Jackpotting Around -Tony Jones Edition

[Tremendous Upside]

The list of teams that would be willing to go "all-in" for Lauri don't exist. He's having a fine season, but more of a "not quite all-star season, maybe the 40th best player in the NBA" while having zero playoff experience to show if he can defend in the postseason.

The man is averaging 28 ppg in the NBA. No team would be getting him to "defend in the postseason".

Anyway, individually he's a neutral defender. Not great, not terrible. He'd do just fine in the playoffs. Right now, he's surrounded by some of the most atrocious defensive players the NBA has ever seen. Keyonte, Collier and Love are all in the bottom six of Defensive EPM. Key is now the worst. To quote Ron Burgundy – I'm not even mad, that's amazing.

Meanwhile, this is his third straight year being part of a bottom 2 defense. The Pistons would probably give up Ron Holland and 1-2 firsts for Lauri, but no one is doing major offers with how much uncertainty Lauri brings.

On the contrary. He's one of the "sure things" in the NBA. What you see is what you get.

 

[KqWIN]

I have the answer here. Pretty definitively. The contract issue is big... but not just that they didn't sign him but that they refused to negotiate. They would not even give him an idea of what they would offer if the cap space play wasn't available. Outside of that:

- The LA stuff is real. Walker wants to win. Jazz seem less sold on Walker... so he likely was excited by that opportunity to play and utilize his skillset as a roll man to its fullest extent.
- The Jazz don't like that Walker works out with his own people and doesn't stay in Utah all summer. Walk has his people and wants to utilize them. This is petty.
- They want him to do all the garbage work. He's cool with that but his numbers suffer because our PG play is less than optimal... that's okay as long as you pay him.
- They wanted him to improve guarding on the perimeter... he did... but the scheme isn't a perfect fit.
- He feels they painted him as a bit weak with the "Walker takes losing the hardest, Walker is his biggest critic" type stuff. He's not weak... he wants to win.
- I think he's had some clashes with Will but nothing that wasn't solved and wasn't more than two guys that want to win banging heads a little.

Here is my take... The Jazz would do very well to make Walker a good fair offer in the 2 week window they have before free agency opens (or whatever it is). They can still keep their cap space because you agree on terms and then execute the contracts in the right order.

They should not tell him to go find his offer... and he may tell them he is going to go out and do it anyway. I think there is also the possibility of a marriage of convenience or sign and trade to a team without space or a team unwilling to send a big contract offer.

My confusion is on why they don't just view him as a long term piece and treat him as such. They have really been wishy washy on him. Its weird.

Don't buy any of the unreasonable demands on his contract stuff. That was always nonsense... Jazz did not negotiate. Full stop.

There is no point to Kessler signing in that two weeks unless he himself is actually sold on the Jazz. Unless the Jazz is all he wants, it would be malpractice for his agent to not seek other offers.

The Jazz would have to play extreme hardball or give him an offer he cannot exist for him to agree at that time.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

My confusion is on why they don't just view him as a long term piece and treat him as such.

This is a soft, moody center who isn't switchable, can't guard out to the perimeter or recover, and can't be trusted in crunch time because of his complete lack of a go-to move in the post and a career 54.5% FT accuracy.

Tell me again why the Jazz should be bidding against themselves?

Kessler is a great backup 5 in this league. One of the best.

 

[KqWIN]

Doubt that the Jazz will be bidding against themselves on Kessler.

 

[Qman]

I have the answer here. Pretty definitively. The contract issue is big... but not just that they didn't sign him but that they refused to negotiate. They would not even give him an idea of what they would offer if the cap space play wasn't available. Outside of that:

- The LA stuff is real. Walker wants to win. Jazz seem less sold on Walker... so he likely was excited by that opportunity to play and utilize his skillset as a roll man to its fullest extent.
- The Jazz don't like that Walker works out with his own people and doesn't stay in Utah all summer. Walk has his people and wants to utilize them. This is petty.
- They want him to do all the garbage work. He's cool with that but his numbers suffer because our PG play is less than optimal... that's okay as long as you pay him.
- They wanted him to improve guarding on the perimeter... he did... but the scheme isn't a perfect fit.
- He feels they painted him as a bit weak with the "Walker takes losing the hardest, Walker is his biggest critic" type stuff. He's not weak... he wants to win.
- I think he's had some clashes with Will but nothing that wasn't solved and wasn't more than two guys that want to win banging heads a little.

Here is my take... The Jazz would do very well to make Walker a good fair offer in the 2 week window they have before free agency opens (or whatever it is). They can still keep their cap space because you agree on terms and then execute the contracts in the right order.

