Jazz and Knicks discussing Donovan Mitchell trade per Shams Charania and Tony Jones

[Elizah Huge]

Also just want to point out that outside of the top-4 picks, order IS determined by how bad your record is. So if you are TERRIBLE and have the 5th worst record but don’t get into the top-4, then you draft 9th. So yeah, those wins on the margins matter a lot.

I want a guaranteed top-5 pick.

That’s not true. That only happens if 4 teams behind you jump into the top-4 which has a <0.001% chance of happening.

 

[PresidioTrojan]

Jazz should move Donovan, for sure, it just doesn't have to be this offseason. It could be next offseason. Jazz need to move him when there's a team that's anxious enough to do the deal we want. Let the urgency build.

When the Knicks are below .500 half way through the season and Leon Rose's job starts to become insecure, then they'll be motivated to close the deal. When the Brooklyn Nets are about to explode, they'll be motivated to reach for Donovan in a three-way trade. When the Kings are still outside the playoffs and their GM is on the hotseat, they might make a reach for Donovan.

Jazz will strike when the iron's hot enough. Ainge is really good at reading the market. Right now, everyone is going on vacation.

IMO, the urgency for moving him this offseason is two-fold:

1) Quality of next year's draft. Part of the calculus in the return on Donovan is what our own pick could be work next year. Hypothetically, picking #4 (no Donovan) vs. #14 (with Donovan) is a big deal in a loaded draft.

2) Why delay the inevitable? When you know the slate needs to be wiped clean, there's organizational value in doing it swiftly and decisively and having a clear direction.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Jazz should move Donovan, for sure, it just doesn't have to be this offseason. It could be next offseason. Jazz need to move him when there's a team that's anxious enough to do the deal we want. Let the urgency build.

When the Knicks are below .500 half way through the season and Leon Rose's job starts to become insecure, then they'll be motivated to close the deal. When the Brooklyn Nets are about to explode, they'll be motivated to reach for Donovan in a three-way trade. When the Kings are still outside the playoffs and their GM is on the hotseat, they might make a reach for Donovan.

Jazz will strike when the iron's hot enough. Ainge is really good at reading the market. Right now, everyone is going on vacation.

IMO the reward of an extra pick or two fail in comparison to a top five pick vs a top 10 pick and possibly the #1 pick. And Don is gone at some point. This draft is the exact draft you want to put all your chips in on.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Last January, the Jazz were 4-12 with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup with his strained calf and a couple people out with short-term injuries or covid.

Take that as our starting point, and see if we can get it down to 2-14.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Players that IMO we need to move in order to tank(+Mitchell of course):
- Mike Conley
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Patrick Beverley

Players that IMO we don't need to move in order to tank, but if we have good offers for we should move them:
- Jordan Clarkson
- Malik Beasley
- Jared Vanderbilt

this is why we make the Lakers the godfather offer for Westbrook/THT and picks.

We send Bogey, Bev, JC, Vando for Westbrook and THT 27, 29 picks unprotected... pick swap in 28. Saves them like $10M in salary and like 30M overall. Gives them their 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th best players on their roster. Who else giving them 4 rotation players and not hurting their cap space next year?

Agree to it now... execute it when the Minny guys can be aggregated.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Last January, the Jazz were 4-12 with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup with his strained calf and a couple people out with short-term injuries or covid.

Take that as our starting point, and see if we can get it down to 2-14.

Try most everyone.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I just have zero interest in keeping Donovan going forward now that Gobert is gone.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Last January, the Jazz were 4-12 with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup with his strained calf and a couple people out with short-term injuries or covid.

Take that as our starting point, and see if we can get it down to 2-14.

Yup, and we dont have Royce anymore. We will also likely gut the roster further by trading guys like Bogey and Beverly.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

IMO, the urgency for moving him this offseason is two-fold:

1) Quality of next year's draft. Part of the calculus in the return on Donovan is what our own pick could be work next year. Hypothetically, picking #4 (no Donovan) vs. #14 (with Donovan) is a big deal in a loaded draft.

