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Help me out.... Butler’s health concerns


NAOS

Well-Known Member
Can we have a brief discussion about

(a) what is firmly known
and
(b) what we think we know
?

I’ve been paying too little attention to have this story straight. Would appreciate the help.

Tia.
 


infection

Well-Known Member
Staff member
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
(a)
Some "knee issue" and some "heart issue."
(b)
My hopeful thinking of what I think I know (not specific to anything but more generally) is that a lot of executives without appropriate medical context got spooked, and as everyone else got spooked, the coalescence of many other executives without appropriate medical context being spooked helped reinforce the group think on "there must be something wrong, we are smart to dodge it because everyone else is dodging it."
 

framer

Well-Known Member
(a)
Some "knee issue" and some "heart issue."
(b)
My hopeful thinking of what I think I know (not specific to anything but more generally) is that a lot of executives without appropriate medical context got spooked, and as everyone else got spooked, the coalescence of many other executives without appropriate medical context being spooked helped reinforce the group think on "there must be something wrong, we are smart to dodge it because everyone else is dodging it."
I mean the Jazz even dodged him as long as they possibly could.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
2020-21 Award Winner
(a)
Some "knee issue" and some "heart issue."
(b)
My hopeful thinking of what I think I know (not specific to anything but more generally) is that a lot of executives without appropriate medical context got spooked, and as everyone else got spooked, the coalescence of many other executives without appropriate medical context being spooked helped reinforce the group think on "there must be something wrong, we are smart to dodge it because everyone else is dodging it."
This scenario has happened before... sometimes the player becomes Malcolm Brogdon and sometimes they become Perry Jones... Kevon Looney also had a hip issue that had him slide.

I don't think it has to be super serious for teams to get spooked. I think it is an uphill battle for guys to make it in the league and they see one thing that could derail them even if they overcome all the other stuff and write the player off their board. I think there is an inefficiency we took advantage of and I think it will pay off.
 

KqWIN

Well-Known Member
This scenario has happened before... sometimes the player becomes Malcolm Brogdon and sometimes they become Perry Jones... Kevon Looney also had a hip issue that had him slide.

I don't think it has to be super serious for teams to get spooked. I think it is an uphill battle for guys to make it in the league and they see one thing that could derail them even if they overcome all the other stuff and write the player off their board. I think there is an inefficiency we took advantage of and I think it will pay off.

I can't recall someone having two medical red flags. They are completely unrelated to each other, but it's not hard to see why he dropped. Especially in a covid year. I don't think individual teams were able to do their own medical testing.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
2020-21 Award Winner
I mean the Jazz even dodged him as long as they possibly could.
I think they may have had an agreement pre-draft to slide back but who knows. It was odd to move back with "your guy" on the board just to get another second rounder that you'll flip for tax savings. By all accounts the draft room "erupted" when Butler was still on the board.

Otherwise i think it was slightly short-sighted because you would have loved to have Butler on a small 4 year deal (if he works out and you have faith in him).
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
2020-21 Award Winner
I can't recall someone having two medical red flags. They are completely unrelated to each other, but it's not hard to see why he dropped. Especially in a covid year. I don't think individual teams were able to do their own medical testing.
I'm not sure what the knee issue is but I think that type of red flag is common. The heart thing is likely the one that scared more people because it might be a Bosh type of thing where he just flat out can't play.

I can't recall anyone with two red flags either... if the heart is good I think the knee issue isn't one to worry about too much early in his career. If he ends up having issues I think its later in his career.
 

infection

Well-Known Member
Staff member
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
This scenario has happened before... sometimes the player becomes Malcolm Brogdon and sometimes they become Perry Jones... Kevon Looney also had a hip issue that had him slide.

I don't think it has to be super serious for teams to get spooked. I think it is an uphill battle for guys to make it in the league and they see one thing that could derail them even if they overcome all the other stuff and write the player off their board. I think there is an inefficiency we took advantage of and I think it will pay off.
I'd say that the issue of health prognostication is a lot like talent prognostication. Everyone familiar with the draft has enough experiencing in seeing how some "sure things" never pan out (and not infrequently) and how other guys on nobody's radar end up with solid careers. For those younger or newer to the draft, they may view pre-draft prognostication as a much more sure thing that what it is in reality, and for people who haven't had as much go around in this (I'm talking about fans), it creates a lot of rabid animosity surrounding something so uncertain. The executives all have (or should have) the pie-in-the-sky beaten out of them and have a much more grounded and realistic understanding of the uncertainty you're dealing with. But the medical side of this is where they enter into another realm where they have little context and experience and end up, in a way, reverting back to how a draft novice would approach prognostication from the basketball side, and may become much more black and white in their thinking. Health is obvious an important thing that you need to obviously look at, and in a number of circumstances there legitimately are the red flags there that are almost certain to be issues later down the road. But for a lot of other scenarios, the issues need to be considered but in conjunction with a healthy dose of agnosticism to keep things grounded, and not be the health-prognosticating equivalent of that 18 year old who just started following the draft. Harder to do without that requisite experience, but resisting the wind blowing from allowing what others are doing to influence your assessment can give one an advantage in many scenarios (and can hurt them in others).

tl;dr draft prognostication of basketball and draft prognostication of health are similar, with very few certainties. We're obviously much more acquainted with the basketball side and acknowledge the uncertainties, whereas earlier on in ones experience they may not be. On the health side the way we often behave is more on the inexperienced side and we fail to grasp the uncertainties and weigh them too heavily (whichever side it may be on).
 

infection

Well-Known Member
Staff member
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
I'm not sure what the knee issue is but I think that type of red flag is common. The heart thing is likely the one that scared more people because it might be a Bosh type of thing where he just flat out can't play.

I can't recall anyone with two red flags either... if the heart is good I think the knee issue isn't one to worry about too much early in his career. If he ends up having issues I think its later in his career.
For me the knee issue would be a bigger concern (not saying I'm concerned because I know nothing about it). Given what we know about the heart issue (which is nothing because we don't even know what it is) it should be a lot more reassuring because whatever the issue is, it's been known about since before his Baylor days and he's been playing. There's nothing huge on that differential that, given his ability to play collegiately, should be too terribly risky at this point. If it were something they discovered after college, then it could be a different story.
 

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