What's new
By:

Lottery Standings

What is the likelihood that the 9th position moves up into the top 8 during the draft lottery? If there are any stats people around.
 
larryselbows said:
What is the likelihood that the 9th position moves up into the top 8 during the draft lottery? If there are any stats people around.
Click to expand...

Shooting from the hip, I'm pretty sure that isn't possible. You can only jump into the lottery. Otherwise, you slide back. I'm pretty sure the 9th worst record won the lottery last year, though (which would be a kick in the pants).
 
larryselbows said:
What is the likelihood that the 9th position moves up into the top 8 during the draft lottery? If there are any stats people around.
Click to expand...

I made a simulation of this last year. Come lotto time, I'll depress you fools by running the simulation over 1000 tests and give the results. For some reason, wiki doesn't have them.
 
I'll save you the trouble zoidberg. The 9th spot can only move up into the top 3 spots, or down to the 10, 11, or 12 spot. There is no scenario that will allow it to move up one spot.
 
bat said:
I'll save you the trouble zoidberg. The 9th spot can only move up into the top 3 spots, or down to the 10, 11, or 12 spot. There is no scenario that will allow it to move up one spot.
Click to expand...

That's why wiki doesn't have those probabilities. Well then my program is hog wash (unless I forgot this last year) and so are my skimming article skills.

Here's the probabilities:
If GS pick is #8

1st-2.8%
2nd- 3.3%
3rd- 3.9%
8th- 72.4%
9th- 16.8%
10th- 0.8%

If GS pick is *#9
1st-1.7%
2nd- 2%
3rd- 2.4%
9th- 81.3%
10th- 12.2%
11th- .4%
 
Weezur said:
That's why wiki doesn't have those probabilities. Well then my program is hog wash (unless I forgot this last year) and so are my skimming article skills.

Here's the probabilities:
If GS pick is #8

1st-2.8%
2nd- 3.3%
3rd- 3.9%
8th- 72.4%
9th- 16.8%
10th- 0.8%

If GS pick is *#9
1st-1.7%
2nd- 2%
3rd- 2.4%
9th- 81.3%
10th- 12.2%
11th- .4%
Click to expand...

Looks like we should probably want the 9th spot. It has only a 6.1% chance of moving up vs. a 10% chance of moving up if Golden State finishes in the 8th spot.

Isn't Golden States pick top 8 protected though?
 
GSW beat Sactown last night. That is a good win for the pick.

Edit: @Larryselbows - It is top 7 protected.
 
PKM said:
Goes to next year and becomes top 6 protected, I believe. If we don't get it that year, it turns into a pumpkin.
Click to expand...

Or it can turn into Paul Milsap,Bryon Russell,Shandon Anderson, CJ Miles or Mo Williams.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top