2) Why delay the inevitable? When you know the slate needs to be wiped clean, there's organizational value in doing it swiftly and decisively and having a clear direction.

1) Jazz aren't going to be close to picking #14. Their defense is about to be bottom-5, and the offense is about to be average at best. Jazz are already behind Portland and Sacramento. Even with Donovan, the Jazz could be picking #6, like the Pacers last season.

2) We're not delaying the inevitable. We're trading Donovan when we can maximize our return, same as the Pels trading Jrue Holiday.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I kind of want to keep Donovan and gut the team just so I can be proven right about how little he impacts winning if he doesnt have a loaded team around him.

But honestly I will be proven right if he's traded to NYK also, because that team is also not loaded.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Keeping Mitchell is just dumb. I don’t care if you think we would still suck with him getting the 5th worst record vs the worst record is a huge blow to our lottery odds.

Say we did somehow get a top-2 pick with keeping Mitchell. Now we go into 2024 which is likely another wasted year. Then in 2025 we show some semblance of competing and guess what Donovan can opt out that summer. No thanks.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think we end up doing the Don deal prior to the season starting... but here are a couple reasons to wait:

1- It can mess up the Knicks season a bit by not having him in camp. The less time they get to plan the better.
2- They need to do an RJ extension. Do they wait until after the trade? Do it now and he is 100% off the table if they are bluffing about him being a pillar. That will lock them in a little bit or create some urgency to complete it so they can take care of RJ.
3- The longer it goes the more opportunity we have for other bidders to jump in like Minny did on Rudy.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Keeping Mitchell is just dumb. I don’t care if you think we would still suck with him getting the 5th worst record vs the worst record is a huge blow to our lottery odds.

Say we did somehow get a top-2 pick with keeping Mitchell. Now we go into 2024 which is likely another wasted year. Then in 2025 we show some semblance of competing and guess what Donovan can opt out that summer. No thanks.

The Jazz can open up two max slots next year if they want to.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The real risk to keeping Donovan too long is that teams see how awful the Jazz are without Gobert and their system players. People realize that Donovan can't carry the team to the playoffs, so his aura and trade value drop.

Jazz want to trade Donovan while people still remember him being the best offensive player on a team that won the most games during the regular season.

 

[NUMBERICA]

That’s not true. That only happens if 4 teams behind you jump into the top-4 which has a <0.001% chance of happening.

I believe it has a 52% of happening but I’m shooting from the hip.

 

[NUMBERICA]

The real risk to keeping Donovan too long is that teams see how awful the Jazz are without Gobert and their system players. People realize that Donovan can't carry the team to the playoffs, so his aura and trade value drop.

They’re all real risks but this is a significant one, yes.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I believe it has a 52% of happening but I’m shooting from the hip.

You said if we get the 5th worst record but don’t jump into the top-4 we fall to 9th. That’s not true unless 4 teams from 6-14 jump you. If 3 teams from the top-4 stay in the top-4 you are worst fall to 6th.

 

[Elizah Huge]

The Jazz can open up two max slots next year if they want to.

For who? Middleton and Wiggins? That enough to get Mitchell to commit long-term?

Do we want the privilege of giving him a super max and then turning into Portland and Washington?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

For who? Middleton and Wiggins? That enough to get Mitchell to commit long-term?

Do we want the privilege of giving him a super max and then turning into Portland and Washington?

I mean, plus you have all the assets from the Rudy trade and whatever assets you can continue to get by trading players like Clarkson/Bogey/Conley.

If you really think Donovan is a top 20 player who can continue to improve it's a thing you can do.

I think that team is probably significantly better than whatever the Knicks can create in the next 3 years.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I mean, plus you have all the assets from the Rudy trade and whatever assets you can continue to get by trading players like Clarkson/Bogey/Conley.

If you really think Donovan is a top 20 player who can continue to improve it's a thing you can do.

I think that team is probably significantly better than whatever the Knicks can create in the next 3 years.

That team isn’t winning a championship with Donovan on a super max. That is a half *** retool I don’t even consider that a rebuild.