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Help me out.... Butler’s health concerns


Handlogten's Heros

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I'd say that the issue of health prognostication is a lot like talent prognostication. Everyone familiar with the draft has enough experiencing in seeing how some "sure things" never pan out (and not infrequently) and how other guys on nobody's radar end up with solid careers. For those younger or newer to the draft, they may view pre-draft prognostication as a much more sure thing that what it is in reality, and for people who haven't had as much go around in this (I'm talking about fans), it creates a lot of rabid animosity surrounding something so uncertain. The executives all have (or should have) the pie-in-the-sky beaten out of them and have a much more grounded and realistic understanding of the uncertainty you're dealing with. But the medical side of this is where they enter into another realm where they have little context and experience and end up, in a way, reverting back to how a draft novice would approach prognostication from the basketball side, and may become much more black and white in their thinking. Health is obvious an important thing that you need to obviously look at, and in a number of circumstances there legitimately are the red flags there that are almost certain to be issues later down the road. But for a lot of other scenarios, the issues need to be considered but in conjunction with a healthy dose of agnosticism to keep things grounded, and not be the health-prognosticating equivalent of that 18 year old who just started following the draft. Harder to do without that requisite experience, but resisting the wind blowing from allowing what others are doing to influence your assessment can give one an advantage in many scenarios (and can hurt them in others).

tl;dr draft prognostication of basketball and draft prognostication of health are similar, with very few certainties. We're obviously much more acquainted with the basketball side and acknowledge the uncertainties, whereas earlier on in ones experience they may not be. On the health side the way we often behave is more on the inexperienced side and we fail to grasp the uncertainties and weigh them too heavily (whichever side it may be on).
Right... and there are a lot of reasons guys fail... this is just one. I can't think of many guys where it was just the flagged health issue that made them fail.. Jonathan Bender is the first name that comes to mind but I'm not sure if he was flagged. The rest of the guys like Perry Jones... they just sucked at basketball. DeJuan Blair had a decent run for a guy picked in his range and I think he had no Meniscus' in his knee. There have been guys like Oden I guess but at the top of the draft I think its something I'd be more cautious with than in the end of the first and second round.

I think I'd have it lower on the list of considerations than most I guess. I think skill, intelligence, size, athleticism, work ethic would all be things I'd put before most types of red flags. The risk tolerance likely shifts somewhere in the late teens where the red flags just don't matter as much to me because its already a pick that is likely to not become a good nba player.
 


Handlogten's Heros

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For me the knee issue would be a bigger concern (not saying I'm concerned because I know nothing about it). Given what we know about the heart issue (which is nothing because we don't even know what it is) it should be a lot more reassuring because whatever the issue is, it's been known about since before his Baylor days and he's been playing. There's nothing huge on that differential that, given his ability to play collegiately, should be too terribly risky at this point. If it were something they discovered after college, then it could be a different story.
Yes... he also played two healthy season with the knee issue as well. Not sure on his medical history but did he have any surgeries in HS? I'd be much more scared of guys that had surgeries in HS like Parker and Zion that I am taking in the top 5/10 picks of the draft.

In the 20s I'd be more concerned with a kid that seemed lazy or had basketball IQ issues than a medical red flag. I'm unqualified but it just seems like if the kid has been fine thus far its something that may get in the way in 5+ years... I can still get some production and test it. Any player can end up getting hurt (see Exum, Dante) later anyway. Injury is always a risk... the red flag just helps you see it and assign some minus points to it.
 

infection

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Right... and there are a lot of reasons guys fail... this is just one. I can't think of many guys where it was just the flagged health issue that made them fail.. Jonathan Bender is the first name that comes to mind but I'm not sure if he was flagged. The rest of the guys like Perry Jones... they just sucked at basketball. DeJuan Blair had a decent run for a guy picked in his range and I think he had no Meniscus' in his knee. There have been guys like Oden I guess but at the top of the draft I think its something I'd be more cautious with than in the end of the first and second round.

I think I'd have it lower on the list of considerations than most I guess. I think skill, intelligence, size, athleticism, work ethic would all be things I'd put before most types of red flags. The risk tolerance likely shifts somewhere in the late teens where the red flags just don't matter as much to me because its already a pick that is likely to not become a good nba player.
Jonathan Bender went 5. Was he supposed to go higher? Or are you talking about John Bender? Because that guy had a lot of red flags between substance abuse, truancy, an attitude problem, and not being able to finish jokes about naked blondes with poodles and salamis walking into a bar.
 

