Jackpotting Around -Tony Jones Edition

[Tremendous Upside]

From a value perspective it seems like a huge mistake to prefer keeping Lauri and losing the pick over trading Lauri and keeping the pick, unless you don’t think you can get equal value for Lauri.

Once again: not trading Lauri at the 22-23 deadline was absolutely a fireable offense. That one decision set this franchise back like five years. It made zero sense then and it makes zero sense now.

Had Ainge sold (super) high on him, Lauri would've brought back an unbelievable haul of rebuild assets and all this tanking crap could already be over and done with.

Instead, they've wasted his prime, slowed the rebuild to a crawl, and looked like aimless morons.

 

[rippimpc]

Once again: not trading Lauri at the 22-23 deadline was absolutely a fireable offense. That one decision set this franchise back like five years. It made zero sense then and it makes zero sense now.

Had Ainge sold (super) high on him, Lauri would've brought back an unbelievable haul of rebuild assets and all this tanking crap could already be over and done with.

Instead, they've wasted his prime, slowed the rebuild to a crawl, and looked like aimless morons.

We had a shot at Wemby and didn’t take it

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

The list of teams that would be willing to go "all-in" for Lauri don't exist. He's having a fine season, but more of a "not quite all-star season, maybe the 40th best player in the NBA" while having zero playoff experience to show if he can defend in the postseason. Meanwhile, this is his third straight year being part of a bottom 2 defense. The Pistons would probably give up Ron Holland and 1-2 firsts for Lauri, but no one is doing major offers with how much uncertainty Lauri brings.

I would imagine the Jazz are really disappointed with the offers for Lauri and with how bad the 27 draft looks, will just pivot to winning. If they get a top 3 pick, great, they can become a contender. If not, well, the tank failed miserably and the Jazz will be aiming for mediocrity.

 

[KqWIN]

We’re not trading Lauri. Biggest driver of is patience running out. But I also don’t think offers are there, and if they are there they aren’t close to what they were previously.

 

[baka98]

Can't wait to listen to this latter tonight!! I miss listening to TJ talk about the Jazz.

Ditto!

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What I got curious and would ask If in the conversation (not a criticism, but a question I'd have after what was said) for what was said, would be If a Kessler problem with Utah would be Utah the location, market size, etc, or would it be Utah the front office. How they value him, not just money wise, but how much they believe in him as a future piece and their willingness to give him the platform to showcase the best of his game.

I have the answer here. Pretty definitively. The contract issue is big... but not just that they didn't sign him but that they refused to negotiate. They would not even give him an idea of what they would offer if the cap space play wasn't available. Outside of that:

- The LA stuff is real. Walker wants to win. Jazz seem less sold on Walker... so he likely was excited by that opportunity to play and utilize his skillset as a roll man to its fullest extent.
- The Jazz don't like that Walker works out with his own people and doesn't stay in Utah all summer. Walk has his people and wants to utilize them. This is petty.
- They want him to do all the garbage work. He's cool with that but his numbers suffer because our PG play is less than optimal... that's okay as long as you pay him.
- They wanted him to improve guarding on the perimeter... he did... but the scheme isn't a perfect fit.
- He feels they painted him as a bit weak with the "Walker takes losing the hardest, Walker is his biggest critic" type stuff. He's not weak... he wants to win.
- I think he's had some clashes with Will but nothing that wasn't solved and wasn't more than two guys that want to win banging heads a little.

Here is my take... The Jazz would do very well to make Walker a good fair offer in the 2 week window they have before free agency opens (or whatever it is). They can still keep their cap space because you agree on terms and then execute the contracts in the right order.

They should not tell him to go find his offer... and he may tell them he is going to go out and do it anyway. I think there is also the possibility of a marriage of convenience or sign and trade to a team without space or a team unwilling to send a big contract offer.

My confusion is on why they don't just view him as a long term piece and treat him as such. They have really been wishy washy on him. Its weird.

Don't buy any of the unreasonable demands on his contract stuff. That was always nonsense... Jazz did not negotiate. Full stop.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We’re not trading Lauri. Biggest driver of that is driver of that is patience running out. But I also don’t think offers are there, and if they are there they aren’t close to what they were previously.