They should not tell him to go find his offer... and he may tell them he is going to go out and do it anyway. I think there is also the possibility of a marriage of convenience or sign and trade to a team without space or a team unwilling to send a big contract offer.

My confusion is on why they don't just view him as a long term piece and treat him as such. They have really been wishy washy on him. Its weird.

Don't buy any of the unreasonable demands on his contract stuff. That was always nonsense... Jazz did not negotiate. Full stop.

I thought was telling that the Jazz were queasy about paying Rudy a large part of the salary cap.

 

[rippimpc]

This is a soft, moody center who isn't switchable, can't guard out to the perimeter or recover, and can't be trusted in crunch time because of his complete lack of a go-to move in the post and a career 54.5% FT accuracy.

Tell me again why the Jazz should be bidding against themselves?

Kessler is a great backup 5 in this league. One of the best.

I think the issue is relationships. Jazz did same thing with Hayward and he never got over it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There is no point to Kessler signing in that two weeks unless he himself is actually sold on the Jazz. Unless the Jazz is all he wants, it would be malpractice for his agent to not seek other offers.

The Jazz would have to play extreme hardball or give him an offer he cannot exist for him to agree at that time.

I think the intent is really important though. I think you may not have to go extremely hard but make an offer he thinks is good enough that he won't get it on the market from a team he wants to play for. You might not say "hey this offer disappears in a week" but you might say here is what we think is fair... if its close lets figure it out. He may already (or should know what's out there) through back channels of course. If the offer doesn't materialize, like it sometimes doesn't, then you may be out a few million. He may also be able to dictate the length and options in that window so that it gives him some certainty and freedom later if its not great.

There is also the "I just want to get this done" factor to things.

I think we had an opportunity to get something in the realm of 25M a year done and maybe get all the favorable terms we want. I think if we come and say 5/125M or nothing this offseason... then he goes out and shops himself. Lakers certainly will offer him a deal in or above that... but we could just match. The real danger is Washington/BKN or another bottom feeder (maybe Charlotte if they clear one contract) making a 4/150-160 offer with less favorable terms. I don't think that happens but its not like a low likelihood.

Washington has like 80M in space or something ridiculous. What are they going to do with that? What young player or players do they think they can add? Sarr already famously sees himself as a 4 so maybe they go huge and make Walk an offer. They can still do everything else they want to do while they wait the couple days.

The more likely scenario is Indiana or LA want to acquire him through sign and trade and we get a first for playing along.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is a soft, moody center who isn't switchable, can't guard out to the perimeter or recover, and can't be trusted in crunch time because of his complete lack of a go-to move in the post and a career 54.5% FT accuracy.

Tell me again why the Jazz should be bidding against themselves?

Kessler is a great backup 5 in this league. One of the best.

LOL... okay. The guy is not soft or moody. He wants to win. He hates what we are doing with the tank. He's competitive.

His game has holes. He's also an elite rim protector and good finisher and moves well for a giant. These players are more in than they have been in the last 15 years.

He isn't perfect but he's not asking to be paid like he is perfect. He's not brainless and realizes that what the org wants is not always best for him. They didn't play really fair with him after asking him to ****ing sit out games while not healthy. He has a lot of reasons to feel like he does. He may still come back and make it work too.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the issue is relationships. Jazz did same thing with Hayward and he never got over it.

Imagine asking a guy to sit as many games as they asked him to sit... and then not negotiating at all on a contract. Total BS.

 

[rippimpc]

Imagine asking a guy to sit as many games as they asked him to sit... and then not negotiating at all on a contract. Total BS.

I mean it’s tantamount to a performance review. How do you feel when your boss doesn’t value you?

 

[KqWIN]

I think the intent is really important though. I think you may not have to go extremely hard but make an offer he thinks is good enough that he won't get it on the market from a team he wants to play for. You might not say "hey this offer disappears in a week" but you might say here is what we think is fair... if its close lets figure it out. He may already (or should know what's out there) through back channels of course. If the offer doesn't materialize, like it sometimes doesn't, then you may be out a few million. He may also be able to dictate the length and options in that window so that it gives him some certainty and freedom later if its not great.

There is also the "I just want to get this done" factor to things.

I think we had an opportunity to get something in the realm of 25M a year done and maybe get all the favorable terms we want. I think if we come and say 5/125M or nothing this offseason... then he goes out and shops himself. Lakers certainly will offer him a deal in or above that... but we could just match. The real danger is Washington/BKN or another bottom feeder (maybe Charlotte if they clear one contract) making a 4/150-160 offer with less favorable terms. I don't think that happens but its not like a low likelihood.