Handlogten's Heros

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Jonathan Bender went 5. Was he supposed to go higher? Or are you talking about John Bender? Because that guy had a lot of red flags between substance abuse, truancy, an attitude problem, and not being able to finish jokes about naked blondes with poodles and salamis walking into a bar.
The first guy. He flamed out solely because of health issues I believe. I guess you could say Oden did too, but he also didn't seem to like playing basketball. Parker had non-injury struggles too.
 

Jazzman12

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I too haven’t followed his heart condition as closely as I should. Is there any chance Butler pulls a Reggie Lewis on us?
 

candrew

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I too haven’t followed his heart condition as closely as I should. Is there any chance Butler pulls a Reggie Lewis on us?

Gonna guess Jared doesn't have a coke habit we don't know about.

Just going on memory but l remember Lewis went doctor shopping until he found one that would clear him to play.

The process that was used to evaluate Butler's condition appeared to be a bit more legit.
 

NAOS

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Gonna guess Jared doesn't have a coke habit we don't know about.

Just going on memory but l remember Lewis went doctor shopping until he found one that would clear him to play.

The process that was used to evaluate Butler's condition appeared to be a bit more legit.
*Jarod
 

LogGrad98

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Jonathan Bender went 5. Was he supposed to go higher? Or are you talking about John Bender? Because that guy had a lot of red flags between substance abuse, truancy, an attitude problem, and not being able to finish jokes about naked blondes with poodles and salamis walking into a bar.
I just heard it was a banner year in the Bender household. Johnny got a carton of cigarettes and everything. Tough thing is he spilled paint in the garage, and you know what you get for that.
 

TheGoldStandard

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I think they may have had an agreement pre-draft to slide back but who knows. It was odd to move back with "your guy" on the board just to get another second rounder that you'll flip for tax savings. By all accounts the draft room "erupted" when Butler was still on the board.

Otherwise i think it was slightly short-sighted because you would have loved to have Butler on a small 4 year deal (if he works out and you have faith in him).
If you believe that hype I have a bridge to sell you. Jazz wouldn't risk 9 other teams having a chance to pick "your guy" off the board. It was a no brainer when he was still there at 40.

If you think the talent is there, you want the long-term lock-up a 1st rd pick gives you.

It was the right "spin" by the Jazz to say that, especially because many apparently believed it.
 

Handlogten's Heros

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If you believe that hype I have a bridge to sell you. Jazz wouldn't risk 9 other teams having a chance to pick "your guy" off the board. It was a no brainer when he was still there at 40.

If you think the talent is there, you want the long-term lock-up a 1st rd pick gives you.

It was the right "spin" by the Jazz to say that, especially because many apparently believed it.
That's basically what I was saying... you don't **** around for a second round pick if that is your guy. So either they liked him but weren't sure or had a deal in place pre-draft they needed to honor. In one scenario the hype they sell might be true... in the other it is overstated. I don't think anyone's intel is good enough to know what will happen in between picks 30 and 40 to know the guy they were targeting would be there.

I damn near had a panic attack in the draft thread when they passed on him the first time. I think its plausible they thought he'd already be gone and had a deal in place with Memphis (or whoever it was) to move back and got lucky. Its much more likely they liked him and 3-4 other dudes and were willing to get an asset and take whatever was left. Jared may have been the preference... then you have to sell it after (as you pointed out). Like you wouldn't tell your prom date there were 3-4 other girls you'd be just as happy taking to the dance... It was always you and only you baby... even though I waited until a week before the dance to ask.
 

fishonjazz

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This scenario has happened before... sometimes the player becomes Malcolm Brogdon and sometimes they become Perry Jones... Kevon Looney also had a hip issue that had him slide.

I don't think it has to be super serious for teams to get spooked. I think it is an uphill battle for guys to make it in the league and they see one thing that could derail them even if they overcome all the other stuff and write the player off their board. I think there is an inefficiency we took advantage of and I think it will pay off.
didn't michael porter jr have some big issue as well?
 

Handlogten's Heros

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didn't michael porter jr have some big issue as well?
Good call… yes… terrible back issues. He was a consensus top 5 pick. I’d say gambling on guys that dropped because of medical red flags has paid off more often than not.
 

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