That and I think they just really like him and value him. I doubt any other star would have been this patient with us. He's unique in that way.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The list of teams that would be willing to go "all-in" for Lauri don't exist. He's having a fine season, but more of a "not quite all-star season, maybe the 40th best player in the NBA" while having zero playoff experience to show if he can defend in the postseason. Meanwhile, this is his third straight year being part of a bottom 2 defense. The Pistons would probably give up Ron Holland and 1-2 firsts for Lauri, but no one is doing major offers with how much uncertainty Lauri brings.

I would imagine the Jazz are really disappointed with the offers for Lauri and with how bad the 27 draft looks, will just pivot to winning. If they get a top 3 pick, great, they can become a contender. If not, well, the tank failed miserably and the Jazz will be aiming for mediocrity.

All-in offers seems like they are dead tbh. If Giannis can't get teams to make an all-in offer who can (that would actually be available)?

I think it would be a Bane type offer and I just don't think that is more helpful in the FO view than Lauri.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

The list of teams that would be willing to go "all-in" for Lauri don't exist. He's having a fine season, but more of a "not quite all-star season, maybe the 40th best player in the NBA" while having zero playoff experience to show if he can defend in the postseason.

The man is averaging 28 ppg in the NBA. No team would be getting him to "defend in the postseason".

Anyway, individually he's a neutral defender. Not great, not terrible. He'd do just fine in the playoffs. Right now, he's surrounded by some of the most atrocious defensive players the NBA has ever seen. Keyonte, Collier and Love are all in the bottom six of Defensive EPM. Key is now the worst. To quote Ron Burgundy – I'm not even mad, that's amazing.

Meanwhile, this is his third straight year being part of a bottom 2 defense. The Pistons would probably give up Ron Holland and 1-2 firsts for Lauri, but no one is doing major offers with how much uncertainty Lauri brings.

On the contrary. He's one of the "sure things" in the NBA. What you see is what you get.

 

[KqWIN]

I have the answer here. Pretty definitively. The contract issue is big... but not just that they didn't sign him but that they refused to negotiate. They would not even give him an idea of what they would offer if the cap space play wasn't available. Outside of that:

- The LA stuff is real. Walker wants to win. Jazz seem less sold on Walker... so he likely was excited by that opportunity to play and utilize his skillset as a roll man to its fullest extent.
- The Jazz don't like that Walker works out with his own people and doesn't stay in Utah all summer. Walk has his people and wants to utilize them. This is petty.
- They want him to do all the garbage work. He's cool with that but his numbers suffer because our PG play is less than optimal... that's okay as long as you pay him.
- They wanted him to improve guarding on the perimeter... he did... but the scheme isn't a perfect fit.
- He feels they painted him as a bit weak with the "Walker takes losing the hardest, Walker is his biggest critic" type stuff. He's not weak... he wants to win.
- I think he's had some clashes with Will but nothing that wasn't solved and wasn't more than two guys that want to win banging heads a little.

Here is my take... The Jazz would do very well to make Walker a good fair offer in the 2 week window they have before free agency opens (or whatever it is). They can still keep their cap space because you agree on terms and then execute the contracts in the right order.

They should not tell him to go find his offer... and he may tell them he is going to go out and do it anyway. I think there is also the possibility of a marriage of convenience or sign and trade to a team without space or a team unwilling to send a big contract offer.

My confusion is on why they don't just view him as a long term piece and treat him as such. They have really been wishy washy on him. Its weird.

Don't buy any of the unreasonable demands on his contract stuff. That was always nonsense... Jazz did not negotiate. Full stop.

There is no point to Kessler signing in that two weeks unless he himself is actually sold on the Jazz. Unless the Jazz is all he wants, it would be malpractice for his agent to not seek other offers.

The Jazz would have to play extreme hardball or give him an offer he cannot exist for him to agree at that time.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

My confusion is on why they don't just view him as a long term piece and treat him as such.

This is a soft, moody center who isn't switchable, can't guard out to the perimeter or recover, and can't be trusted in crunch time because of his complete lack of a go-to move in the post and a career 54.5% FT accuracy.

Tell me again why the Jazz should be bidding against themselves?

Kessler is a great backup 5 in this league. One of the best.

 

[KqWIN]

Doubt that the Jazz will be bidding against themselves on Kessler.