10.

 

[KqWIN]

I get it... but we already saw a poster say "another small guard". They may not care at all what the fanbase thinks and probably shouldn't.

I also agree. Its just an abundant player type unless they are one of THE ONES... like if he's Fox, Dame, Don, or Kyrie I can't see us zeroing in on him if we land 3 or 4.

I guess I think he has to sell me a little extra hard if I am the Jazz. Part of that might be based on past couple years. If we pawn of Sexton (who is one of the guys he comps to) and lost faith in Lisan Al Gaib... then we really gonna invest in a smallish guard with our draft pick we earned through tanking our dicks off?

Hopefully all the guys in the 3-10 ish range all stay healthy and give us a bigger sample to judge them all.

As far as I'm concerned, it's not another small guard because we don't have a small guard that's a building piece. Even if we had one, I'd still say we should draft the guy we think is best.

Remember when Vlade didn't want Luka because they had Fox? How horrible it would have been for them to have two franchise guards. Nightmare situation to have two guys that are really good so just avoid it even when you have zero....right? It was terrible when they got Hali and couldn't play him with Fox. No, that's terrible thinking. If you have two players you truly cannot separate, then you can start to think about that. But if you pass on a guy who you think is a better prospect for Key or Sexton it is incredibly idiotic. If DA feels that way, I'd say it is as stupid as his failed plans were.

 

[KqWIN]

If you expand out into the 30s you also land Brunson, Claxton, Herb Jones, Nembhard, Dosunmu, Miles McBride

IDK some older prospects, lots of small guards, Is this the case to draft those types later or saying they should be drafted in the top 10.

I get what you're saying. You can set the arbitrary limits wherever you want, but I chose 20-30 because we'll likely have two picks in that range and you have to draw the line at some point and say that these prospects drafted here were considered better than those prospects later. Anyone can feel free to expand the range however they want though. Just trying to find some patterns of success for our MIN and CLE picks.

When looking for steals, I think it's interesting to think about why a player wasn't drafted higher. Lots of smaller guards, older players, and raw bigs is typically what I remember seeing over the years. Very few GG Jackson types that hit, and when they do it's usually more as a role player. As far as skills/attributes, not sure it's groundbreaking but anyone that can shoot is much more likely to hit and I'd say something similar about having a high motor.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

As far as I'm concerned, it's not another small guard because we don't have a small guard that's a building piece. Even if we had one, I'd still say we should draft the guy we think is best.

Remember when Vlade didn't want Luka because they had Fox? How horrible it would have been for them to have two franchise guards. Nightmare situation to have two guys that are really good so just avoid it even when you have zero....right? No, that's terrible thinking. If you have two players you truly cannot separate, then you can start to think about that. But if you pass on a guy who you think is a better prospect for Key or Sexton it is incredibly idiotic. If DA feels that way, I'd say it is as stupid as his failed plans were.

I don't disagree. I think Fears will have to be head and shoulders above the others in that group though to make the investment. If its not us having "another small guard" per se I just think we tend to see an abundance of those types in the league and they aren't always the easiest to make the roster work.

But lets ignore the sunk costs or small guard history here and just look at what you setup as kind of a trend. It seems like there are a lot of these types of guys out there and I would factor that in. Even in this draft you have Boogie/Philon who might be there in the late teens early 20s... McCain last year... Bub Carrington too (maybe?). I just think they might have some small guard fatigue and opt to go for Egor/Kas if all are available. Unless Fears really separates himself (which he might).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I get what you're saying. You can set the arbitrary limits wherever you want, but I chose 20-30 because we'll likely have two picks in that range and you have to draw the line at some point and say that these prospects drafted here were considered better than those prospects later. Anyone can feel free to expand the range however they want though. Just trying to find some patterns of success for our MIN and CLE picks.

When looking for steals, I think it's interesting to think about why a player wasn't drafted higher. Lots of smaller guards, older players, and raw bigs is typically what I remember seeing over the years. Very few GG Jackson types that hit, and when they do it's usually more as a role player. As far as skills/attributes, not sure it's groundbreaking but anyone that can shoot is much more likely to hit and I'd say something similar about having a high motor.

Expanding didn't hurt your themes obviously since Brunson gets in there too. Was just curious if that's what you were doing.

In the teens to end of the first I think that's fair assessment. Lots of centers and combo guards found there that were big wins. Some older guys too.

 

[KqWIN]

I don't disagree. I think Fears will have to be head and shoulders above the others in that group though to make the investment. If its not us having "another small guard" per se I just think we tend to see an abundance of those types in the league and they aren't always the easiest to make the roster work.

But lets ignore the sunk costs or small guard history here and just look at what you setup as kind of a trend. It seems like there are a lot of these types of guys out there and I would factor that in. Even in this draft you have Boogie/Philon who might be there in the late teens early 20s... McCain last year... Bub Carrington too (maybe?). I just think they might have some small guard fatigue and opt to go for Egor/Kas if all are available. Unless Fears really separates himself (which he might).

To your second point, I'd say that is part of evaluation of the player itself. I've got no problem with thinking about how a player fits into the league and it definitely should be part of the consideration. But playing next to Key/Sexton cannot be a part of this decision making process.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

To your second point, I'd say that is part of evaluation of the player itself. I've got no problem with thinking about how a player fits into the league and it definitely should be part of the consideration. But playing next to Key/Sexton cannot be a part of this decision making process.

Agree. It wasn't so much playing next to those guys as you might think "we have that at home" type of thing. Key is up in the air on what he is. I'm going to die on the "Sexton is better than how they treat him" Hill and I do think they move him at some point.

I've got some small guard fatigue as well lol. Itd be nice to have Kas or Egor even if they aren't providing a lot more defensive versatility like prime Lonzo would have. Fears looks pretty interesting. If we find a way to move up into the 7-14 range with the Minny pick (likely through trade) I might be more enthused with him.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

At first glance, Fears looked like a Jordan Poole/Jordan Clarkson-type volume scorer who could come in and light things up off the bench. Maybe he's more than that.

I don't have a problem with him being a lottery pick, but I don't think he's a target for the Jazz at the top of the draft.