Washington has like 80M in space or something ridiculous. What are they going to do with that? What young player or players do they think they can add? Sarr already famously sees himself as a 4 so maybe they go huge and make Walk an offer. They can still do everything else they want to do while they wait the couple days.

The more likely scenario is Indiana or LA want to acquire him through sign and trade and we get a first for playing along.

Eh....kinda feels like cope to me. I'm sure the effort is nice and all for Kessler's camp, but the reality of the situation is that the Jazz are at the will of other teams. The two week is pretty meaningless especially with tampering. The Jazz signed up for this gambit where they win if the cap space becomes meaningful and/or Kessler gets no offers gets squeezed by the market. That's just the reality of the situation.

I don't see a sign and trade materializing, and if it does we won't be getting a ton back. It's more likely he gets traded during the season....which isn't likely either.

 

[framer]

From a value perspective it seems like a huge mistake to prefer keeping Lauri and losing the pick over trading Lauri and keeping the pick, unless you don’t think you can get equal value for Lauri.

We cannot get equal value for Lauri.

 

[rippimpc]

We cannot get equal value for Lauri.

I suppose next question is what value is there, and if the net differential is greater than the risk adjusted value of the pick.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Eh....kinda feels like cope to me. I'm sure the effort is nice and all for Kessler's camp, but the reality of the situation is that the Jazz are at the will of other teams. The two week is pretty meaningless especially with tampering. The Jazz signed up for this gambit where they win if the cap space becomes meaningful and/or Kessler gets no offers gets squeezed by the market. That's just the reality of the situation.

I don't see a sign and trade materializing, and if it does we won't be getting a ton back. It's more likely he gets traded during the season....which isn't likely either.

Maybe... a few guys have signed in that window. Naz Reid is the one I can think of but pretty sure there are a couple others. If it happens its likely because we were the best offer out there and the terms are acceptable.

If I was guessing... I think its like a 50% chance he is back. 35% chance he gets traded (sign and trade is very much on the radar imo) and 15% chance he tells the Jazz to eff off and signs a deal so big with like 3+1 language that the Jazz are worried it isn't as asset.

I'm sure in their minds they think he could get squeezed but I think that is absolutely misreading the market in a way that is comical for a "professional". Last year's FA market/landscape is wildly different than this summers market. Walker a much easier fit than Giddey and JK (who just actually isn't good lol).

Indiana with a Toppin/contracts plus a first sign and trade is totally reasonable. Or a double sign and trade with Mathurin and maybe seconds or a protected first... or Jarace Walker (meh).

Lakers is tricky with all the balls in the air but I could see them offering a first if it gets them terms they like rather than making a toxic offer. I could also see the Lakers making an offer this year so that they have the low capholds of AR and WK and can add other stuff in FA and then retain those guys but I haven't worked out all that math. They might need us to eat Vanderbilt's deal in that scenario.

 

[framer]

I think the issue is relationships. Jazz did same thing with Hayward and he never got over it.

There was never a world where Haywood passes on the Celtics and his mentor for that assembly of the Utah Jazz. His poison pill contract just made it happen a year earlier.

 

[rippimpc]

There was never a world where Haywood passes on the Celtics and his mentor for that assembly of the Utah Jazz. His poison pill contract just made it happen a year earlier.

Maybe. Jazz certainly didn’t help themselves.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There was never a world where Haywood passes on the Celtics and his mentor for that assembly of the Utah Jazz. His poison pill contract just made it happen a year earlier.

They don't have space the next year if the contract is longer. It also could have been two years longer... in which time we would have had Donny, Rudy, prime Haywoodz.

It also would have been at a lower AV as the deal fell apart when we wanted him to take Favs money but he wanted a couple mill more. It would have been like 5/70M.

It was a generational fumble and inexcusable for a professional. The cap spike was known and we just blew it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Maybe. Jazz certainly didn’t help themselves.

We blew it once the year before. We double blew it the second year when we could have locked him in for 5 years. They didn't understand the cap environment at all. It was a franchise altering blunder.

 

[framer]

I suppose next question is what value is there, and if the net differential is greater than the risk adjusted value of the pick.

Losing Lauri is not even close to the value of a number 9 or worse pick in the upcoming draft. There would have to be a LOT of backfill to make up that difference, especially as there a really great possibility of keeping the pick AND retaining Lauri.

 

[jom2003]

Well, DL was fired for a reason. Many reasons in fact